Generic Virus Thread

[LondonLax]

10 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Wikipedia tells me the death chance from Ebola ranges from 25% up to 90%, averaging 50%.

If that got loose the issue wouldn’t be the fact it killed too many hosts but even societies that value liberty at the cost of safety (like us) would absolutely lock down the country to stop it spreading.

Nobody would be pissing about with anti-vaxx crap or not wearing a mask if we were talking about Ebola instead of covid. Covid mostly kills old or unhealthy people so it’s easy for other members of society to think it won’t affect them - Ebola doesn’t care about any of that.

Arguably covid is in the sweet spot where it will kill a lot of people if it spreads unchecked, but apparently not enough to unite society behind preventing that happening.

No the most important thing is how long someone is infectious for before they know they have it. 

The first SARS in China was bad but you didn’t become infectious until it was very obvious you had it and were bedridden, it was easy enough for them to isolate everyone who had it and it quickly died out. Similar to Ebola, you spread that through the blood coming out your eyeballs and butthole You’re not going into your work Christmas party if you have Ebola.

The problem with Covid is there’s a gestation period where you don’t even know you have it. It gives the virus a chance to spread widely. Even if you die three weeks later the virus has ‘moved on’ and is in 10 other people by then. 

That’s why there is no real pressure for it to become less deadly over time, it’s doing a perfectly fine job of spreading in it’s current form. 

[Delphinho123]

This is never going to end. 

[hippo]

48 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

This is never going to end. 

Not professing to have the answer. But I wonder if vaccines will ever be the answer to this ? 

[hippo]

9 hours ago, sidcow said:

I want to know what the protection is with 2AZ + Pfizer booster. 

It's important for me and it's important for the nation because that the mix the vast majority of the oldies have had. 

I would like to know how long the booster jab protects for.

As an NHS worker - I got my booster early October - I'm already 2 months post booster - what protection do I have ?

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, LondonLax said:

No the most important thing is how long someone is infectious for before they know they have it. 

The first SARS in China was bad but you didn’t become infectious until it was very obvious you had it and were bedridden, it was easy enough for them to isolate everyone who had it and it quickly died out. Similar to Ebola, you spread that through the blood coming out your eyeballs and butthole You’re not going into your work Christmas party if you have Ebola.

The problem with Covid is there’s a gestation period where you don’t even know you have it. It gives the virus a chance to spread widely. Even if you die three weeks later the virus has ‘moved on’ and is in 10 other people by then. 

That’s why there is no real pressure for it to become less deadly over time, it’s doing a perfectly fine job of spreading in it’s current form. 

I don’t think that is the most important thing. Afaik the common cold doesn’t have a particularly long gestation period where you don’t show symptoms, but society has no interest in eradicating it because it isn’t a dangerous virus.

The danger posed by a virus drives how willing people are to give up their liberty to deal with it, factors like gestation period simply affect how hard it would be to do that. Covid is in a sweet spot for both, but nobody cares how well it spreads if it doesn’t kill people.

[HanoiVillan]

47 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I don’t think that is the most important thing. Afaik the common cold doesn’t have a particularly long gestation period where you don’t show symptoms, but society has no interest in eradicating it because it isn’t a dangerous virus.

The danger posed by a virus drives how willing people are to give up their liberty to deal with it, factors like gestation period simply affect how hard it would be to do that. Covid is in a sweet spot for both, but nobody cares how well it spreads if it doesn’t kill people.

That's how it should be, but not, I think, how it is. You can see in this very thread that a lot of people are addicted to case numbers.

[hippo]

25 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

That's how it should be, but not, I think, how it is. You can see in this very thread that a lot of people are addicted to case numbers.

But if everybody get it as the same time - even if the hospitalisation rate is very small say 0.01% - that would put severe pressure on the NHS and its ability to take admissions.

So case numbers are important even if the virus is mild.

[Panto_Villan]

23 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

That's how it should be, but not, I think, how it is. You can see in this very thread that a lot of people are addicted to case numbers.

But only because covid is still a potentially lethal disease. If Omicron turned out to be no more deadly than the common cold, nobody would care about case numbers, right?

[hippo]

9 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

But only because covid is still a potentially lethal disease. If Omicron turned out to be no more deadly than the common cold, nobody would care about case numbers, right?

They might do - because it could mutate with something else.

And also the timing if everyone was off sick with a cold could the country operate.

Sure a cold is nothing. But you wouldn't want a surgeon doing open heart surgery blowing his nose every few minutes.

[Genie]

17 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

But only because covid is still a potentially lethal disease. If Omicron turned out to be no more deadly than the common cold, nobody would care about case numbers, right?

Omicron might turn out to be no more severe than a common cold for many, but for some it will put them in hospital for certain. How many? If millions are pinged again for being in contact and have to isolate can we continue to operate?

[LondonLax]

2 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

I don’t think that is the most important thing. Afaik the common cold doesn’t have a particularly long gestation period where you don’t show symptoms, but society has no interest in eradicating it because it isn’t a dangerous virus.

