Israel, Palestine and Iran (and Lebanon)

[Jareth]

I know it's no laughing matter but I keep reading the name and thinking either Toure or DingDong 

 

[Jareth]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

@Jareth the opinion of 1/3 of one party in a coalition government doesn’t represent the state, in fairness

I've done the maths - with one third of Likud supporting resettling Gaza, and the others in the coalition, it's 46 seats in favour, Vs the opposition of 52 - subject to the opposition all saying no, and only 1/3 of Likud saying yes. To say it's not what Israel wants is either uninformed, or deceptive. 

(And I assume those in Likud against will abstain)

Edited 10 hours ago by Jareth

[magnkarl]

43 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I've done the maths - with one third of Likud supporting resettling Gaza, and the others in the coalition, it's 46 seats in favour, Vs the opposition of 52 - subject to the opposition all saying no, and only 1/3 of Likud saying yes. To say it's not what Israel wants is either uninformed, or deceptive. 

(And I assume those in Likud against will abstain)

Except that Likud doesn’t have anywhere near that support if Parliament opened and elections were held again as per the will of the people who want Benny in jail. Right now there’s wartime cabinets, that’s about it.

It’s a straw-man argument. A bit like the one where everyone in Gaza is at fault for Hamas because they narrowly won an election in 2005.

Edited 10 hours ago by magnkarl

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

Except that Likud doesn’t have anywhere near that support if Parliament opened and elections were held again as per the will of the people who want Benny in jail. Right now there’s wartime cabinets, that’s about it.

It’s a straw-man argument.

TBF the will of the people is an increasingly scarce concept with authoritarian governments - Netanyahu has no intention of losing power so when will he just hand the choice back to his opponents? He will stay at war, I'm not sure he has any other strategy. That's not straw-man. So Israel will, whether the people want it or not, go for resettling Gaza. Hence why even the US are saying no to the idea - and they know. 

[Jareth]

Back to those precise IDF strikes 

Quote

After a year-long hunt, IDF soldiers encountered and killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar without knowing it was him

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/17/israel-idf-prime-target-yahya-sinwar-death-hamas

So the plan is to just keep bombing Gaza? If you don't know where your enemy is, if you don't know where your hostages are - then why on earth are you bombing the shit out of a strip of land?

[TreeVillan]

 

 

[magnkarl]

9 hours ago, Jareth said:

TBF the will of the people is an increasingly scarce concept with authoritarian governments - Netanyahu has no intention of losing power so when will he just hand the choice back to his opponents? He will stay at war, I'm not sure he has any other strategy. That's not straw-man. So Israel will, whether the people want it or not, go for resettling Gaza. Hence why even the US are saying no to the idea - and they know. 

Except that resettling Gaza requires Parliamentary support. I know it's tempting to paint everything in Israel as a fascist regieme, but they've actually got procedure that you need to go through before you can just go and settle in a foreign country. None of the current coalition will keep nearly as much of the vote as they did the last time.

Yes, Benny can likely push the war on for months, but he can't change the constitution based on wartime cabinet approval. The theory that you're spinning is conjecture at best.

If it quacks like a straw man.

Edited 16 minutes ago by magnkarl