troon_villan Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, hippo said: Lots of things happening - but nothing nailed on !!!!! . ....fair play all bases covered there... Yeah, I would have been more excited had Jimmy Nailed something on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan501 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Summer spend is underway and im so glad the villa back in the prem but anyone else got that deja vu feeling regarding some of the links we have over last few days. I remember clearly lambert signing from lower leagues and it didnt workout players like webster, dack maupay are noy players we can risk our budget on i know we have wealthy owners but stability is key this year 3 teams is all we have to be better than the nucleus is good but i think we need better links. Just my concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, villan501 said: Summer spend is underway and im so glad the villa back in the prem but anyone else got that deja vu feeling regarding some of the links we have over last few days. I remember clearly lambert signing from lower leagues and it didnt workout players like webster, dack maupay are noy players we can risk our budget on i know we have wealthy owners but stability is key this year 3 teams is all we have to be better than the nucleus is good but i think we need better links. Just my concerns Don't worry we will be "There or there abouts" by the start of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan501 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MaVilla said: Don't worry we will be "There or there abouts" by the start of the season. Im confident just hate all thess links to championship over priced players like how defence is being reinforced first thats where we are lightweight. A top quality striker could thrive at villa park with potential service they could get but it needs to be a premiership regular imo. Edited June 19, 2019 by villan501 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-R Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Rob182 said: Everyone knows Thursday is signing day!!! I used to have every Thursday off from work and my main memory is of watching SSN because we signed all our players on a Thursday. I’m telling you. Tomorrow, something will happen We will all hold you to that and send you to hell if nothing happens 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Wezbid Posted June 19, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, villan501 said: Summer spend is underway and im so glad the villa back in the prem but anyone else got that deja vu feeling regarding some of the links we have over last few days. I remember clearly lambert signing from lower leagues and it didnt workout players like webster, dack maupay are noy players we can risk our budget on i know we have wealthy owners but stability is key this year 3 teams is all we have to be better than the nucleus is good but i think we need better links. Just my concerns It's nothing like Lambert signing the likes of Jordan Bowery. Any links to Champ players are generally the best of the best in the league and half of those are probably lazy journalism. Mahrez and Kante came from the 2nd division in France so I am more concerned about a players actually ability and potential to play the way Smith wants to play rather than where they are signing from. I understand to a point where you are coming from but loads of players helping to keep the likes of Burnley, Bournemouth and co up came from the Championship or even lower than that. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 I don't care if he got stick last year, Jean Michael Seri from Fulham would be such a bargain at 12/13m. So much ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoony Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, villan501 said: Summer spend is underway and im so glad the villa back in the prem but anyone else got that deja vu feeling regarding some of the links we have over last few days. I remember clearly lambert signing from lower leagues and it didnt workout players like webster, dack maupay are noy players we can risk our budget on i know we have wealthy owners but stability is key this year 3 teams is all we have to be better than the nucleus is good but i think we need better links. Just my concerns Literally not at all. I think your concerns are fair but I also think they come from the bleakness of our last few seasons in the PL. We have a set up from top to bottom that is so different now and I trust them. If we sign from the lower leagues I’m now confident there’s a good reason for it and it has been thoroughly researched. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-R Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, jacketspuds said: Based on our links so far, we could still see the below come in during the window... GK - Butland FB - Targett / Justin CB - Webster CB - Mings DM - Phillips RW - Benrahma ST - Maupay What do people think? Too many lower league players or should they be able to make the step up to PL level? I think there's been enough decent quality in that championship where those players could easy adapt to life in the premier. I would be happy with your list coming here and confident they could cause a fair amount of chaos in this league considering they arnt proven yet want to prove themselves. Bringing that attitude where a player knows he has to make it could be dangerous in a good way if you ask me and many on that list will want to show what they are made of in the top flight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaHatesMe Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: I don't care if he got stick last year, Jean Michael Seri from Fulham would be such a bargain at 12/13m. So much ability. So much ability, so little will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skruff Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: I don't care if he got stick last year, Jean Michael Seri from Fulham would