UFC/Pride/MMA

[hogso]

Well, shame I didn't watch that instead of going to the Villa. Any decent bouts?

[ArteSuave]

Well, shame I didn't watch that instead of going to the Villa. Any decent bouts?

 

Nothing of any significant quality, the main event was entertaining in a popcorn action movie kind of way. The first fight on the main card was a mismatch and one of the others end in a quick DQ. Strange night.

 

What if Belfort connects with a strike as Weidman exposes his head through comitting the shoot or gets caught in a guillotine? I can what if too, but seriously Weidman would be mad to overcomit to a takedown straight away because it would be inexperienced of him

 

 I'm aware there are lots of permutations for the fight. The reason I posed the question was because IMV, if someone states that "X will tear Y apart" they are convinced beyond reasonable doubt that this will happen (this is only my inference). In this particular case that's quite strange because X has a history of stuggling to defend takedowns from decent wrestlers and being fairly inactive on his back and Y has a history of taking everyone down.

 

I asked because I wanted to know what reason you felt this was not going to affect the whole tearing apart stuff. Do you think Vitor has overcome his career long issue with TDD? Do you think he's improved significantly enough off his back to just get straight back up? Or is it that he'll just blast him out if he even attempts a takedown?

 

There's a chance all 3 are true (though not a very big one IMV, hence the 20% chance of winning I gave him).

 

Overcomitting to a takedown wouldn't be the problem I don't think though, if he got far enough through to have a TD worth pursuing it he would finish it. It's more likely insufficient set up of the takedown that would give Vitor a chance.

 

 

The fact that Silva hasn't been taking his fights seriously (in my view) disqualifies him from GOAT status; he advertised "knock me out" with his sloppy technique, prancing around and having his hands down in the first fight and then employed a terrible technique in the second fight to injure himself...hardly qualifies as been 'destroyed', imploding more like!

 

The destroyed bit is more the winning every minute of both fights and them both being stopped in round two rather than particularly destructive finishes. Silva didn't take himself down or drop himself with a punch in the clinch in the second fight. He was dominated.

 

 

Machida's takedown defence is rather good and his striking is even better so I wouldn't discount it.

 

I certainly wouldn't discount it but he too seems to get taken down every time he faces a decent wrestler.

[Nigel]

 

 

 

Machida's takedown defence is rather good and his striking is even better so I wouldn't discount it.

 

I certainly wouldn't discount it but he too seems to get taken down every time he faces a decent wrestler.

 

Machida has one of the best TDDs under the umbrella.

[ArteSuave]

His TDD% is impressive and that certainly seems to be the line that Joe and Goldie push (The Elusive Sir Machida of Elusiveshire) and he does fend off a lot but I can't really agree that it's among the best. Davis took him down (twice?) before gassing, Jones took him down, Rampage took him down and (43ish year old) Hendo took him down. Even Sokoudjou took him down after a few months at Team Quest.

IMO the less publicised reason that stat is so good is the sheer number that are attempted on him. That is because (a) he often moves backwards and ( he's so hard to hit that people (who hadn't planned to take him down at all) can't hit him, get frustrated / panicked, deviate from their game plan and start attempting fairly rudimentary TDs.

That's not to say his TDD isn't good, because it is. Its just not 'that' good. For comparison nobody has ever taken Weidman down and he has never failed to take anyone down* (I don't think anyone has even gone an entire round with him without being taken down FWIW).

 

Edit - * to clarify, I mean he's never fought someone without taking them down rather than his TD success rate is 100%. That would be incredible.

Edited January 5, 2014 by ArteSuave

[Nigel]

I agree that he has been taken down at times but the fact still remains his statistics still show he is among the best. It doesnt really matter if the reason is that he has to fend off so many, was does matter is that he does.

 

Davis taking him down was a shock, but its no disgrace with the others, especially as he does not come from a wrestling background.

 

I also agree about Weidman being the better of the two in this respect, perhaps (along with Jones) the best at present.  However you have to temper this as his stats can be misleading having only 11 fights.

