Kiwivillan Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Only just remembered I transferred Ollie in, in FPL a few weeks ago. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Genuinely can't really believe there was any criticism for his performance earlier. I can appreciate he can be a limited player at times, certainly one that can be improved upon, but one thing he did as well as anything vs Southampton was "link play" and he literally scored the winner to top it off with his only real chance which is pretty clinical as it goes. It was a pretty top performance in terms of leading the line away from home for me. I'd have much more faith in him going forward if that was how he was playing week in week out to be honest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 8 hours ago, ChesterDad said: Please - come on, you’re not seriously trying to suggest Ollie is anything more than average are you? Ollie is what he is - it’s there for all to see. If you see anything more than this - then fine that’s entirely your prerogative and opinion which you are perfectly entitled too. Completely agree. The forum for some can be extremes based on one performance. I would like Ollie in the team for what he gives with his work rate and pressing but alongside a new main striker as the man upfront because Ollie lacks the football IQ, finishing and technical side to his game. His presence in the team is needed but alongside the new striker in some capacity. The positivity towards Ollie is great but we know over a period he is not the main striker we need. I still think he should play off the main striker some how. This forum has for so long talked about his positives and his negatives and one game doesn’t change that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 9 hours ago, KentVillan said: Ollie Watkins is a flawed player, like pretty much everyone in the squad bar Martinez and Kamara. But he also has plenty of strengths. We have a manager now who knows how to exploit a player’s strengths and (to some extent) hide their weaknesses. I don’t know why the argument always turns into is he shit or is he class, when he’s obviously a classic mid table player. What I do disagree with is the post above saying he has something of the Sheringham about him. Absolutely not, Sheringham was a slow, composed player with great feet, and a very good finisher… only similarity with Watkins is in the air. I think this is the problem, the people like me who question Ollie isn’t about saying he is shit, far from it. I think he’s a great player but we all can see his limitations and we should be focusing on his best attributes and as @allani says, playing off another main striker can utilise his skills better. Somebody above said we are haters, which is bizarre, we appreciate his talents and are discussing how those should be best used. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozvilla28 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 We got other problems to worry about before Watkins to address. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 8 starts. Keep it up Ollie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, messi11 said: That’s a bizarre stat you realise, it includes assists of assists. It looks impressive because of the other names there but it’s not a useful stat. There are far more stats that are relevant that make Ollie look good….this is a stat that tells you nothing. The ref that gave the ball to Dougie to take the goal scoring opportunity for Ollie yesterday would get a credit in this stat he gave the ball to Dougie who crossed and Ollie scored… Edited January 22, 2023 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted January 22, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted January 22, 2023 Glad Emery has got him playing well again. He looked completely lost under Gerrard (as did many others). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam2003 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 hours ago, nick76 said: That’s a bizarre stat you realise, it includes assists of assists. It looks impressive because of the other names there but it’s not a useful stat. There are far more stats that are relevant that make Ollie look good….this is a stat that tells you nothing. The ref that gave the ball to Dougie to take the goal scoring opportunity for Ollie yesterday would get a credit in this stat he gave the ball to Dougie who crossed and Ollie scored… I know you’re joking but I presume that credit would actually go to the person who won the free kick, which seems reasonable. Thinking of the number Jack used to win where he wouldn’t get credit if they ended in a goal (note: obviously with our set pieces they rarely did!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) I was listening to The Athletic Football Tactics Podcast episode about Haaland. They discussed lots of data around him and the specifically discussed xG and players who consistently out perform their xG. The consensus is that there really isn't such thing as that. The top players data basically said that while players have hot streaks it basically returns to the xG mean. The referenced Ronaldo, saying one of the best players ever has basically scored as many goals as his xG now they have his entire career of data. Their brilliance is how they have high xG in the first place. So I had a look at Watkins on fbref and his time at Villa. His xG in first season was 14.5 and he scored 14 goals, is xG in second season was 11 and he scored 11, this season his xG 5.9 and he's scored 4 goals. But what's most interesting is his xG per 90. It's 0.39, 0.34, 0.35 meaning he's still consistent in terms of the chances getting. He's just having a small bit of variation atm and it will revert to normal. He's a a goal in 3 striker and would be on course for a third double figure goal scoring season in the Prem. The fact he's only taken what 3 pens in the league in that time is also to his credit for his stats. Ollie is a very good player. People just need to accept he is a team player and a 1 in 3 scorer at present. If Emery improves him to get him higher xG then he will score at that rate. Edited January 28, 2023 by CVByrne 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Just to add to the Toney comparison. Their seasons in PL per 90 stats Toney non penalty xG+xA = 0.45 and 0.55, Watkins is 0.49, 0.43, 0.47 Watkins non penalty xG are - 0.35, 0.32, 0.35 Toney is 0.26, 0.42 Toney gets and scores a lot of Penalties and that skews hit goals hence fair comparison is npxG Watkins is a very good player we need to let Emery work with him and get more attacking support for him and he will score goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentfordnylons Posted January 31, 2023 Visiting Supporter Share Posted January 31, 2023 Having watched both players over many games I don’t need stats to tell me who is the most effective player is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicon Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 30 minutes ago, Brentfordnylons said: Having watched both players over many games I don’t need stats to tell me who is the most effective player is. There's no way I'd swap Watkins for Toney. Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom13 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 On 29/01/2023 at 09:24, CVByrne said: Just to add to the Toney comparison. Their seasons in PL per 90 stats Toney non penalty xG+xA = 0.45 and 0.55, Watkins is 0.49, 0.43, 0.47 Watkins non penalty xG are - 0.35, 0.32, 0.35 Toney is 0.26, 0.42 Toney gets and scores a lot of Penalties and that skews hit goals hence fair comparison is npxG Watkins is a very good player we need to let Emery work with him and get more attacking support for him and he will score goals. You can look at these numbers all you like, the fact remains that Ollie has huge weaknesses in his game. Seen with our eyes on numerous occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Tom13 said: You can look at these numbers all you like, the fact remains that Ollie has huge weaknesses in his game. Seen with our eyes on numerous occasions. I'm saying your eyes are wrong (and this fits for people in general). It's full of all the standard human biases which is why data is so crucial in everything. What's clear is players have different levels of form and Watkins has hot and cold steaks but overall his xG is consistent and he scores to that level over a season. This is why he is consistently picked. I think he can improve in his xG in that he can fashion better chances and more chances. But to the question of does he score above below or at the level of chances he's getting getting the answer is clear he scores at his xG over a season. So he's perfectly good at finishing off his chances we just focus on the ones he misses and his cold streaks and not his total numbers over a full season. He's a streaky Striker Edited January 31, 2023 by CVByrne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom13 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I'm not saying he doesn't have strengths, but his weaknesses are glaring. It's not just chances he misses, it's a lot more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted January 31, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, lexicon said: There's no way I'd swap Watkins for Toney. Not a chance. I'd have them both. Crazy betting antics aside, I like Toney a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 If he didn’t have his weaknesses he probably wouldn’t be playing for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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