be such a bargain at 12/13m. So much ability. Fullhams Gueye? Edited June 19, 2019 by Skruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3 hours ago, sir_gary_cahill said: I agree, Bardsley isn’t the best technically but he is an honest pro i think he tells lies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, villan501 said: Summer spend is underway and im so glad the villa back in the prem but anyone else got that deja vu feeling regarding some of the links we have over last few days. I remember clearly lambert signing from lower leagues and it didnt workout players like webster, dack maupay are noy players we can risk our budget on i know we have wealthy owners but stability is key this year 3 teams is all we have to be better than the nucleus is good but i think we need better links. Just my concerns A. I think Smith is the smartest manager we've had in a long time. Also the background staff hierarchy is something we should've had in place when Lerner took over but that horrible little goblin MON was dead against it. B. Our owners are astute businessmen and Edens has success with obscure team in NBA unlike Lerner who inherited everything. C. If you believe most of the rumours I have a bridge to sell you. I doubt even 20% are anything but made up. D. There's a lot of junk teams in the Premier League like Brighton or a main player sold away from trouble ie Bournemouth. One of Southampton's main goal threat last season was SHA twunt Nathan f'ing Redmond. E. Many of the good players in PL aren't that far removed from Championship Edited June 20, 2019 by Kiwivillan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Thug Posted June 20, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 20, 2019 5 hours ago, villan501 said: Im confident just hate all thess links to championship over priced players like how defence is being reinforced first thats where we are lightweight. A top quality striker could thrive at villa park with potential service they could get but it needs to be a premiership regular imo. Can you give an example of a "premiership regular" that you would prefer over the hottest prospects in the Championship? Harry Kane? Mo Salah? Or Maybe that Higuain fella that scored about 3 goals in a Chelsea side that finished 3rd? Here's a list of the top scorers from the premiership to help you out. Work your way down the list until someone who might be remotely "gettable"... ...and you get : Callum Wilson! Who came from... wait for it.... The Championship! Scored more goals than that Lacazette fella who plays for Arsenal. The others in that list who are even slightly "gettable" were all in the championship in the very recent past. Mohamed Salah 22 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 22 Sadio Mané 22 Sergio Agüero 21 Jamie Vardy18 Raheem Sterling 17 Harry Kane 17 Eden Hazard16 Callum Wilson14 Paul Pogba13 Alexandre Lacazette13 Raúl Jiménez13 Gylfi Sigurdsson13 Glenn Murray13 Richarlison13 Son Heung-Min12 Firmino12 Joshua King12 Ashley Barnes12 Ayoze Pérez12 Luka Milivojevic12 Romelu Lukaku12 Salomón Rondón11 Aleksandar Mitrovic11 Leroy Sané10 There's far too much snobbery in these forums. A team made up of the top players from the championship will finish top half of the Premier League. Spending our entire budget on some guy who is a "premier league regular" is gonna get us relegated. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Keyblade Posted June 20, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 20, 2019 52 minutes ago, Thug said: Can you give an example of a "premiership regular" that you would prefer over the hottest prospects in the Championship? Harry Kane? Mo Salah? Or Maybe that Higuain fella that scored about 3 goals in a Chelsea side that finished 3rd? Here's a list of the top scorers from the premiership to help you out. Work your way down the list until someone who might be remotely "gettable"... ...and you get : Callum Wilson! Who came from... wait for it.... The Championship! Scored more goals than that Lacazette fella who plays for Arsenal. The others in that list who are even slightly "gettable" were all in the championship in the very recent past. Mohamed Salah 22 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 22 Sadio Mané 22 Sergio Agüero 21 Jamie Vardy18 Raheem Sterling 17 Harry Kane 17 Eden Hazard16 Callum Wilson14 Paul Pogba13 Alexandre Lacazette13 Raúl Jiménez13 Gylfi Sigurdsson13 Glenn Murray13 Richarlison13 Son Heung-Min12 Firmino12 Joshua King12 Ashley Barnes12 Ayoze Pérez12 Luka Milivojevic12 Romelu Lukaku12 Salomón Rondón11 Aleksandar Mitrovic11 Leroy Sané10 There's far too much snobbery in these forums. A team made up of the top players from the championship will finish top half of the Premier League. Spending our entire budget on some guy who is a "premier league regular" is gonna get us relegated. There's a great article here, classing various strikers into tiers based on a variety of stats. Top Championship players hold their own and it looks like we've really done our homework on Wesley. Quote With Tammy Abraham’s return to Aston Villa looking less and less likely, the question of how to fill Tammy’s 26 goal, three assist gap for the club is probably giving Dean Smith restless nights. As well as adding goals and assists to Villa’s promotional push in 2018/19, Abraham is regarded by many as one of the best young English strikers around. He’s tall, quick, skilful, and prolific, amongst other things. So, how do you replace a 7.33 rated striker from the championship, with a completely different one who’s good enough for the Premier League? Well, Villa look to have signed Wesley from Club Brugge, who seems a good price for a very good player at first glance. But how good is he compared to Tammy, Villa’s other reported targets, and the rest of the Premier League? Whilst a striker’s goal contribution is important, this is difficult to compare across different teams, leagues and countries. Of course, what you can do in this case is look at a player’s fundamentals – things which create