Generic Virus Thread

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

55 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

There's some evidence from South Africa but our situation and theirs arent a direct comparison because...

- It's summer in SA

- Their population is signaficantly younger than ours

- Their vaccination rates are different, both in sheer number, but also the type of vaccine used (We used AZ to vaccinate the elderly and it appears this is an inferior vaccine)

- Their population lives in very different conditions (shanty towns etc)

- Their natural immunity rate is different because they've not had the "waves" of infection we've had.

 

Some of the above are to our benefit and others to our detriment. It's all very complex.

In addition…South Africa has:

- Higher poverty levels

- A much larger incidence of illnesses such as TB, HIV/AIDS and Malaria.

- They have fully vaccinated (two dose) only ~25% of the population

NB: They’re currently experiencing around 25 deaths per day since Nov 23rd  (unsure as to how many have been Omicron)

In terms of vaccines: I keep seeing people asking (not necessarily here) why they need a third. There are many vaccination protocols that are a three dose schedule. Get a booster. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Morley_crosses_to_Withe

[a m ole]

29 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It depends what you mean by 'proved'. There is no gold standard research on this yet, no, because it is still too new. However, there are a lot of observations from South African doctors suggesting that the ratio of patients with severe illness is way down. 

We are in a gap where we do not have 'proof' but we do have lots of observations, all pointing in one direction. 

Agree, I’m conflicted because I think it’s likely not much to worry about (further than the original set of bastard virus’) but also think we should still exercise some caution before the picture becomes clearer.

 

[nick76]

18 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

To be honest, I think you're right to do so. We need to resist the temptation of getting into 'social distancing' to reduce the load on the health service until it literally cannot be avoided. We cannot be having a 'new normal' where we get locked in our houses every winter to reduce the annual NHS winter crisis. 

So your suggestion is everybody go about their business and the NHS gets overloaded, more people die and our 1st line suffer….

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

7 hours ago, sidcow said:

It seems to me that a lot of people are struggling with the concept that a third jab is actually needed.

The problem the new variant is MASSIVELY mutated from what the original was, it's very different.

Vaccines WILL work but ONLY JUST.  By the skin of their teeth they can just about deal with it.   But people were mainly jabbed quite a while ago, so the vaccine in their system which at full strength can just about deal with this is now weak so needs boosting to a level where it can do it's job.

We're not going to need them every couple of months because the disease will start to wane naturally in Spring as it does, look at how low numbers were last spring and summer.

Next year we will get boosters again in the Autumn but they will be boosters based on the strains which are prevalent at the time, and any mutations which occur will only be a strain or two removed from what it was designed for.

You have to remember that all vaccines currently were developed for the very first strain which was identified 2 years go.  They've not been adjusted for beta or delta or Omicron, they are 2 years out of date.

From Spring onwards it will be more like flu where the vaccines are only 6 months behind and are based on the strains they pretty much know are coming.

Sorry, what!? That’s not how vaccines work! Read the text on the black background. Normal disclaimers apply: I’m fully vaxxed, booster booked etc etc, but some of the stuff that gets posted on this thread….

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Morley_crosses_to_Withe

[picicata]

55 minutes ago, nick76 said:

So your suggestion is everybody go about their business and the NHS gets overloaded, more people die and our 1st line suffer….

I'm sure that is not what HanoiVillan is suggesting. I would guess he is saying the this virus is here to stay and that we are going to have to learn to live with it and that means we can't afford to shut down/ panic every time a new variant shows up because we are going to get new variants every year. 

[sidcow]

10 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

Sorry, what!? That’s not how vaccines work! Read the text on the black background. Normal disclaimers apply: I’m fully vaxxed, booster booked etc etc, but some of the stuff that gets posted on this thread….

 

OK Buddy. I'm just taking bollocks. I apologise. 

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

So your suggestion is everybody go about their business and the NHS gets overloaded, more people die and our 1st line suffer….

Ultimately, we need to remember that the NHS exists to serve us, we do not exist to serve the NHS.

[Jareth]

Still a wee bit too early to say for sure but the point I see being made by a variety of folks is that South Africa are now at the point where deaths should be shooting up in line with infections from 3-4 weeks ago, and they are not doing so, yet. This variant could take longer to kill, or it's less deadly - we should certainly know more in a week or so. 

[HanoiVillan]

10 minutes ago, picicata said:

I'm sure that is not what HanoiVillan is suggesting. I would guess he is saying the this virus is here to stay and that we are going to have to learn to live with it and that means we can't afford to shut down/ panic every time a new variant shows up because we are going to get new variants every year. 

