Generic Virus Thread

[Mic09]

1 minute ago, CVByrne said:

When people say "science" what they mean is modelling. Like in economics, forecasts of what "could" happen is useful for making decisions. The issue we have at the moment is the modelling on the spread of covid is much harder now than it was before we had the level of immunity we have now. You then add in a variant which can escape vaccinations but causes a milder disease and it's very difficult to forecast.

Like in summer when the "unlocking wave" forecast cases to hit 200k per day and they were near 20k per day on the date they estimated. The spread of the wave of infections now is very different. So a doubling rate of say 2 days for Omicron held true for only a week maybe before dropping to 0 in London. Knowing those parameters in advance for you to model is impossible. So the "science" was very very helpful in the unvaccinated waves ad modelling was accurate.

The issue now is the parameters have changed so much the modelling is next to useless until we have data to back fit the models with. That's what Government are doing now, seeing if any of the modelling predictions fit the data. (so far with London data it's better than any of the best case scenarios from Sage). 

I get that - modelling is necessary, but often hit or miss.

But what I don't understand is what sort of a modelling closes open space events for fans yet allows them to go to a filled up pub together. 

That to me makes little sense considering that outdoor spread is limited, and that only the vaccinated can now attend games.

What science is this based on?

[Guest]

So are people ignoring the Great Reset information as well?

[fightoffyour]

31 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I think we're at the stage where government guidance instead of laws restricting people is what is needed. People who are 10 days after their booster jab who are in their 30s is a different situation to someone who is unvaccinated in their 60s. Advice on minimal contacts until 7 to 10 days after your booster is good advice. Also on regular testing before meeting others. We need to be repeating this type of advice and trusting the majority of people will exercise good judgement. 

Creating laws that shut businesses, then getting the country in even more debt to pay these companies and staff to not work is the type of intervention that should be in the past now. 

I've caught Covid and almost certainly Omicron, in my 30s and exactly 2 weeks after my booster.

No symptoms for me and obviously if it was like this for everyone we wouldn't have even heard about this disease.

Luckily I took a lateral flow before having a few friends round and so it looks like I've managed to keep it contained, not even infecting my wife yet (I'm another confined to the spare room). So yes the key here is testing regularly, and right before you go and meet people. My first test line was so faint that it probably would've been negative an hour earlier.

Edited December 21, 2021 by fightoffyour

[nick76]

14 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I sympathize with your point of view, even though I disagree for most part.

But I think that 'minor inconvenience' is in the eye of the beholder.

It's not a minor inconvenience for someone running a pub and cancelling christmas parties. It's not a minor inconvenience for someone who works in hospitality, is 22, and moved half way across the country to secure that job and got made redundant (my brother was one of those cases).

It's also not a minor inconvenience for people who have family abroad - it's not just drunk teenagers going to Magaluf that are travelling, it's families who are worried about seeing relatives in France or other countries because all of a sudden a border might shut.

Masks/getting vaxxed isn't a biggie (for most people). But I wouldn't go as far as saying the current status quo is a minor inconvenience for a minimum wage person pouring beers at half time at Villa Park.

There are many stories out there who have suffered not only because of the virus, but of the implications it has on day to day living. 

Especially as the vast majority is now well protected from Covid via vaccine, but the virus doesn't seem to be going away. 

But in England we aren’t at that are we? You are taking my view and adding loads more restrictions which I haven’t said and then putting your point against it. In my view you have read have I cancelled Xmas parties, stopped people travelling abroad or anything like that? No

[CVByrne]

21 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I’m saying during the pandemic the current restrictions whether mandated or self imposed are a minor inconvenience…a few more restrictions for the next month or so, or the unknown part of Omicron info I would support to hopefully hold off any lockdown.  I’ve never commented or inferred any long term things.

My issue is that just because people are fed up of it doesn’t mean we can ignore or forget about it.  People complaining about short term inconveniences during a pandemic are spoilt in the modern world was my point.

 

My views against restrictions are precedent. Once Government put in legal restrictions on society which has over half the population triple jabbed then restrictions on society is now the norm for any future waves. Government getting more in debt to subsidise businesses is making the economic disaster the awaits us all even bigger. If a fully vaccinated population isn't the end to this then there is no end. Add to that there is no severe pressure on the NHS right now, we're at a low level of people in hospital with covid relative to last winter. The case isn't there to do legal restrictions. Countries who get over the covid fear quickest will benefit the most in terms of their economic recovery and ability to deal with the debt crisis

[bickster]

1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

With people in Hospital with Covid a fraction of the previous peak it's hardly under massive pressure yet. Issue is more staff out atm with Covid who will be back soon.

You realise they'll be returning to work and replacing other health workers who have subsequently tested positive. It's really not as simple as "They'll be back soon"

[Mic09]

Just now, nick76 said:

But in England we aren’t at that are we? You are taking my view and adding loads more restrictions which I haven’t said and then putting your point against it. In my view you have read have I cancelled Xmas parties, stopped people travelling abroad or anything like that? No

Sorry, I never suggested those things and please correct me if I'm wrong here:

You suggested the current status quo is a minor inconvenience in the face of the pandemic. 

I agree that some aspects like masks or getting a vax should be no brainers.

But the current status quo of ''will there be a lock down, will they shut the border, will I get to go to VP and be allowed to work'' still leaves many people in worry of their livelihood.

So I disagree to suggest the current climate of ''little restrictions but a lot of fear'' that this government are championing is a minor inconvenience. 

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, Dante_Lockhart said:

So are people ignoring the Great Reset information as well?

Are you talking about the 50th World Economic Forum or the conspiracy theory?