a pattern that says a player will likely do well in the Premier League, or a red flag that a player might not do very well in the Premier League. We’ve taken 23 different stats (including goals, assists, appearances, minutes, offsides, fouls, key passes, dribbles, and more) to compare Villa’s rumoured transfer targets with seasoned Premier League strikers. Then, we have created groups of players: Comparing all 23 different types of important in-game statistics On average, over the 2018/19 season For club and country, in all competitions Combining all those things, these groups show players who are very statistically similar: (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images) Group One Dwight Gayle – Reported Aston Villa target Michy Batshuayi – Reported Aston Villa target Kemar Roofe – Reported Aston Villa target Stéphane Bahoken – Reported Aston Villa target Mbwana Samatta – Reported Aston Villa target Romelu Lukaku Gonzalo Higuain Jamie Vardy Gabriel Jesus Marko Arnautovic Olivier Giroud Callum Wilson Danny Ings Group Two Ayoze Perez Group Three Christian Benteke – Reported Aston Villa target Charlie Austin – Reported Aston Villa target Daniel Sturridge – Reported Aston Villa target Javier Hernandez Dominic Calvert-Lewin Stephen Mounie – Now Relegated Glenn Murray Ashley Barnes Group Four Wesley – Part of the pride Neal Maupay – Reported Aston Villa target Moussa Marega – Reported Aston Villa target Maxi Gomez – Reported Aston Villa target Tammy Abraham Alexandre Lacazette Harry Kane Marcus Rashford Salomon Rondon Raul Jimenez Troy Deeney Alexsandar Mitrovic Group Five Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Sergio Aguero Son Heung-min Roberto Firmino Mohammed Salah You’re likely curious right now about why these players have been put into groups in this order – for example, it makes sense that one group (Group 5) would be full of similar, world class Premier League strikers. But, why is Ayoze Perez on his own in Group 2? To explain, we’ve used some statistical elbow grease to automatically test every single one of these players’ 23 different in-game statistics, against the same statistics for the other 38 players, and we tested thousands of combinations in order to find the groupings which combine the most “statistically similar players”. This method is called clustering and it’s commonly used in city planning, marketing, insurance and more. If you’re interested in how this works, there’s some information at the bottom of this article, but for now, what’s most important is that we explain which players look like the best bet for Aston Villa. Weighing Up the Winners and The Losers Group One: These players tend to: make under 40 appearances a season, score a medium number of goals (16 on average), and provide around 3 assists. We should mention that some players in this group scored 20+ goals in the season – however the computer has factored this in, and those strikers generally made more appearances in order to get the extra goals. However, the real weight in the argument comes when looking at the fundamentals, these players actually tend to keep possession fairly well. Some will say “But people have made actual videos of Lukaku’s bad touches for United!” – well this analysis takes on board all games for club and country, and that’s a helpful way of diversifying players’ statistics so that we can see their performance at different levels, in different teams. However, the downside of Group 1 is that they don’t tackle or intercept very much on average, they don’t make as many key passes or clearances, they give away a large number of fouls without actually win many fouls in attacks and they have very few dribbles. If you were to describe this group, you might say “Group 1 – talented and proficient, but not so good at the real team work”. Group Two Or should we say Ayoze Perez’s group, is quite similar to Group 1, but he has a better disciplinary record and brilliant tackling/intercepting, all the while with less aerials won. If you were to describe this group, you might say “Even smart computer algorithms can’t tell how good (or bad) Perez is…” Most of Villa’s summer targets seem to fall into Group 1 and it makes sense why – they have good goal scoring records and seem to be reasonably good in possession one way or another. However, they lack defensive (or pressing) qualities, and their passing and creativity doesn’t stand out. Group Three Before we look at the best of the bunch, it’s worth noting that Benteke and Austin fall into Group 3, which is the worst according to this analysis. They do tend to win aerials, have good touches, don’t get dispossessed often and also don’t often let players dribble past them. But their remaining stats in defence, attack, minutes and goal contributions are a solid level below the rest. Group Four This group iss particularly interesting. These players do lack good disciplinary records, but their dribbles, key passes, tackles, interceptions and pass % are all okay. And the big positives are appearances, minutes, goals, assists, aerials won, multiple Man of The Match awards, season ratings, defensive clearances, and fouls won. Now, looking at those players specifically, we can see that Maupay, Marega, Gomez and (thank goodness) Wesley are all the best fit. And, the algorithm as even placed them amongst Abraham himself, alongside Jimenez, Rondon, even Kane (based on this season, but he’d be in Group 5 for any other season), Lacazette, Mitrovic and Rashford. Sufficed to say, it looks like Aston Villa have made a good decision with Wesley, when comparing the stats. This group is full of “Prolific team players, who run, tackle, win 50/50s and do it quite consistently” Now consider that Wesley has also played in the Champions League and Europa League – scoring twice against Monaco. Yet, this signing looks set to be completed completely out of the blue, for a young, powerful, all-rounder, who’s scored in the Champions League – and no one really noticed him except Aston Villa and few others. Group Five Stands