Sulberto21 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I think Dean Smith should play LW as it's his thread. But fook me is this the Oxford University statistics forum? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, MotoMkali said: I think Watkins, El ghazi, Jack and Traore is better than watkins, Grealish, Barkley Traore. Because Jack gets the others more involved barkley does nothing for 30 minutes holds the ball up and breaks down an attack. Then he misses a few sitters then he finally scores and we praise him. Jack ends up dropping deep and his goal contributions drop. Barkley playing well or not doesn't make Jack better centrally no matter how much you try to argue or junk cherry pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: Jack ends up dropping deep and his goal contributions drop. Barkley playing well or not doesn't make Jack better centrally no matter how much you try to argue or junk cherry pick He comes deep as a LW anyway. And him having the ball more is better for us. I don't think it is coincidence that a layer scored 4 in 5 when Jack played as a CAM. Plus traore got 2 goals and an assist in that period as well. Which is the same production he has had in his 10 other games. Watkins didn't score in that period but that isn't for the want of trying I'm pretty sure he hit the post twice and was denied by 2 brilliant saves as well. I personally think all of our other players play better when Jack is in the centre and Jack himself has the ball more often which is literally our single best play. And I'm not cherry picking. A 5 goal contribution game has happened 7 times in the premier league. The fact is, it is damn rare and so using it to predict whether he would be better out left or in the centre in the future is pointless because it skews the data so badly. Harry Kane has done it once, Aguero never, De Bruyne never, David silva never, Ryan giggs never, Eden Hazard never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Vive_La_Villa Posted February 2, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 2, 2021 Bloody hell lads take it to the Jack thread. All the posts around substitutions are getting lost amongst the stats! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rightdm00 Posted February 2, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, MotoMkali said: Disagree. Our single best game of the season was crystal palace. Grealish was CAM and rotating 9n each side of the pitch constantly. This prevented anyone from man marking him which left him open more frequently. Against Chelsea he was fouled loads and created a bunch of chances from cam. Chelsea perhaps deserved the win but pulisic was tearing us apart. Against united we lost because of a bogus penalty and them not giving a blatant hand ball in our favour. But we created plenty of good chances against united. Excluding the pen we created the same xG in terms of chances. 1.5 each. Other 2 games were West Brom and Burnley. We had over 20 shots in 3 games in a row with grealish as CAM. We weren't super clinical but that has nothing to do with Jack's position. (although I suppose they are worse teams than a lot of others but still 20 shots is a lot). We created more chances and if we were more clinical we could have cruised those games. By your words you say Grealish played CAM for the "best" game of the season versus Palace. I just humored you and watched the second half til we scored goal #3. We didn't even have a CAM for the entire 2nd half. Barring the first 3 minutes he spends the entire time on the left wing with AEG in the on the right. It's a 4-4-1 with John and Douglas as the center 2. Here's his heat map which backs up what my eyes are telling me. 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GENTLEMAN Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) 16 hours ago, MotoMkali said: Well this is more a prediction for the future. Using past data points as reference. We are discussing whether Jack should play LW or CAM from this point onward. Therefore using an anomalous game within those calculations skew the data. Those means are supposed to be representative of what we might expect him to do in the future. I don't think we can expect him to get that volume of goals and assists over the course of a season. I mean that is over a sixth of his goal contributions in the premier league 8+6 and 6+9 is 29. Which means that increases his mean by about 0.17 a game which is a massive difference when we are talking about going from say 0.5 to essentially 0.7. There is no possible way we could predict future output with any semblance of accuracy with those means or these data. The best we can do is compare normalised goal contribution for each position. We can then use that as indicator to our he has performed. You could then accept/reject a null hypothesis. However in that case you use all available data. I’m unsure how removing data that is quite clearly not erroneous, and is a natural part of the population, is good practice. This would be tantamount to academic malpractice in my background. but still.... By your own analysis of this season and last with your corrections (even excluding Liverpool and questionable position allocation): Left = 0.47 goal contributions per game Centre = 0.33 goal contributions per game Even when stretched to just include the tiny 5 game sample as ‘CAM’ = 0.4 goal contributions per game. How does that support your argument that when Smith has played him in centre he has been more effective? Edited February 2, 2021 by GENTLEMAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparrow1988 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Bloody hell lads take it to the Jack thread. All the posts around substitutions are getting lost amongst the stats! Why are people posting about substitutions? We don't make any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 So from the substitution argument and now this @MotoMkalijust makes up what ever stats he wants. It's a new approach to arguing on here i must admit. Excited to see how that turns out long term. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Dean Smith. I think this is more relevant than the where should Jack play conversation for the last million pages or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post El Zen Posted February 2, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 2, 2021 I absolutely can’t wait for our next game. I was just thinking ‘I wish there was a Villa game on today’. What a compliment to the job Dean Smith is doing that is. Watching us play is the highest form of entertainment I can think of right now. In my three decades of watching, I don’t think that’s ever been the case before. I’ve watched us as much out of duty as out of any real desire to see us play, often dreading matchdays. Not anymore. I love it. