Generic Virus Thread

[sidcow]

9 hours ago, Davkaus said:

His point was accurate, but I'm surprised someone didn't knock him out.

"If you can't be reasonable, you're fired" after screaming at people and calling them really bad people, at work. Can you imagine someone talking to an employee like that in a normal workplace? Absolutely ridiculous.

As I say, I agree with what he said when you boil it down to the point he made, but that's no way to speak to people. 

Me and the Mrs were talking about this.  It's probably a matter of time before he gets sued for workplace bullying. It's the way of the world now especially in America. 

[snowychap]

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'Have I got Covid for a second time?'

Quote

Dr John Wright of Bradford Royal Infirmary had tests in the summer which implied that he probably had Covid without symptoms early in the pandemic. But last week he had a swab test that came back positive. So were those earlier test results misleading, or has he now had it twice?

...more

One thing that suggests there may be some problems in the immediate future is the following:

Quote

...I began a 10-day isolation, together with my wife, Helen. Also a front-line medic, Helen had been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine on Thursday, at almost exactly the same time as my two positive self-test results. Immunity with the Pfizer vaccine takes off reasonably quickly, with some protection occurring by day 12 after the first dose, but the full immune effect isn't felt until a week after the second dose.

So here we are: I have the SARS-CoV-2 virus and she has the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine - disease and cure, villain and hero, yin and yang living under one roof. But she still needs to isolate as she could be infected by me before her immunity builds up.

The self-isolation is not just because she may be infected by him but also so that she is not in a position where she may transmit it to someone else.

An issue is that he (and others) are making the assumption that, with the vaccination and any immunity, there comes no possibility of onward transmission but, though the researchers and developers of the vaccines suggest that they think there's a good chance of it having an effect on onward transmission (i.e. reducing it), I don't think it's sensible to assume that those vaccinated can not transmit the virus (otherwise those claims would have been definitively made by the vaccine developers, surely?).

This will be important with regard to the legal and practical position regarding self-isolation for people who will have had the vaccine. Firstly, if someone is contacted by the test and trace team then they'll be required to self-isolate as per the legislation (I don't remember any wording in there about vaccination and I do remember something about a negative test not overriding the requirement) unless that legislation changes and secondly, is it likely to remain the Government advice (i.e.. for situations such as above where it would seem the Dr's wife voluntarily self-isolated) to isolate for a period regardless of whether one has received a vaccine?

[Awol]

Macron’s got it. Didn’t have that on the ‘reasons for no UK-EU trade deal’ card. 

[ml1dch]

This Christmas thing doesn't look like it's a very good idea...

 

 

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

This Christmas thing doesn't look like it's a very good idea...

 

 

I think they’re being pragmatic. Was pretty obvious from the public temperature test (sudden burst of media vox-popping in November) that many people simply wouldn’t comply with a Christmas lockdown.

If rule-breaking occurs on mass it undermines the willingness to follow them in future, so I reckon they’re going with the grain by not trying to enforce something they know won’t be obeyed. 

[kidlewis]

40 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

This Christmas thing doesn't look like it's a very good idea...

 

 

We have the country largely in tier three which is almost the same as full lockdown aside fr all education being open and business slightly more relaxed.

I wonder if it’s schools mixing across the board driving infections?

from looking at the data it’s showing irrespective of the tiers areas are in, it’s not driving down infections very much at all 

[markavfc40]

2 minutes ago, kidlewis said:

We have the country largely in tier three which is almost the same as full lockdown aside fr all education being open and business slightly more relaxed.

I wonder if it’s schools mixing across the board driving infections?

from looking at the data it’s showing irrespective of the tiers areas are in, it’s not driving down infections very much at all 

Tier three is nothing like a full lockdown in fairness as in addition to schools/unis etc being open you have all the shops (not just essential) hair salons and gyms etc open. The only thing that is closed is hospitality. 

[HanoiVillan]

If you want to be super morbid and/or hyper local, the ONS has now released a spreadsheet detailing all deaths from covid-19 and from other causes between March and November, organised by 'Middle Layer Super Output Area', or MSOA, which is just a fancy name for a small area involving the streets around you (they are about 10% of a constituency, ie around 7,000 people).

So for example, in my MSOA - Dudley 041, 'Norton South' - I can see that 59 people died between March and November, of which 4 were from coronavirus and 55 from other causes.

Dataset here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsduetocovid19bylocalareaanddeprivation

[snowychap]

The county-wide tier system strikes again.

Herefordshire (which includes Hereford with a rolling rate up to 11th Dec of 109.3) moves in to tier 1 - about 30 mins walk for me to get to Herefordshire.

Worcestershire stays in Tier 2 and it includes an area such as Finstal, &c. with a rolling rate of 1065 () and Malvern in which the majority of wards have a 'suppressed' figure (i.e. fewer than three cases in the week to Dec 11th) with the highest being Barnard's Green at 64.3.

If one looks at the overall figures: Herefordshire rolling rate: 50.8, Malvern Hills: 43.2 - I know lines will always have to be drawn somewhere but I can understand why people in some areas may be pretty pissed off with the tier system.

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, kidlewis said:

We have the country largely in tier three which is almost the same as full lockdown aside fr all education being open and business slightly more relaxed.

I wonder if it’s schools mixing across the board driving infections?

from looking at the data it’s showing irrespective of the tiers areas are in, it’s not driving down infections very much at all 

My kids school has had tons of cases and those are just the ones who have taken tests because they've displayed symptoms. I'm certain it's rife in schools. Probably a lot of asymptomatic kids because of age and prime working immune systems spreading and bringing it home.

