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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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The govt planning for an influenza epidemic is here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf and page 19 explains the thinking on social distancing

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l) The combined effects of various social distancing measures (including closing schools, cancelling large public events, closing places of entertainment, and home isolation) if started very early on in a locality affected by influenza may have a significant impact on reducing transmission. In some US cities in the 1918 to 19 pandemic it is thought that the combined measures reduced R to less than 1 (from an R0 value of 1.4 to 2) however such measures would need to be maintained until sufficient quantities of pandemic specific vaccine became available. In the US cities, when the measures were relaxed there was a second wave of infection.

m) All social distance measures depend on compliance by the population which, in turn, depends on the social acceptability of the measures. Without good behavioural research on these it is difficult to predict the impact of such measures being deployed in a future pandemic.

This was published in November 2018.

What's weird is that the first point quoted seems to support drastic early intervention (with actual evidence from Spanish Flu) while the second point on compliance is left as an open question. I wonder if they found the time to answer that between November 2018 and January 2020... or if this has basically turned into a political judgment call?

If everything hinges on this perceived compliance issue, and nobody had firm evidence of how to proceed (although surely China / HK / S. Korea / Japan gave some hints...) then you wonder how the decision played out.

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1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

All travel to US from Europe (apart from UK) suspended

Not sure why the UK was excluded. Maybe because they can screen people easier if they all speak English? 

Businesses are going to get crushed.

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31 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Not sure why the UK was excluded. Maybe because they can screen people easier if they all speak English? 

Businesses are going to get crushed.

UK and Ireland excluded. Probably a Trumpian nod to Brexit, and included Ireland because of the CTA? Strange decision in any case.

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Sweden will stop testing people with symptoms now, even the ones who have been in the risk areas. Only people who fulfill these criterias and who also has underlying health issues will be tested. 

Getting out of hand and they can't keep up so focusing on those in most dire need of help.

Also appears that some of the countries with a more relaxed view on democracy like China and Iran has given up on reporting. Iran has not added a single new case to their exactly 9000 cases for 2 days now.

 

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Do we believe them?

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China’s state paper says Xinjiang ‘free’ of Covid-19

By BBC Monitoring

Chinese state-run newspaper Global Times has said that Xinjiang is "free" of Covid-19 and hit out at "rumours" about infection in people at "re-education camps" in the region.

Xinjiang government spokesperson Elijan Anayt said at a press conference on Thursday that some "East Turkistan" forces outside China were "telling lies to smear" Xinjiang, and termed this "ridiculous and ludicrous in every way".

The authorities say that all 73 Covid-19 patients in Xinjiang have been "cured and discharged from hospital" and no new case has been reported for "20 consecutive days".

Here's more of the BBC's reporting on Xinjiang, where China has been accused of mass internment of Uighur Muslims and other minorities.

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3 hours ago, Enda said:

UK and Ireland excluded. Probably a Trumpian nod to Brexit, and included Ireland because of the CTA? Strange decision in any case.

It's definitely thoughtful of him to unnecessarily reroute a load of international travel via the UK.

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