Dean Smith

[smg]

20 hours ago, KentVillan said:

I didn't believe it, but ran it all myself, and you're right on the stats. Here is the median xG for back 3 / 4 broken by home / away:

These look pretty shocking. There are some big caveats though:

• Most of the 4-3-3 games featured John McGinn, versus none of the 3-4-3 games.
• The home games with a back 3 have mainly been against tough opposition: Man City, Watford and Spurs.
• It's a very small sample of games with a back 3 to be drawing conclusions from.

One thing that did shock me looking at the xG (taken from https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/schedule/Premier-League-Fixtures - not quoting as it's a massive spreadsheet) is that we haven't won a game on xG since Newcastle on 25th November!!!

But here's perhaps a more useful visual - median xG when Mings and McGinn are playing / not available (counted the Leicester game as Mings out since he left the pitch after 20 mins):

That's a huge difference - from -0.7 xG with them both in the team to -1.9 xG with them both out. The former isn't great, but definitely good enough to be fighting for points in most matches and probably staying up. The latter is the kind of form that sends you down.

Smith needs McGinn back or Drinkwater/Nakamba/Luiz to really step up.

(P.S. I know all of this is based on small samples and there are loads of other factors that need to be controlled like quality of opposition, etc. so take it all with a pinch of salt.)

(PPS. Before someone says it - yes I know Brian Clough would be turning in his grave at all this xG bollocks, but in this case I think it lines up with what we've seen with our own eyes.)

 

Just call me Brian.

[Vive_La_Villa]

24 minutes ago, M_Afro said:

I really hope Deano was watching Ath Madrid tonight. What an absolute lesson in defending a lead. Unbelievable discipline and quality concentration. Not a single shot on target for Liverpool despite having 72% possession. I wonder how many shots Southampton will have on target at the weekend.10 minimum probably!

To be fair they been doing that for the past 9 years. It didn’t happen over night. It’s took Simeone several years for the team to learn to play that way and for the fans to buy in to it. Not many other fans would accept a philosophy of not having the ball that way and hitting on the break .  They do it brilliantly. 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Vive_La_Villa

[Zatman]

29 minutes ago, M_Afro said:

I really hope Deano was watching Ath Madrid tonight. What an absolute lesson in defending a lead. Unbelievable discipline and quality concentration. Not a single shot on target for Liverpool despite having 72% possession. I wonder how many shots Southampton will have on target at the weekend.10 minimum probably!

The best defensive team in the world. Maybe he should also have Konsa and Hause watch Baresi and  Maldini and expect them to play a similar level

[omariqy]

1 hour ago, Zatman said:

The best defensive team in the world. Maybe he should also have Konsa and Hause watch Baresi and  Maldini and expect them to play a similar level

Lol. Spot on.

I have serious concerns about Smith but I really want him to do well. Just lately he has made too many obvious mistakes for me. The persistence with Drinkwater is baffling to me. Nakamba has to play every game for us. 

[M_Afro]

9 hours ago, Zatman said:

The best defensive team in the world. Maybe he should also have Konsa and Hause watch Baresi and  Maldini and expect them to play a similar level

Not really my point and Southampton are hardly Liverpool to be fair!

[Vive_La_Villa]

8 hours ago, omariqy said:

Lol. Spot on.

I have serious concerns about Smith but I really want him to do well. Just lately he has made too many obvious mistakes for me. The persistence with Drinkwater is baffling to me. Nakamba has to play every game for us. 

Me too. Surely even in training they can see how off the pace Drinkwater is. How long do we have to suffer so he can get game time and up to speed? 

[LakotaDakota]

13 hours ago, M_Afro said:

 I wonder how many shots Southampton will have on target at the weekend.10 minimum probably!

They had 8 shots on target when they won 3-1 at VP a few weeks ago & we were actually above them in the league before KO...

[TRO]

On 17/02/2020 at 00:51, screwdriver said:

Drinkwater should start................ with Nkamba. We beat Watford and got a decent point at Brighton when they start together. Even with Mings the defence is brittle so Smith needs to put two sitters in front of them.

