Israel, Palestine and Iran (and Lebanon)

[omariqy]

5 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Israel wouldn't need to be involved at all, unless they wanted to invest in the place. With no blockade, and temporary UN governance, that sea is open. 

Just like you need Hamas removed you need the current terrorist Israeli government who are heavily influenced by these far right settler extremists to be removed too. Otherwise what you said is a fairy tale.

[Chindie]

Israel isn't going to allow a viable Palestinian state to exist. People can pretend that they will, but they won't, everyone knows this eventually ends with the complete erasure of Palestine. Which is wrong, and horrifically awful, but that's what'll eventually happen.

The really dark thing though, is a decent chunk of people, I suspect, even those who outwardly rail against the cruelty of what Israel is doing, in their truest, most private, unguarded moments, think that ultimately that will be a good thing. Which is wrong, but they think it.

[omariqy]

Just now, Chindie said:

Israel isn't going to allow a viable Palestinian state to exist. People can pretend that they will, but they won't, everyone knows this eventually ends with the complete erasure of Palestine. Which is wrong, and horrifically awful, but that's what'll eventually happen.

The really dark thing though, is a decent chunk of people, I suspect, even those who outwardly rail against the cruelty of what Israel is doing, in their truest, most private, unguarded moments, think that ultimately that will be a good thing. Which is wrong, but they think it.

I completely agree. 

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, omariqy said:

Just like you need Hamas removed you need the current terrorist Israeli government who are heavily influenced by these far right settler extremists to be removed too. Otherwise what you said is a fairy tale.

I'm on the same page. But the way I think that is achieved is by making Gaza a model of success. Nobody can go and forcibly remove the Israeli regime, but I think they have proven that they are not the right force to aid the Palestinian's future. Netanyahu's time will come soon, and there is a large population of Israel who do not want this right wing lot. But on Gaza, if it can rebuild, be open to the world, create a strong economy perhaps alongside the financial clout of a sponsor country or a few, then that is how we avoid any of this happening again in the future. For the war crimes committed, there is no true justice to be had, and that is a sad fact.

[Jareth]

8 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Israel isn't going to allow a viable Palestinian state to exist. People can pretend that they will, but they won't, everyone knows this eventually ends with the complete erasure of Palestine. Which is wrong, and horrifically awful, but that's what'll eventually happen.

The really dark thing though, is a decent chunk of people, I suspect, even those who outwardly rail against the cruelty of what Israel is doing, in their truest, most private, unguarded moments, think that ultimately that will be a good thing. Which is wrong, but they think it.

We've had to swallow the words of both UK main political parties on this, but they have both also explicitly stated that they believe in a two state solution. The US told Israel that Israel would not be responsible for security in Gaza once Hamas are done. Once Israel have squashed Hamas, and the US have told them they will not be allowed to stay and run the place - then what is the next likely outcome? I doubt the people of Gaza can be expected to do democracy again so soon, they'd only vote another Hamas in. Gaza needs a sponsor, that the people of Gaza would accept. I'm saying UN first, then a coalition of the many countries who have supported the Palestinians. Israel can consider the problem taken off their hands.

Edit - but yes - Israel will fight to stop that. Maybe our government and others can pick this battle.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Jareth

[Awol]

13 hours ago, DJBOB said:

With the IDF completing the encirclement of northern Gaza and the takeover of the Shifa hospital, it has probably completed the first objective of cutting off and isolating Gaza north of Wadi Gaza. Their goal is probably to limit any reinforcement of Hamas within this encirclement and continue their operation.

Hamas is intent to continue protracting this conflict for as long as possible, increasing international pressure on Israel and increasing the risk of a multi-front war as Iranian backed militias continue their attacks on US bases as well as Israel from the Golan Heights and West Bank front. I don't think Israel is in a great position here unless they have intelligence indicating Hamas leadership is somewhere to be found within this area or if it is their objective to re-occupy Gaza north of the Wadi Gaza. If they do so, the pressure will remain high and the urban insurgency will be ugly. From the beginning, it was a trap, and the IDF position will only continue to degrade.

I think of worry is that the IS of Iraq has continued their attacks on US positions in Iraq. So far, US response has been minimal and the Biden administration seems intent on not escalating the situation further. But all it would take is a casualty event on a US base to increase the political pressure from the right wing on Biden. Similar to what Hamas did with Israel, the IS are eager to draw US back into this losing war as well.

Once the IDF has destroyed the Hamas infrastructure north of the Wadi, I expect them to pivot and focus on repeating the operation in the south.

I don’t know how they’ll go about that, but the one way I can see that working logistically is to set up a control line on the wadi, and filter the population now in the south back through that into the north. 

That would require the IDF to push up the Egyptian border to the sea, then shepherd the population north over a period of weeks, conducting an extremely challenging combination of combat, humanitarian aid, and hostage rescue operations, simultaneously. 

Were the Israelis to cease operations and withdraw once the north is secure, they’d be leaving the majority of hostages in the custody of their Hamas kidnappers. That isn’t going to fly with the population of Israel and was one of the key objectives of invading Gaza in the first place. 