[Zhan_Zhuang]

It is merely a personal opinion based on Belfort’s impressive fights in 2013 where he dominated his opponents with his striking. Indeed it seemed to me that some of those opponents, notably Dan Henderson seemed lacking in their own confidence to impose their main strengths in the clinch or takedowns and impose this on Belfort. Again, Rockhold has greater wrestling experience than Weidman and also struggled to impose his skills on Belfort. Hence, if Belfort enters the fight against Weidman in the same shape he was in for those previous fights, he should enjoy the same speed and strength advantage over the champion.

 

Ok we can argue who has been the more impressive over the last year but I give the edge to Belfort. He has looked incredibly sharp over his last few fights and Weidman seems quite straightforward and flatfooted. Incidentally Belfort has faired well against grapplers only losing two by submission in over 34 fights, one against Jon Jones.

 

Machida has great takedown defense and has beaten wrestlers and grapplers equally as skilled or experienced as Weidman. As you correctly point out Machida's elusiveness is the key element in his defending of a takedown.

 

In regard to Anderson Silva we haven't seen a motivated version of him for quite sometime now in the UFC so my point remains in regard to him being his own worst enemy. It's a pity one of the most technically gifted fighters the UFC has seen basically lacked focus and intent when he got into the ring!

Edited January 6, 2014 by Zhan_Zhuang

[ArteSuave]

I agree that he has been taken down at times but the fact still remains his statistics still show he is among the best. It doesnt really matter if the reason is that he has to fend off so many, was does matter is that he does.

 

I've had to go and look up the statistics (thankfully fightmetric has improved recently) and Machida doesn't make the top 10 for TDD% in the UFC. They don't have it divisionally so I'll do some amateurish tableising of their stats: If I was clever like levi I'd do some coefficient of takedown to work out the average takedownness of each fighter and opponent based on their takedown differential but I'm not so this will have to do.

 

Machida has been taken down in 4 of his last 7 fights (Davis, Jones, Hendo, Rampage).

 

This is how the other top 10 MWs (UFC's own rankings) compare:

 

Weidman - taken down in 0 of last 7.

Silva - taken down in 4 of last 7 (Weidman x 2, Sonnen x 2)

Belfort - TD in 2 of last 7 (AJ, Jones)

Jacare - TD in 0 of last 7

Bisping - 2 of 7 (Sonnen, Mayhem)

Rockhold - 3 of 7 (Kennedy, Jacare, Jesse Taylor)

Munoz - 5 of 7 (Boetsch, Weidman, Leben, Dolloway, Simpson)

Carmont - 2 (Lawlor, Vemola)

Kennedy - 3 (Roger, Trevor Smith, Rockhold)

Phillipou - 4 (Carmont, Boetsch, Rivera, Catone)

 

So only Munoz has been taken down more often in their last 7 fights. I hate to rag on Machida's TDD but it's not among the best, unless the best includes the top 10% of the roster.

 

Davis taking him down was a shock, but its no disgrace with the others, especially as he does not come from a wrestling background.

 

Davis is the most decorated freestyle wrestler out of those listed. If we're discussing whether Machida belongs among the best TDDers in the UFC he can't earn extra credit because he's not a wrestler. Objectively, it only matters whether he gets taken down or not.

[ArteSuave]

It is merely a personal opinion based on Belfort’s impressive fights in 2013 where he dominated his opponents with his striking. Indeed it seemed to me that some of those opponents, notably Dan Henderson seemed lacking in their own confidence to impose their main strengths in the clinch or takedowns and impose this on Belfort.

 

That's fair enough, Vitor is a killer and he's looked better than ever this year.

 

Ok we can argue who has been the more impressive over the last year but I give the edge to Belfort. He has looked incredibly sharp over his last few fights and Weidman seems quite straightforward and flatfooted. Incidentally Belfort has faired well against grapplers only losing two by submission in over 34 fights, one against Jon Jones.

 

Vitor has never faced an elite submission grappler (Jones is obv. an elite all rounder but it's not the same thing). He's got some great training partners at the Blackzilians but I'd be much more confident of his sub defence if he'd survived on the ground with someone like Jacare, Maia or Roger.

 

Machida has great takedown defense and has beaten wrestlers and grapplers equally as skilled or experienced as Weidman.

 

I don't think he has. Who are you referring to?

 

In regard to Anderson Silva we haven't seen a motivated version of him for quite sometime now in the UFC so my point remains in regard to him being his own worst enemy. It's a pity one of the most technically gifted fighters the UFC has seen basically lacked focus and intent when he got into the ring!