The danger posed by a virus drives how willing people are to give up their liberty to deal with it, factors like gestation period simply affect how hard it would be to do that. Covid is in a sweet spot for both, but nobody cares how well it spreads if it doesn’t kill people.

Yeah ok, we can say both elements are crucial. 

We don’t worry about Ebola because it doesn’t have the ‘sleeper agent’ aspect even though it’s very deadly and we don’t worry about the cold because it is not deadly enough. 

A problem virus needs both elements. 

[AndyM3000]

Not fully understanding how this vaccine stuff is working with this new variant. If I've just had my 2nd one I'm still at risk against this new variant and need a booster? How can the first two jabs not do a lot but the booster has a 75% protection rate?

 

[Daweii]

7 minutes ago, AndyM3000 said:

Not fully understanding how this vaccine stuff is working with this new variant. If I've just had my 2nd one I'm still at risk against this new variant and need a booster? How can the first two jabs not do a lot but the booster has a 75% protection rate?

 

The issue as far as I'm aware is less the vaccines and more when people had the vaccines. Someone that was double shot 4 months ago isn't as protected anymore from Delta, let alone Omicron as the antibodies do wane over time. The booster merely tops up those antibodies and some of those antibodies still work against Omicron, not all of them it seems, but enough of them to potentially eliminate death from the menu. I'm not a doctor though so this is not legally binding medical advice, but if you just had your second shot of vaccine then you're probably okay. Now don't go licking door knobs in pubic or anything, you're probably not that okay, but as far as I'm aware the boosters protection rate is based on when a person had their 2nd shot. 

If someone has more knowledge on this correct me if I'm wrong. I'm certainly no expert on the vaccine. 

[Brumstopdogs]

https://www.ft.com/content/b55d7b24-cc0b-456b-aa02-c13498be8234

Quote

Austria will impose criminal fines of up to €3,600 on anyone over the age of 14 who refuses to be vaccinated, the government said on Thursday, under plans to make injections against coronavirus compulsory from February onwards. The move comes amid a shift across much of Europe towards increasingly harsh measures to crack down on vaccine hesitancy, as Covid cases surge and the emergence of the Omicron variant threatens to derail recovery plans. In a press conference at the federal chancellery, health minister Wolfgang Mückstein and constitution minister Karoline Edtstadler unveiled the first concrete details of the proposed vaccine law, announced three weeks ago. “I know that some are uncertain and angry,” said Edtstadler, describing the law as “the last resort.” But, she said, “in order to be able to live in freedom again, there is no other way but with this vaccine. There is a common enemy, and that is the virus.” The law would apply to all Austrians over 14, with exemptions for pregnant women and those with legitimate medical grounds, attested to by a doctor or qualified health professional. Three mandatory doses of the vaccine will be administered with quarterly deadlines while a central government register will be created to monitor compliance. Mückstein said he had long been opposed to compulsory vaccinations, but that recent events had changed his mind. “We have learned in the pandemic that we shouldn’t rule anything out and we shouldn’t promise anything,” he told reporters.

 

[trekka]

32 minutes ago, Daweii said:

The issue as far as I'm aware is less the vaccines and more when people had the vaccines. Someone that was double shot 4 months ago isn't as protected anymore from Delta, let alone Omicron as the antibodies do wane over time. The booster merely tops up those antibodies and some of those antibodies still work against Omicron, not all of them it seems, but enough of them to potentially eliminate death from the menu. I'm not a doctor though so this is not legally binding medical advice, but if you just had your second shot of vaccine then you're probably okay. Now don't go licking door knobs in pubic or anything, you're probably not that okay, but as far as I'm aware the boosters protection rate is based on when a person had their 2nd shot. 

If someone has more knowledge on this correct me if I'm wrong. I'm certainly no expert on the vaccine. 

I think that's pretty much it.  Have a look at the numbers in the  linked data above.  Basically in weeks 2-9 after the 2nd dose, you should be pretty much protected (well as protected as the current vaccines allow).  After 10 weeks, the vaccine effectiveness really starts to drop off.  This is only initial data though.  

EDIT: Actually looking back, I'm not sure on that for the AZ vaccine.  It's either an artefact of limited data or the effectiveness is about zero!  

Hmm, time to have a read through the UKHSA official report. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by trekka

[PussEKatt]

So,if thats the case then what happens after 12/18 months ? Do you have to start all over again and if so will this carry on forever ?!

[sharkyvilla]

53 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

So,if thats the case then what happens after 12/18 months ? Do you have to start all over again and if so will this carry on forever ?!

Maybe.  Nobody knows.

[sidcow]

5 hours ago, Daweii said:

Now don't go licking door knobs in pubic

 

 

 

[MellbergsBeard]

So is it going to be a case of booster jabs every 2 months then?

[Rugeley Villa]

36 minutes ago, MellbergsBeard said:

So is it going to be a case of booster jabs every 2 months then?

Apparently not. According to Matt Hancock he reckons we’ll be asked to have one annually. Booster jabs every 2-3 months just isn’t acceptable.