Bottom line, this is very unlikely to be over soon - unless Hamas release all the Israeli hostages. If they did that then international pressure on Tel Aviv would increase significantly to call it a day.

[Chindie]

26 minutes ago, Jareth said:

We've had to swallow the words of both UK main political parties on this, but they have both also explicitly stated that they believe in a two state solution. The US told Israel that Israel would not be responsible for security in Gaza once Hamas are done. Once Israel have squashed Hamas, and the US have told them they will not be allowed to stay and run the place - then what is the next likely outcome? I doubt the people of Gaza can be expected to do democracy again so soon, they'd only vote another Hamas in. Gaza needs a sponsor, that the people of Gaza would accept. I'm saying UN first, then a coalition of the many countries who have supported the Palestinians. Israel can consider the problem taken off their hands.

Edit - but yes - Israel will fight to stop that. Maybe our government and others can pick this battle.

They can say they support a two state solution all they want, they know as well as anyone else that it won't happen. We don't even recognise Palestine as a state iirc.

This won't be resolved, either way, by this conflict. But it'll be the next few steps towards the erasure. The soft work is already under way, carefully trying to to delegitimise Palestine as a thing, trying to imply Palestinian national identity support is actually support for terrorists, that Palestines flag is actually the flag of a terrorist group, that nobody can actually support Palestine without wanting to kill Israelis, etc etc. And on the ground you can be certain Gaza will not only be flatter and less populated (both by death and displacement) by the end of this round, it'll be smaller as well. And in a few years it'll happen again, because the spark for people to really hate the Israelis won't have gone away and the kids that are currently being lulled to sleep by the beat of airstrikes will grow up to see that their lives are shit at Israel's behest and they'll listen to the people telling them they need to go fight Israel for all the wrongs they've done to their people. And round and round we go. And in the West Bank Israelis will keep stealing land and keep blocking off water as they edge inch to the east, and nobody will actually stop them doing this, and they'll displace more people and kill more people in their efforts to protect their ill-gotten settlements, and slowly slowly slowly Palestine will go away. And nobody will actually stop it. The US might get cold feet once in a while and pull the leash on Israel early (this round will end when the US says to Israel 'enough' and signs off on whatever nonsense situation they agree to leave Gaza in - the good money was on a buffer zone last I read), but each time it'll be a little bit more, a little bit more, a little bit more... Until it's gone. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Chindie

[Awol]

Meanwhile (yesterday) the USAF and IAF are having a very close look at Lebanon. Happy to be corrected by @blandy (who knows much more about this stuff than me), but this looks like intelligence preparation of the battlefield. 

Incidentally, the Global Hawk (FORTE10) is normally on station in the Black Sea looking into Crimea - a very helpful asset for the Ukrainians. 

[magnkarl]

41 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I'm on the same page. But the way I think that is achieved is by making Gaza a model of success. Nobody can go and forcibly remove the Israeli regime, but I think they have proven that they are not the right force to aid the Palestinian's future. Netanyahu's time will come soon, and there is a large population of Israel who do not want this right wing lot. But on Gaza, if it can rebuild, be open to the world, create a strong economy perhaps alongside the financial clout of a sponsor country or a few, then that is how we avoid any of this happening again in the future. For the war crimes committed, there is no true justice to be had, and that is a sad fact.

I agree, but we can't look past Iran here either. They're essentially using Palestine as bait for an over-zealous right wing Israel, they'll do the same in Lebanon, and then in Syria, they'll keep wrecking their way to their aims by killing and displacing millions of people indirectly.

Part of this process has to be to try to reduce Iran's extreme violence in the region.

Edited November 16, 2023 by magnkarl

[Jareth]

9 minutes ago, Chindie said:

They can say they support a two state solution all they want, they know as well as anyone else that it won't happen. We don't even recognise Palestine as a state iirc.

This won't be resolved, either way, by this conflict. But it'll be the next few steps towards the erasure. The soft work is already under way, carefully trying to to delegitimise Palestine as a thing, trying to imply Palestinian national identity support is actually support for terrorists, that Palestines flag is actually the flag of a terrorist group, that nobody can actually support Palestine without wanting to kill Israelis, etc etc. And on the ground you can be certain Gaza will not only be flatter and less populated (both by death and displacement) by the end of this round, it'll be smaller as well. And in a few years it'll happen again, because the spark for people to really hate the Israelis won't have gone away and the kids that are currently being lulled to sleep by the beat of airstrikes will grow up to see that their lives are shit at Israel's behest and they'll listen to the people telling them they need to go fight Israel for all the wrongs they've done to their people. And round and round we go. And in the West Bank Israelis will keep stealing land and keep blocking off water as they edge inch to the east, and nobody will actually stop them doing this, and they'll displace more people and kill more people in their efforts to protect their ill-gotten settlements, and slowly slowly slowly Palestine will go away. And nobody will actually stop it. The US might get cold feet once in a while and pull the leash on Israel early (this round will end when the US says to Israel 'enough' and signs off on whatever nonsense situation they agree to leave Gaza in - the good money was on a buffer zone last I read), but each time it'll be a little bit more, a little bit more, a little bit more... Until it's gone. 