Drinkwater should be finishing games why isn't he fit? Why isn't Smith giving him extra conditioning to get him to last 90mins.

Smith is making it up as he goes along.  I bet he'll bring Hourihane back into the mix for southampton.

There was no need to take off Smatta today. Why not give him a full 90 they've just had two weeks break!

I'm sick of listeneing to his interviews now. talking about taking his wife to rome before the spurs game. disgrace. give it the big un about your champagne lifestyle when you've got a trophy on the shelf. not when you've been spanked by bournmouth and then. and after the game going on about the pen? I thought no pen in the stadium but when I looked on skysports website at home the first viewing I realised it was pretty much stone wall.

 

 

I too do not see a man overly concerned in defeats in after match interviews.....I see an irritated man, not an angry man, there is a subtle difference.....its the inevitability, i get from his persona too affable.

I get the keeping your cool ,theory, ......but you need that steely determination to deny the opposition, to go with it.

not convinced, we are approaching this scrap, in the right manner.

coming in to this league....your team has to be able to win 1-0 home or away......its difficult to score goals.

We have no idea how to win 1-0, we are just gungho and try to out score teams....thats ok in the championship, not in this league.

Edited February 19, 2020 by TRO

[TRO]

14 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

To be fair they been doing that for the past 9 years. It didn’t happen over night. It’s took Simeone several years for the team to learn to play that way and for the fans to buy in to it. Not many other fans would accept a philosophy of not having the ball that way and hitting on the break .  They do it brilliantly. 

But more importantly, you have to want to do it.....the manager has to focus on it.

I don't quite accept this argument so readily that it has been done for years and that is the main reason, not dismissing it, but i think its over done......its having the will and focus  is far more relevant for me...you have to want to do it.

There is no appetite in this set up, to play like that, despite us needing points to survive.

We have just presided over 2 managers with stark differences one cautious and one cavalier, both have deficiencies, when in fact we really needed a hybrid of the 2....... you have to be able do both for sustainability.

Its hypothetical, I know but someone ( who we don't want) like allardyce would possibly keep us up.....I still think Watford will possibly stay up ,too.

 

Edited February 19, 2020 by TRO

[TRO]

14 hours ago, Zatman said:

The best defensive team in the world. Maybe he should also have Konsa and Hause watch Baresi and  Maldini and expect them to play a similar level

Thats like going from one extreme to the other.....there are still ways we could do better at defending without using examples of Baresi or Maldini.....thats like just dismissing the issue of conceding 2 goals per game on average as inevitable......its far from acceptable or inevitable.

However, I do accept the club has not indicated, in their recruitment, that keeping clean sheets or looking for 1-0 wins was important......The majority of our midfield lack combative skills or the ability to deny the opposition space to play....in that respect the manager has hobsons choice, when picking the team, they are all much of a muchness.

[GingerCollins29]

Deano needs to sack off his footballing principles for now and play whatever type of football necessary to win games. 

Whatever it takes

[sne]

Honestly put zero stock into what managers say outwards to journalist and in interviews, just like I don't put much weight into what club representatives say about ambitions, future plans and strategies.

I can get annoyed or amused about it sure, but it has absolutely nothing to do with what actually happens behind closed doors, in training or in meetings.

Almost every manager has an outwards persona they use in press conferences and interviews and that's what we see. It's an practiced act. Obviously some times frustration or elation will shine through.

No one at the club actually thought we'd be challenging for the European places in the league this season, and the no loan's was also just words. We all knew that.

And that Smith is not foaming at the mouth in post game interviews after we've lost a game has zero impact on how he addresses the team afterwards.

[Mazrim]

49 minutes ago, TRO said:

I too do not see a man overly concerned in defeats in after match interviews.....I see an irritated man, not an angry man, there is a subtle difference.....its the inevitability, i get from his persona too affable.

I get the keeping your cool ,theory, ......but you need that steely determination to deny the opposition, to go with it.

not convinced, we are approaching this scrap, in the right manner.

coming in to this league....your team has to be able to win 1-0 home or away......its difficult to score goals.

We have no idea how to win 1-0, we are just gungho and try to out score teams....thats ok in the championship, not in this league.