[CVByrne]

8 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

I've seen some graphs from a week ago that suggested we weren't far enough into this wave yet to know anything about deaths that may be caused by Omicron. It's hard to judge from this graph below but it refers to the 13th December as not yet being within the 'lag' period. I wonder if we now are?

 

 

 

Time lag to watch is hospital admissions / number of people in hospital with Covid. Then from there it's a lag to deaths. So 7 days after spike in cases you should see the spike in hospital admissions and then that should show up in deaths 7 days later. So 14 or so days after spike in cases you should see the death rate spike. 

So by end of this week we should see how big the spike in deaths are as the spike in cases began in early Dec

[CVByrne]

14 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I get that - modelling is necessary, but often hit or miss.

But what I don't understand is what sort of a modelling closes open space events for fans yet allows them to go to a filled up pub together. 

That to me makes little sense considering that outdoor spread is limited, and that only the vaccinated can now attend games.

What science is this based on?

I assume given Omicron spread speed is so high that mass events like that means spreading is much higher than Delta. So the parameter on outdoor spreading was very low and no if that's no longer the case it can have a big impact to spreading. That's my educated guess at the reason there

[Mic09]

Just now, bickster said:

Are you talking about the 50th World Economic Forum or the conspiracy theory?

I don't think that governments are plotting to 'reset' the world, whatever that might mean.

But It's not a conspiracy to suggest increased government power across the world sets precedent and 'normalises' certain actions that might have an effect on societies.

Let's not wear tin hats just yet, but let's consider that governments are unlikely to give up much of their current powers and it should be a legitimate concern for everyone. 

[Lichfield Dean]

3 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Time lag to watch is hospital admissions / number of people in hospital with Covid. Then from there it's a lag to deaths. So 7 days after spike in cases you should see the spike in hospital admissions and then that should show up in deaths 7 days later. So 14 or so days after spike in cases you should see the death rate spike. 

So by end of this week we should see how big the spike in deaths are as the spike in cases began in early Dec

So Christmas Day could have some good/bad news for us then

[CVByrne]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

You realise they'll be returning to work and replacing other health workers who have subsequently tested positive. It's really not as simple as "They'll be back soon"

If there was continued exponential growth of cases that would hold true. But as cases appear to have peaked in London those returning will be recovered and immune now. 

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

Sorry, I never suggested those things and please correct me if I'm wrong here:

You suggested the current status quo is a minor inconvenience in the face of the pandemic. 

I agree that some aspects like masks or getting a vax should be no brainers.

But the current status quo of ''will there be a lock down, will they shut the border, will I get to go to VP and be allowed to work'' still leaves many people in worry of their livelihood.

So I disagree to suggest the current climate of ''little restrictions but a lot of fear'' that this government are championing is a minor inconvenience. 

But the fear is because we don’t know the answer yet, the scientists, the government or the public.  They had early data from Delta saying one thing but ended up being different and the science community are being cautious re Omicron.  Fear is in everybody because it’s a pandemic, we just hope it is mild.  

I think it is a minor inconvenience because if could be so much worse but we have to get jabbed, wear masks and be careful.  The stuff you are talking about in

Quote

But the current status quo of ''will there be a lock down, will they shut the border, will I get to go to VP and be allowed to work'' still leaves many people in worry of their livelihood.

 we don’t know the future.  The governments are idiots but there is no way they could ease those fears could they, they can’t turn around and say none of that will happen, carry on normally because they don’t know, they are waiting for data and advice from the scientists. They’d be foolish to say everything will be ok, don’t fear! It could be so much worse, we’re are in a pandemic, thus it is only a minor inconvenience because you are talking about something that may never happen but if it does happen it will be a inconvenience but fear of it or the unknown of whether it could happen is only a minor issue.

 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

If there was continued exponential growth of cases that would hold true. But as cases appear to have peaked in London those returning will be recovered and immune now. 

This is just false, it doesn't need exponential growth to get NHS staff catching it, they are on the frontline, hospital admissions are rising, they are working in the epicenter of Covid. Hospital staff will still be contracting covid regardless of the growth curve, even if the growth curve is flat

[Mozzavfc]

29 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Luckily I took a lateral flow before having a few friends round and so it looks like I've managed to keep it contained, not even infecting my wife yet (I'm another confined to the spare room). So yes the key here is testing regularly, and right before you go and meet people. My first test line was so faint that it probably would've been negative an hour earlier.

I'm surprised there isn't more of a push for multiple testing. I was looking at getting a PCR test done before heading home to see the folks over Christmas, and there was hundreds of available slots for a test the next day. I expected everyone would be doing the same thing before seeing family and tests to be hardly available

[fightoffyour]

3 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

I'm surprised there isn't more of a push for multiple testing. I was looking at getting a PCR test done before heading home to see the folks over Christmas, and there was hundreds of available slots for a test the next day. I expected everyone would be doing the same thing before seeing family and tests to be hardly available

Paid for though isn't it? If people can't be bothered to wear masks, they're certainly not going to pay for tests. The supply of free ones needs to be sorted out though.

[Mozzavfc]

9 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Paid for though isn't it? If people can't be bothered to wear masks, they're certainly not going to pay for tests. The supply of free ones needs to be sorted out though.

Free through the NHS ones, not the traveling abroad so pay mates of the Tory party ones

[fightoffyour]

2 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

Free through the NHS ones, not the traveling abroad so pay mates of the Tory party ones

Ah ok, thought only the lateral flows were free. But they do give results much quicker for instant testing before going out/meeting. Less accurate but it's a good first preventative measure.

[hippo]

If we have to "learn to live with covid"

One of the first steps should be to increase capacity in the NHS to cope with covid admissions without cancelling elective appointments / admissions.

.....wonder if Boris would get that past his back benchers !!!!