Dean Smith

[KentVillan]

2 hours ago, Peter Griffin said:

The data in the graph suggests that sacking the manager is the best option as it returns the biggest increase in performance. Also, regression to the mean is a statistical term to describe how random numbers return to the mean following an extreme result or shew. Football performances are not random, they are influenced by the manager, players and other factors from the club. If football results showed regression to the mean tendencies then the clubs like Sunderland would have returned to the PL

Once you've controlled for the ability of the manager, players, etc, you still have plenty of randomness which over time regresses to the mean (refereeing decisions, lucky bounces, easy/difficult fixture schedule, freak injuries, etc.). Perfectly reasonable to talk about regression to the mean.

[Peter Griffin]

2 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Once you've controlled for the ability of the manager, players, etc, you still have plenty of randomness which over time regresses to the mean (refereeing decisions, lucky bounces, easy/difficult fixture schedule, freak injuries, etc.). Perfectly reasonable to talk about regression to the mean.

Not so

[TRO]

On 03/11/2021 at 17:11, AvfcRigo82 said:

 

Without starting to jump to conclusions, it's not shining a good light on Mr Purslow either.

You ask any Liverpool fan about him. The air soon turns blue.

Makes me also wonder if it reaches a stage where the next appointment of a new coach is required, could they have a previous connection to him in any way? (John Terry - who suddenly just left in the summer, Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard.)

I have this niggling suspicion that something like this may materialise if it comes to hiring a new coach anytime soon.

 

They say in management, you have to be able manage up,but that requires a lot of clout.....I wonder if Dean has had a problem with this?

Unless we know the full facts its hard to know....but I do fear thay something, is not quite right.

 

[villalad21]

1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

But but, we're rebuilding

Rebuilding forever.

[TRO]

2 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Once you've controlled for the ability of the manager, players, etc, you still have plenty of randomness which over time regresses to the mean (refereeing decisions, lucky bounces, easy/difficult fixture schedule, freak injuries, etc.). Perfectly reasonable to talk about regression to the mean.

That is the case for all teams, its colloquially known as swings and Roundabouts.....Bingo yes, football No. There is too much controlled science that excludes it from that reference, as a whole.

Bingo balls are complete random.....Football has only an element of random, its mainly managed.

The central reference is the Best Manager and players usually have the most success, and that has been the case for years.

I am still of the belief, that this game is fundamentally simple, it doesn't require heavy scientific data to explain it......fairly simple folk have proven over the years, that with the right approach, success can be had.

The problem sometimes is, some can't see the wood for the trees....so they invent sophisticated solutions to compensate.

when a huge consensus says its a simple game.....its because it is.

Edited November 4, 2021 by TRO

[chrisvilla4]

I think it will be interesting how the players respond tomorrow, if they show some fight and spirit it might mean they are behind the manager.

[foreveryoung]

8 minutes ago, TRO said:

That is the case for all teams.....Bingo yes, football No. There is too much controlled science that excludes it from that reference, as a whole.

Bingo balls are complete random.....Football has only an element of random, its mainly managed.

The central reference is the Best Manager and players usually have the most success, and that has been the case for years.

I am still of the belief, that this game is fundamentally simple, it doesn't require heavy scientific data to explain it......fairly simple folk have proven over the years, that with the right approach, success can be had.

The problem sometimes is, some can't see the wood for the trees....so they invent sophisticated solutions to compensate.

when a huge consensus says its a simple game.....its because it is.

Maybe I'm thinking to simplistic, but this is how I always thought about it. I mean there's the strikers looking for space, as in Watkins and Ings. If there is no chance of scoring yourself, get the ball to either of them and let them do the business.

[Peter Griffin]

14 minutes ago, TRO said:

That is the case for all teams.....Bingo yes, football No. There is too much controlled science that excludes it from that reference, as a whole.

Bingo balls are complete random.....Football has only an element of random, its mainly managed.

The central reference is the Best Manager and players usually have the most success, and that has been the case for years.