out as the best, and therefore those players sit outside of Villa’s budget and realistic sights. But it does, however, help to provide evidence that the computer is placing all of the season’s outstanding players correctly. This group would be described as “The biggest and best players in the Premier League.” Summary This model has some clear limitations which we have to address before taking this any further. When you take a step back and think about these players, you can see that Maupay (for example) has similar fundamentals to the traits we described in player profile of Group 4. But, he doesn’t win a lot of aerial duals (something we mentioned about Group 4 players earlier). So, you could ask “What’s the point of comparing a header-winning player like Morega with a nippy poacher like Maupay? Well, of course you can’t compare every player like-for-like, but what we’re saying here is that their fundamentals and performances looking at a range of traits are, on average across a season for club and country, similar. This is taking players from different leagues and putting them in buckets with established Premier League strikers, to show us where there’s potential and where there are red flags to consider. And it’s recognising patterns that, we as humans, could never spot. A lot of that is because no one has the time to track a player’s every touch, and key pass, across a whole season of games – even for their own team – unlike an unbiased test. However, this is just the first step a football club might use to help them identify potential. But you can’t “Moneyball” football. In a game with so many uncontrollable variables, it inevitably comes down to one thing: “Can Dean Smith’s team, take a 20-something year old lad, and get the best results out of him in our system, in the most difficult league in the world?” This is where the invaluable experience of scouts comes in, and make no mistake; none of us have the experience, built over thousands of hours of watching players, to finds those true markers of quality. So, if you take anything away from this article; have an unbiased, factual opinion, and then have faith in Villa’s team of professionals to make the best decision they can. (BRUNO FAHY/AFP/Getty Images) The Best Realistic Options for Aston Villa: Wesley Neal Maupay Moussa Marega Maxi Gomez Then: Dwight Gayle Michy Batshuayi Kemar Roofe Stephane Bahoken Mbwana Samatta Avoid: Christian Benteke Charlie Austin 11 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thug Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 ^ Thank you for this... really interesting article 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 7 hours ago, villan501 said: Summer spend is underway and im so glad the villa back in the prem but anyone else got that deja vu feeling regarding some of the links we have over last few days. I remember clearly lambert signing from lower leagues and it didnt workout players like webster, dack maupay are noy players we can risk our budget on i know we have wealthy owners but stability is key this year 3 teams is all we have to be better than the nucleus is good but i think we need better links. Just my concerns Mate the links are all bullshit. Very lazy desperate journalism. The signing of Wesley was perfect proof of that. They know nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-R Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Thug said: Can you give an example of a "premiership regular" that you would prefer over the hottest prospects in the Championship? Harry Kane? Mo Salah? Or Maybe that Higuain fella that scored about 3 goals in a Chelsea side that finished 3rd? Here's a list of the top scorers from the premiership to help you out. Work your way down the list until someone who might be remotely "gettable"... ...and you get : Callum Wilson! Who came from... wait for it.... The Championship! Scored more goals than that Lacazette fella who plays for Arsenal. The others in that list who are even slightly "gettable" were all in the championship in the very recent past. Mohamed Salah 22 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 22 Sadio Mané 22 Sergio Agüero 21 Jamie Vardy18 Raheem Sterling 17 Harry Kane 17 Eden Hazard16 Callum Wilson14 Paul Pogba13 Alexandre Lacazette13 Raúl Jiménez13 Gylfi Sigurdsson13 Glenn Murray13 Richarlison13 Son Heung-Min12 Firmino12 Joshua King12 Ashley Barnes12 Ayoze Pérez12 Luka Milivojevic12 Romelu Lukaku12 Salomón Rondón11 Aleksandar Mitrovic11 Leroy Sané10 There's far too much snobbery in these forums. A team made up of the top players from the championship will finish top half of the Premier League. Spending our entire budget on some guy who is a "premier league regular" is gonna get us relegated. I agree with you, half the names on this list wouldn't in my eyes out shine some of the talent one league down. Last season especially was a ruthless place in the championship for a good many reasons, one thing you can really say is there are alot of teams with two to four players that are giving there all week in week out. I felt the championship was a place where everyone is so fired up because promotion is on offer, that they would do anything to obtain it, they are realising there dream is just 46 games away and for those players they put in the displays of there life and do not forget what's at stake. I'd say building a team from talent one league down could easily bring good results, we would be crazy not to spend on championship player who we deem to be worthy, there are enough of them waiting for there opportunity. Edited June 20, 2019 by Dave-R 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rob182 Posted June 20, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 20, 2019 6 hours ago, Skruff said: Fullhams Gueye? You’re thinking of Brighton 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 The big problem with Championship players is they are so damn expensive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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