It used to concern me my kids spent so much time in their bedrooms,  now I'm relieved! 

[PaulC]

On 11/12/2020 at 08:26, sidcow said:

According to an Oxford University poll a quarter of people are reluctant to get the jab. 

It just shows that despite the hugely serious nature of this disease which has brought the world to it's knees, the propaganda of a few nut jobs has filtered through to the general population. 

People thing vaccines are dangerous.. With all that's gone on, why on earth would 25% of people still not want a jab!? Totally shocking. 

Science has worked so hard to rid mankind of so many terrible diseases and gets junked by a couple of hundred idiots. 

Depends people can be reluctant to take the jab but still respect the measures that are in place. Its not always a case of not caring but being sceptical about what you are told. 

[kidlewis]

15 minutes ago, sidcow said:

My kids school has had tons of cases and those are just the ones who have taken tests because they've displayed symptoms. I'm certain it's rife in schools. Probably a lot of asymptomatic kids because of age and prime working immune systems spreading and bringing it home.

It used to concern me my kids spent so much time in their bedrooms,  now I'm relieved! 

Looking at the latest tier data, it’s pretty clear schools having a huge impact. Manchester reduced heavily but they had mega lockdowns far more than other areas and Liverpool had enormous test and trace operations.

the issue we face isn’t really down to people seeing parents for Christmas 

 

it’s the fact the NHS has been woefully underfunded and we have less than 1/3 the ITU bed capacity compared to Germany. 

we have a terrible test and trace operation albeit now testing much improved.

It annoys me that for the sake of the economy We need to be working, but for mental and state of mind unable to see family and friends.

The only way to be safe is to lockdown the country until everyone is vaccinated but that’s not possible, despite Karen’s on both sides saying we must or the alternative which is to carry on like there’s no virus at all. 
 

what some social posts seem to forget is that despite best intentions social behaviour plays a massive part in this and if you simply locked everyone down with martial law it wouldn’t take long for significant civil unrest. 
 

where I will draw the line will be if brexit impacts any delivery of vaccinations and delays the country getting back to normal. All bets are off on adhering to stuff if that happens.

 

the current government will hopefully implode and the Tory party will be all but UKIP in operation in twenty years time 

[darrenm]

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

If you want to be super morbid and/or hyper local, the ONS has now released a spreadsheet detailing all deaths from covid-19 and from other causes between March and November, organised by 'Middle Layer Super Output Area', or MSOA, which is just a fancy name for a small area involving the streets around you (they are about 10% of a constituency, ie around 7,000 people).

So for example, in my MSOA - Dudley 041, 'Norton South' - I can see that 59 people died between March and November, of which 4 were from coronavirus and 55 from other causes.

Dataset here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsduetocovid19bylocalareaanddeprivation

Fascinating thanks. Bromsgrove suffered in April and May but has been OK since. The 2nd spike doesn't appear to have caused any deaths around here.

[bickster]

2 hours ago, kidlewis said:

from looking at the data it’s showing irrespective of the tiers areas are in, it’s not driving down infections very much at all 

Not true. our region is still falling and Manchester is also. It just takes a lot longer to fall than people imagine

[bickster]

12 minutes ago, kidlewis said:

Liverpool had enormous test and trace operations

Again, two points on this. The test and trace has had zero impact, that is very clear from the data and it was only (until last week) available in one of the six boroughs), Two of those boroughs are and always have been lower than Liverpool, which in turn is lower than two / three of the others

[ml1dch]

 

 

[Genie]

 

[desensitized43]

4 hours ago, Awol said:

I think they’re being pragmatic. Was pretty obvious from the public temperature test (sudden burst of media vox-popping in November) that many people simply wouldn’t comply with a Christmas lockdown.

If rule-breaking occurs on mass it undermines the willingness to follow them in future, so I reckon they’re going with the grain by not trying to enforce something they know won’t be obeyed. 

They are being pragmatic as many wouldn't have followed the rules. Including notable individuals in the Royal Family and high profile Tories. Can you imagine if they'd kept the rules the same you'd have every journalist and paparazzi camped outside Balmoral counting the number of guests. That's the reason they won't do the right thing (by the science).

[Awol]

22 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

They are being pragmatic as many wouldn't have followed the rules. Including notable individuals in the Royal Family and high profile Tories. Can you imagine if they'd kept the rules the same you'd have every journalist and paparazzi camped outside Balmoral counting the number of guests. That's the reason they won't do the right thing (by the science).

Yep, the government is making national policy based on the Queen’s Christmas-bash guest list. 

Makes perfect sense when you put it like that. 

[chrisp65]

So over the last 2 months, I’ve done a fair bit of travel. Off the top of my head, I’ve visited:

Wigan / Bradford / Burnley / Bolton / Birmingham / Bromsgrove / Worcester / Harrow / Finchley / Barnet / Croydon / Woolwich / Exeter / Plymouth / Luton / West Drayton / Isleworth / Brentford / Chester / St Albans

I’ve done all that and managed to avoid catching the fungus. 

All arranged so the visits were finished by middle of last week. Ten days now since I’ve been out n about. I was **** determined to be absolutely Howard Hughes like on my travels and it looks like I managed it. Took my own food, took flasks of coffee and packs of biscuits, fuelled up to the brim to do visits knowing I could get back to the same one petrol station rather than using randoms.

Weirdly nerve racking, travelling around knowing I really really don’t want to eat Christmas dinner on my own sat out the garage.

(just in case anyone suggests I could be Typhoid Mary, I know I was clear at the start, and I’m 10 days home after my last trip out)

 

You watch me catch something in Lidl on the weekend...