 

IMV he's been motivated throughout his career but that's by the by. Let's suppose though that his showmanship was down to lack of motivation rather than an attempt to cement himself as a legend and wow the crowds.

 

It was a different story for the last fight. He came into it in the best physical shape I can remember seeing him in.

 

Fig 1

 

 

His hands stayed up too. Still got outfought and comprehensively beaten.

 

Again, Rockhold has greater wrestling experience than Weidman

 

Sorry this bit is out of order but it was too ludicrous not to finish on. What on earth makes you say someone who came 3rd in their county championships in high school (didn't place in State) and didn't wrestle in college has greater wrestling experience than someone who won their county AND state championships (plus was an All American) in high school and a two time All American in community college AND THEN two time Div-1 All American.

 

It's like saying Mourinho had a more decorated playing career than Guardiola.

Edited January 6, 2014 by ArteSuave

[ArteSuave]

Brace yourselves for some truly unbelievable news. Cruz is injured again.

Barao Faber 2 is the next title fight.

[Nigel]

He should never have been allowed to keep the belt anyway, being out so long.

 

Faber deserves another shot, he been really impressive recently..... shame he has to fight Barao really!

 

Should be a great fight but my moneys on the (proper) champ!

[Tegis]

Shame

[ArteSuave]

I think at this point Faber will provide a much sterner test than Cruz would have.

[Tegis]

probably, I just wanted to see the champ vs champ resolution at 135

[Nigel]

I think at this point Faber will provide a much sterner test than Cruz would have.

Yep, TBH I think Faber has improved so much recently that I think I think he would have beaten Cruz in his pomp.

[Nigel]

probably, I just wanted to see the champ vs champ resolution at 135

It would have been a mis-match anyway, if only because of the lack of fight time for Cruz.

 

He will need a few fights to warm up for a proper comeback.  It was probably for the best!

[Nigel]

 

I agree that he has been taken down at times but the fact still remains his statistics still show he is among the best. It doesnt really matter if the reason is that he has to fend off so many, was does matter is that he does.

 

I've had to go and look up the statistics (thankfully fightmetric has improved recently) and Machida doesn't make the top 10 for TDD% in the UFC. They don't have it divisionally so I'll do some amateurish tableising of their stats: If I was clever like levi I'd do some coefficient of takedown to work out the average takedownness of each fighter and opponent based on their takedown differential but I'm not so this will have to do.

 

 

You are right, the statistics I was looking at were from 2011, where he was 4th in the whole UFC.

 

Looking back at the actual stats its interesting that he had a TDD of around 80% yet this figure wouldnt get him into the top 10 now.  Just shows that its not that he has got any worse, just that the bar has been risen by the other fighters. 

 

Now this pose the question that if he was considered one of the best in the world back then (and nothing has changed stat wise) does it make him any worse of an exponent today, just that there happens to be a few extra specialists competing?

Edited January 7, 2014 by Nigel

[ArteSuave]

It doesn't make him any worse, it just means he no longer among the best statistically in that regard. I feel I should also point out fightmetrics top 10 requires 20 TD attempts on you before you're eligible so a large number of (who I would consider to be) the elite in that regard aren't featured.

Cormier, Teixera, Weidman, Barao and the like.

There are also an absurd amount of excellent wrestlers at WW who, while not possessing a better TDD%, I would consider better. The only reason they aren't higher in that table is that they've all fought each other and taken each other down.

Hendricks, GSP, Woodley, Kos, Story, Ellenberger, Pierce, Jason High. I'm sure there are others I can't remember too.

[Tegis]

Liverkicks, ouchie. Good work by Rockhold the other day

 

[hogso]

The Cuban wrestler guy whose name I can't remember had a good come from behind victory with a 3rd round TKO at that event as well.

[ArteSuave]

Romero. The wrestler who doesn't want to wrestle.

He's actually the older brother of Yoan Pablo Hernandez so I think it's safe to assume he's boxed since he was a kid but I wish he'd at least look aware that grappling is allowed.

I thought that was a horribly late stoppage too, nothing was said on the broadcast but there was no intelligent defence for 30+ seconds before the stoppage. The ref just gave him 10 final warnings.