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This season is similar to our season in 89/90 . We finished the previous season in 17th and then challenged for the title and finished 2nd. It's also the season I became a full time Supporter at the grand old age of 8. Hence my dislike for Liverscum and Scumchester United. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don_Simon Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 hours ago, Rightdm00 said: By your words you say Grealish played CAM for the "best" game of the season versus Palace. I just humored you and watched the second half til we scored goal #3. We didn't even have a CAM for the entire 2nd half. Barring the first 3 minutes he spends the entire time on the left wing with AEG in the on the right. It's a 4-4-1 with John and Douglas as the center 2. Here's his heat map which backs up what my eyes are telling me. Owned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 46 minutes ago, Michelsen said: I absolutely can’t wait for our next game. I was just thinking ‘I wish there was a Villa game on today’. What a compliment to the job Dean Smith is doing that is. Watching us play is the highest form of entertainment I can think of right now. In my three decades of watching, I don’t think that’s ever been the case before. I’ve watched us as much out of duty as out of any real desire to see us play, often dreading matchdays. Not anymore. I love it. An absolute credit to Dean Smith and the staff and board to have gotten us back to this stage. It's remarkable where we have come from in the space of 3 or so seasons! I remember feeling the same during the Ron Atkinson, Brian Little, John Gregory years, and I guess to an extent Martin O'Neill too, where in all those occasions we were often in Europe and challenging for trophies. Happy days are here again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-R Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 On 31/01/2021 at 19:13, bannedfromHandV said: I do worry a bit about burnout, we’re playing two games a week and coming back off a virus induced hiatus of 10 days, surely the science would point toward some rotation? I remember before the Chelsea game Smith talked about asking the players and them all saying they were ready (to play again, two days after beating Palace) - they will say they’re ready because they don’t want to be dropped. I know we’re not flush with options but I feel like another week ahead with the same starting XI might not be the best idea. I think the idea is the more games you play the fitter you are and in a sense it is generally true. When I used to play football every couple of days in this power league 5 a side and charity league on field with the lads, you do feel like your stamina cap goes up a notch or few. I mean we were playing like crazy at times for hours and when you first start you hit a wall but if keep on going you soon get passed that wall of tiredness, just have to keep going. Games get easier especially towards the end the more you play, I mean I'm an asthmatic and playing football used to help that out a real lot, at first its be a nightmare but as go through the burn in your chest, take a few puffs youd be all okay. There are those days though that you get up and eventually it does creep in whether you like it or not and burntout for a while you are, I can only imagine what its like at that level bet it's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-R Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, MotoMkali said: I think Watkins, El ghazi, Jack and Traore is better than watkins, Grealish, Barkley Traore. Because Jack gets the others more involved barkley does nothing for 30 minutes holds the ball up and breaks down an attack. Then he misses a few sitters then he finally scores and we praise him. I dont think at all, the only way it can be better is if Ghazi somehow has an ace game, I'd sooner play the other four. Barkley is much more better as a player than Ghazi. Jack is much more dangerous on the left as well and remember why Jack got moved to the left initially was because Ghazi wasnt bringing much from that left flank. Edited February 2, 2021 by Dave-R 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave-R Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Let's face it if somehow Barkley was on the bench against Southampton, Smith would of made a sub, why?? Because Smith would of trusted in Barkley to make a difference or has that in him to do just exactly that and affect a game as he did anyway against southampton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Willard Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sulberto21 said: This season is similar to our season in 89/90 . We finished the previous season in 17th and then challenged for the title and finished 2nd. It's also the season I became a full time Supporter at the grand old age of 8. Hence my dislike for Liverscum and Scumchester United. History does like to repeat itself every so often. Like the Kodija volley from a cross, it was uncanny like the original Tony Daly goal 28 years ago on the exact same day! I put a cheeky bid at 66/1 on us to finish top 2 around November time, just incase. Edited February 2, 2021 by Lord Willard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 13 hours ago, MotoMkali said: I think Watkins, El ghazi, Jack and Traore is better than watkins, Grealish, Barkley Traore. Because Jack gets the others more involved barkley does nothing for 30 minutes holds the ball up and breaks down an attack. Then he misses a few sitters then he finally scores and we praise him. So your issue revolves around Barkley specifically rather than Grealish's position? Why didn't you just say that? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 2, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Lord Willard said: History does like to repeat itself every so often. Like the Kodija volley from a cross, it was uncanny like the original Tony Daly goal 28 years ago on the exact same day! I put a cheeky bid at 66/1 on us to finish top 2 around November time, just incase. Great day put at Everton last day of the season, 3-3 draw, thousands of Villa in that 3 tier stand that rocks with you, Graham Taylors claret and blue army ringing out all the game, singing were proud of you, were proud of you at the end and GT on the pitch knowing he was going to England 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post darrenm Posted February 2, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 2, 2021 15 hours ago, MotoMkali said: No. If something is outside of 3 standard deviations from the mean it is excluded. This is common knowledge. It is acknowledged as an outlier than not Included in any further analysis. Thanks. I've let the PL know 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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