I think that is almost guaranteed to be the case, if Trump gets back in. Biden I'm not so sure, he holds Northern Ireland up as a model - and of course the UK will do what the US says. The people of Gaza will want blood in return for what has happened - keeping Israel out the reconstruction is the other difficult element - it won't be easy.

[omariqy]

 

[Awol]

19 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I think that is almost guaranteed to be the case, if Trump gets back in. Biden I'm not so sure, he holds Northern Ireland up as a model - and of course the UK will do what the US says. The people of Gaza will want blood in return for what has happened - keeping Israel out the reconstruction is the other difficult element - it won't be easy.

There’s no way Israel will entertain a two-state solution at this point, imo. What might work is an old school Mediterranean city state approach, sponsored financially by regional petro-monarchies. If Gaza was recognised as an independent entity in the international system it would have an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and a claim on some of the offshore oil and gas resources that will be developed in the future - see map. 

With help, it could become a prosperous independent entity, possibly also capturing more of the value chain from hydrocarbon production - refining, LNG train, etc. Add in DP World from Dubai to build and run a decent port, and there’s a viable future trajectory for Gaza.

That kind of future requires the population of Gaza to abandon political ambitions aimed at the destruction of Israel (Hamas’ raison d’etre) and now (unfortunately) even linking up physically with the West Bank. The offer of a two-state solution made and rejected during Bill Clinton’s time is gone and it’s not coming back.  

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Awol
Forgot to add map

[Mic09]

20 minutes ago, omariqy said:

 

I am no military expert, but if that is the key, and the tunnels under the hospital are the centre of Hamas operation, isn't it a fairly 'easy' fix?

Surely the Israeli army could send special forces to access the tunnels and eliminate the threat? You know, the way all special forces operations go?

Access it, clear it. The hospital is already under the Israeli control. What seems to be the issue? 

It is a high risk operation, and the tunnels must be filled with traps, but isn't that what special forces do? 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Mic09

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

There’s no way Israel will entertain a two-state solution at this point, imo. What might work is an old school Mediterranean city state approach, sponsored financially by regional petro-monarchies. If Gaza was recognised as an independent entity in the international system it would have an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and a claim on some of the offshore oil and gas resources that will be developed in the future - see map. 

With help, it could become a prosperous independent entity, possibly also capturing more of the value chain from hydrocarbon production - refining, LNG train, etc. Add in DP World from Dubai to build and run a decent port, and there’s a viable future trajectory for Gaza.

That kind of future requires the population of Gaza to abandon political ambitions aimed at the destruction of Israel (Hamas’ raison d’etre) and now (unfortunately) even linking up physically with the West Bank. The offer of a two-state solution made and rejected during Bill Clinton’s time is gone and it’s not coming back.  

 

I mean, that sounds like an excellent way forwards.

[omariqy]

 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

Meanwhile (yesterday) the USAF and IAF are having a very close look at Lebanon. Happy to be corrected by @blandy (who knows much more about this stuff than me), but this looks like intelligence preparation of the battlefield. 

Incidentally, the Global Hawk (FORTE10) is normally on station in the Black Sea looking into Crimea - a very helpful asset for the Ukrainians. 

Defo monitoring Hezbollah activities in Lebanon, beyond that I dunno about battlefield preparation or anything.

I believe that the global hawks are operating from Sigonella in Sicily, where there is a squadron of them. I don’t think it will necessarily mean Ukraine is deprived of intel. I’d imagine there is the ability to carry out both activities, unless there are unserviceability issues with the GCS or Air vehicles, or manpower issues.

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, blandy said:

Defo monitoring Hezbollah activities in Lebanon, beyond that I dunno about battlefield preparation or anything.

I believe that the global hawks are operating from Sigonella in Sicily, where there is a squadron of them. I don’t think it will necessarily mean Ukraine is deprived of intel. I’d imagine there is the ability to carry out both activities, unless there are unserviceability issues with the GCS or Air vehicles, or manpower issues.

Okay thanks, I didn’t know the same c/s could be used by different aircraft in a squadron. 

There’s more assets up and looking at Lebanon this morning, too.

[Awol]

21 minutes ago, omariqy said:

 

Do you reckon Mark Stone and his camera crew would bimble off around the Gaza Strip if the IDF said “go on then mate, on your head be it..”, and would the IDF would be blamed when they were killed or kidnapped?

I think Mark Stone knows, and so does Sky’s insurance company. 

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

Okay thanks, I didn’t know the same c/s could be used by different aircraft in a squadron. 

I believe that take off and landing are controlled locally (Sig. in this case) via a launch and recovery GCS and that mission sensing, stores release and such like are controlled separately back in that there big America. Obviously as long as the UAVs are not launched simultaneously then there should be no issues. I would also be fairly sure that there’s more than one GCS at Sig anyway. It’s a big base and I doubt it’s much different from when I went there a long time ago.

[blandy]

10 minutes ago, Awol said:

There’s more assets up and looking at Lebanon this morning, too

SigInt aircraft (like our sadly scrapped Nimrod R). Monitor Hezbollah comms and stuff, no doubt.