I am still of the belief, that this game is fundamentally simple, it doesn't require heavy scientific data to explain it......fairly simple folk have proven over the years, that with the right approach, success can be had.

The problem sometimes is, some can't see the wood for the trees....so they invent sophisticated solutions to compensate.

when a huge consensus says its a simple game.....its because it is.

Tro,

Yes, you are bang on. The random elements will only impact the luck / unlucky aspects of the game but the control of the game by Dean Smith and the players is not random (it may have been random under Bruce ) and as such a statistical regression to the mean is mathematically impossible.

[Peter Griffin]

3 minutes ago, chrisvilla4 said:

I think it will be interesting how the players respond tomorrow, if they show some fight and spirit it might mean they are behind the manager.

I agree, I was going to post the same point but writing it from the opposite perspective but I thought I may get lynched. My thought was that if we do not see a response from the players it will suggest that Dean last lost the dressing room. 

[TRO]

6 minutes ago, chrisvilla4 said:

I think it will be interesting how the players respond tomorrow, if they show some fight and spirit it might mean they are behind the manager.

 I hope they do,and I hope they are.....but in the main, you have to demand it, by your day to day actions.

its the very least to expect.

[KentVillan]

30 minutes ago, TRO said:

That is the case for all teams.....Bingo yes, football No. There is too much controlled science that excludes it from that reference, as a whole.

Bingo balls are complete random.....Football has only an element of random, its mainly managed.

The central reference is the Best Manager and players usually have the most success, and that has been the case for years.

I am still of the belief, that this game is fundamentally simple, it doesn't require heavy scientific data to explain it......fairly simple folk have proven over the years, that with the right approach, success can be had.

The problem sometimes is, some can't see the wood for the trees....so they invent sophisticated solutions to compensate.

when a huge consensus says its a simple game.....its because it is.

And yet, the clubs that have the best sports science and data analytics teams are outperforming the rest.  

[PaulC]

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

Just now, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

I wonder how much pressure managers actually feel these days with the compensation available to them if they get the sack? Or is that unfair?

[TRO]

42 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

And yet, the clubs that have the best sports science and data analytics teams are outperforming the rest.  

and you think thats all there is too it?

Yes........But you are implying, they don't have the best Managers and Players too....Data analytics is not the only reason,

Data analytics, cannot be ignored, any more than the methods of yesteryear too....Data Analytics are an additional tool to aid the already elite managers to gain an edge, which they all seek.......not to supercede, the already established, empirically tested methods, but to support them.

For me the cognitive reasoning all the elite managers display, still reigns supreme, in my book....but naturally they will add to that, any way they can.

PS Don't be surprised if Conte, turns Spurs around and I would wager, it won't be DA that is central to it.

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by TRO

[PaulC]

5 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I wonder how much pressure managers actually feel these days with the compensation available to them if they get the sack? Or is that unfair?

Not unfair at all. Financial security takes a lot of pressure off. 

[TRO]

31 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Maybe I'm thinking to simplistic, but this is how I always thought about it. I mean there's the strikers looking for space, as in Watkins and Ings. If there is no chance of scoring yourself, get the ball to either of them and let them do the business.

[Peter Griffin]

18 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

And yet, the clubs that have the best sports science and data analytics teams are outperforming the rest.  

That is exactly the point. By employing data analytic methodologies the club is doing all it can to avoid getting lumped into the middle of a normal distribution and they are trying to become the skew and stay away from regression to the mean. The more information they have, the more they understand where the problems lie and they can then actively do something to avoid these problems

[foreveryoung]

18 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

Apart from being in denial yeah?

[Peter Griffin]

17 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I wonder how much pressure managers actually feel these days with the compensation available to them if they get the sack? Or is that unfair?

I think the pressure would be ego based as financial worries don't really exist at a certain level

[foreveryoung]

1 minute ago, Peter Griffin said:

I think the pressure would be ego based as financial worries don't really exist at a certain level

I imagine Smith would be thinking more about the financial side than maybe a Klopp or Tuchel.