There are probably like 1 or 2 teams who regularly or could regularly win 1 - 0. Liverpool and... somebody else. Maybe just Liverpool. Everybody else is conceding goals. But I take your point. We do need to tighten up.
Then I think, we have 3 kids at centre half and the senior guy can't do it all. Maybe it's right to just keep going for it. Especially against the poorer teams.

[Stevo985]

23 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

The way I see it ,is.Split the PL into 4 parts.Thetop5,the bottom 5 and the middle 10.

[sne]

1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

Guess Liverpool are beyond competition?

[TRO]

2 minutes ago, Mazrim said:

There are probably like 1 or 2 teams who regularly or could regularly win 1 - 0. Liverpool and... somebody else. Maybe just Liverpool. Everybody else is conceding goals. But I take your point. We do need to tighten up.
Then I think, we have 3 kids at centre half and the senior guy can't do it all. Maybe it's right to just keep going for it. Especially against the poorer teams.

Sheff Utd do it....just as one example.....even if we can't do it, it must be an aim towards it.

[LondonVillian]

Burnley have done it 4 years now

[TRO]

12 minutes ago, sne said:

Honestly put zero stock into what managers say outwards to journalist and in interviews, just like I don't put much weight into what club representatives say about ambitions, future plans and strategies.

I can get annoyed or amused about it sure, but it has absolutely nothing to do with what actually happens behind closed doors, in training or in meetings.

Almost every manager has an outwards persona they use in press conferences and interviews and that's what we see. It's an practiced act. Obviously some times frustration or elation will shine through.

No one at the club actually thought we'd be challenging for the European places in the league this season, and the no loan's was also just words. We all knew that.

And that Smith is not foaming at the mouth in post game interviews after we've lost a game has zero impact on how he addresses the team afterwards.

I disagree, i think body language and facial expression says a lot of the persona.

I accept what the say can be different, but body language is harder to disguise.

as for exaggerating the expectation for a European place this season, I don't think anyone expected that.....but equally they did'nt expect us to be flirting with relegation and having bookmakers having us as one of the favourites to go down.

after tonight we could be in the quicksand and I think you will agree, there is not much in our defending to suggest we will get out.

We are still in the mix, which is something, but I don't think the club quite expected to be quite as difficult as its turned out to be.

I knew it would be a struggle despite a huge amount of money spent.....but I never expected us to be quite so easy to beat, so often.....I didn't really see that coming.

[Tomaszk]

35 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Deano needs to sack off his footballing principles for now and play whatever type of football necessary to win games. 

Whatever it takes

He should be more pragmatic away from home no doubt.

[sne]

44 minutes ago, TRO said:

I disagree, i think body language and facial expression says a lot of the persona.

I accept what the say can be different, but body language is harder to disguise.

as for exaggerating the expectation for a European place this season, I don't think anyone expected that.....but equally they did'nt expect us to be flirting with relegation and having bookmakers having us as one of the favourites to go down.

after tonight we could be in the quicksand and I think you will agree, there is not much in our defending to suggest we will get out.

We are still in the mix, which is something, but I don't think the club quite expected to be quite as difficult as its turned out to be.

I knew it would be a struggle despite a huge amount of money spent.....but I never expected us to be quite so easy to beat, so often.....I didn't really see that coming.

As I said unless something extraordinary has happened most managers look and say the same thing after each game. It's an act or performance if you will.

I have no doubt Smith was fuming about the way we lost against Spurs, but he ain't gonna throw a tantrum in from of the media.

I think anyone who expected us to be anywhere except where we are in the league was being very naive and overly optimistic. 

I was certainly hoping we'd play better football and be both tighter at the back and better with the ball, but I still expected us to be around the relegation spots.

The squad looks like it does for obvious reasons so no need to go over them again. And there are at least 15 or so clubs with better or equal squads as us, a few of them are over performing and we are not. I'd say both Watford and West Ham "should" be above us in the table on paper. They are not. I'm really disappointed that we are behind clubs like Bournemouth and Newcastle, we really should not be. But swap those around and we are still in 17th spot. The margins at the bottom are tiny.