Broadly, yes. It's definitely a particular pressure around new variants of covid, but I think it goes beyond new variants. The NHS has a 'winter crisis' every year; in recent years, NHS bosses have started to talk of a 'summer crisis' during August as well. This was all pre-covid. I really think it's very important that we don't normalise lockdowns or legalised social distancing measures to the extent that they come to be seen as a reasonable or appropriate step to take once or twice a year, and I think you can see the discourse beginning to go in that direction.

The solution, ultimately, is increasing NHS capacity and funding. But that's not a short-term solution, it takes half a decade or more to train a doctor. In the meantime, we cannot simply shut down every 6 or 12 months for the next 5 or 6 years.

[Rugeley Villa]

Just booked mine. Earliest appointment is 15th January . 

[Ingram85]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ultimately, we need to remember that the NHS exists to serve us, we do not exist to serve the NHS.

There won’t be an nhs to protect if everyone does what they want until this virus is actually endemic, not nearly endemic. Staff shortages and a lack of nurses graduating because why would any idiot want the job when other better paid less stressful jobs are out there are all breaking this institution. The public DOES need to look after the nhs I’m afraid as the powers that be aren’t and the staff are nearly broken.

[sidcow]

18 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

Sorry, what!? That’s not how vaccines work! Read the text on the black background. Normal disclaimers apply: I’m fully vaxxed, booster booked etc etc, but some of the stuff that gets posted on this thread….

 

Except 

1) as your text states it's primed for an attack from "the same virus". As I stated the virus has mutated beyond what the original vaccinations were designed to prime the immune system for. They were not designed for Omicron, it's mutated.  And even if it hadn't 

2). Boosters would STILL be needed as immunity does wain:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/covid-19/waning-immunity.html

Quote

Following this initial response, the immune system is still primed to ‘protect’, with longer-lasting ‘memory’ B and T-cells remaining in the body – ready to produce antibodies and defend against the disease if it’s later encountered.1,2 

Quote

What ‘level’ of immune response is needed to fight future infection?

Using knowledge and evidence gained from immunogenicity studies, scientists can establish the levels and mix of antibodies and T-cells a vaccine needs to trigger to prevent serious illness. These are called the ‘correlates of protection’.

 

In addition to what is already known from efficacy trials and real-world evidence, defining the ‘correlates of protection’ can help to determine:13

how well a vaccine is working (at a biological level)

if there are certain individuals who are more susceptible to an illness or virus and whether additional protective measures are needed

if there’s a need for additional vaccine doses or ‘boosters’

the overall immunity of a population, which can help guide public health decisions.

Quote

Are booster vaccines necessary?

For many infectious diseases, additional doses or ‘boosters’ are a standard part of the vaccination schedule. For example, booster vaccines are given for tetanus, diphtheria and polio.14 Boosters can help to elevate the level of antibodies and memory immune cells, and in some instances, strengthen their potency.1

Regulatory authorities examine data from clinical trials as well as real-world evidence to evaluate the level of immunity achieved following vaccination, and the benefits that boosters could provide for longer-term protection against infectious diseases, such as viruses and their variants.

 

[nick76]

12 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ultimately, we need to remember that the NHS exists to serve us, we do not exist to serve the NHS.

What a bizarre thing to come back with! I don’t even know where to start with this viewpoint as there are so many things to say.  I’m a little gobsmacked.

[sidcow]

18 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ultimately, we need to remember that the NHS exists to serve us, we do not exist to serve the NHS.

**** me that's an AWFUL attitude. 

[brommy]

6 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Just booked mine. Earliest appointment is 15th January . 

If you’re after a booster sooner, I suggest you keep checking. Last Wednesday, the earliest joint appointment at my local centre for me and my wife was 3rd January so I booked it. On Friday, a load of appointments for this week appeared so I cancelled 3rd January and we’re now booked in for tomorrow.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

What a bizarre thing to come back with! I don’t even know where to start with this viewpoint as there are so many things to say.  I’m a little gobsmacked.

Be as gobsmacked as you like

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

**** me that's an AWFUL attitude. 

You do know it's not an actual God, right?

[Rugeley Villa]

Just now, brommy said:

If you’re after a booster sooner, I suggest you keep checking. Last Wednesday, the earliest joint appointment at my local centre for me and my wife was 3rd January so I booked it. On Friday, a load of appointments for this week appeared so I cancelled 3rd January and we’re now booked in for tomorrow.

Yes, I’m hoping to get in earlier. I’ll keep a check on it. Unfortunately my wife isn’t getting her booster . She’s starting to lose patience with the whole thing. I’d like her to have it, and I’ve tried to discuss it with her . We are at opposite ends at the moment. 

[Genie]

I think the likelihood of it ripping through the population like nothing we’ve ever seen before is quite high. The data around that is quite mature.

We really need it to be mild otherwise the country is going go be on its knees.

[Genie]

Actual tweet from Ryanair