Chindie Posted February 16, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 16, 2012 Iranian nuke plants have been experiencing a number of explosions already... As, allegedly, have their staff. Incidentally the Israelis on their own will likely be able to strike any facility already - 'bunker busters' are not uniquely American, although they have looked into improving them, like a misguided venture into making nuclear bunker busters. If Israel wants (/is allowed), they will be able to send Iranian nuclear ambition back to the Stone Age. That may not be ths best option at the moment for them, but certainly the easiest, ignoring the repercussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 20, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 20, 2012 Debate in the Commons today on ruling out military action. The Iranians have shown a hand, cutting oil supplies to Uk and French companies (and possibly other Euro markets shortly) that is largely posturing (since the actual effect on us, for example, is slim - we don't really use Iranian oil anymore). Hague has spoken about the potential for Iran for spark either an arms race or a Middle Eastern Cold War if it's nuclear ambition continues. Heating up, sabres rattling... We live in interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Heating up, sabres rattling... I think this time the "will they, wont they" regarding Iran is different to that we've been seeing since 2005/6 and their covert (just about) involvement in Iraq. It may not end up with Iran and Israel going hammer and tongs directly but I'm pretty sure now that something is going to happen, there is just too much momentum building for it not to. Additionally the Iranians are stirring things up with the Shia rebels in Northern Yemen which is going down really well in the region. Finally the USN now have 3 Carrier Battle Groups in the region (Abe Lincoln, Stennis and Carl Vinson) which is a pretty solid statement of intent, imo. It will just take a spark for all hell to break loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted February 21, 2012 Moderator Share Posted February 21, 2012 It sounds like it is a case of when rather than if it all kicks off and it would appear that the US and Israel are already preparing for whatever comes. I expect the tit for tat stuff with the assassinations will continue a while longer before something comes along to really kick it all off. I'm sure the Israeli's and the US are already discussing what Uncle Sam has got that would take care of that facility under the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ads Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ninja Moles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 That sounds like a great t.v show. Get on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 I'm sure the Israeli's and the US are already discussing what Uncle Sam has got that would take care of that facility under the mountain. Thermobaric weapons, easy. Make the air pop with such force that anything in it's way goes bye bye. They work particularly effectively in tight enclosed spaces, which is why they got used a bit in Afghanistan - you fire the thing into a cave and everything inside dies. Nasty way to die too. If it works perfectly, your lungs pop due to the enormous pressure wave hitting your body. If it doesn't, the air around you bursts into flames and you end up breathing fire at absurd temperatures. And then the initial pressure wave is reflected, followed by an enormous pressure drop that works much in the same way the first intial wave did, just backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 How popular is the Iranian regime internally? I would have thought that covert political subversion leading to regime change and a client government (that hands out McDs, Cokes and Nike trainers to everybody) would be a cheaper (and safer) option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eames Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I'm sure the Israeli's and the US are already discussing what Uncle Sam has got that would take care of that facility under the mountain. Thermobaric weapons, easy. Make the air pop with such force that anything in it's way goes bye bye. They work particularly effectively in tight enclosed spaces, which is why they got used a bit in Afghanistan - you fire the thing into a cave and everything inside dies. Nasty way to die too. If it works perfectly, your lungs pop due to the enormous pressure wave hitting your body. If it doesn't, the air around you bursts into flames and you end up breathing fire at absurd temperatures. And then the initial pressure wave is reflected, followed by an enormous pressure drop that works much in the same way the first intial wave did, just backwards. They sound amazing fun. Can you get small scale ones.... I've got a couple of rabbit warrens in my garden I'd love to clear out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 I believe that one of the problems is that it isn't just one facility, there are several, ALL of which would have to be taken out. This is starting to look like Europe in the 1930s. Appeasement? Or war? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think the Iranians are rather too well up on their country's recent history to fall for another Pahlavi. It's quite a cosmopolitan state, even with the mad legal stuff and it's utterly bizarre 'quasi-democracy', so I suspect putting in a puppet is more difficult, and ultimately given the crisis that's beginning to unfold with increasing pace, too slow (were it to work at all) to bring about our ends. I don't think it's so much a case of Armadinnerjacket (or his boss) being popular with his people - the youth of Iran doesn't appear to particularly likes it's government... but they also don't particularly like the idea of being beholden to the West either. Arguably, nor should they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 I believe that one of the problems is that it isn't just one facility, there are several, ALL of which would have to be taken out. This is starting to look like Europe in the 1930s. Appeasement? Or war? Co-ordinating a series of strikes isn't that difficult. The big problem is knowing if you have all of them. If you haven't, an they've gotten the bomb already, you've just crossed the Rubicon and have a pissed off nuclear armed nation with it's finger on the button. And even if you do, you've just nixed any chance of there ever being a peaceful nation there. You've made one problem go away... but just made another. It's all this that makes this interesting if conflict is the thing you choose. You need to act quickly (relatively - it's not like Iran will have a true nuke tomorrow), but you also need to act perfectly and with all the information being utterly correct, and you need to be aware that you're only kicking the can down the road - Iran will remain a problem until a total sea change in it's government occurs. And that will only happen successfully from within. You cannot force a government on an unwilling people. It's unlikely the Iranian people would choose to follow the lead we would like them to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 There were protests aplenty a while back, but they tend to fizzle out because there is a) a rather large army and not enough pressure from abroad. So they tend to fizzle out and prominent opponents disappear without a trace. A potential regime change would be incredibly violent. The problem with Iran is that the chaps in charge are fanatics. A few commentators have come out and said Iran won't seek weapons because they will spark an arms race, cold war etc, but that is presuming that these chaps are rational. They aren't. One way or another, the solution to the Iran situation will be a very messy and violent one, either through the back door thanks to Mossad or through the front via a US backed Israeli army. I can't see the powers that be in the region allowing it to go that far though, or else it will escalate very, very quickly. And lets not forget Pakistan, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 What's the Russian stance on Iran? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 21, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21, 2012 What's the Russian stance on Iran? They get on pretty well. The Russians like Iran being opposed to the West as the Middle East has increasingly turned (or been turned) to Western affiliations, either by force or trade. The Midde East now has considerable numbers of countries tthat are influenced by the US. They've also found that Iran is a willing customer as the West has ostracised it. Iran's military has lots of Russian kit in it these days, although IIRC that took a hit a few years back on the back of wider sanctions from the UN. Russia isn't exactly unhappy to have Iran not like the US, put it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 linky link good article on this issue, and the website is worth bookmarking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ads Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 How popular is the Iranian regime internally? I would have thought that covert political subversion leading to regime change and a client government (that hands out McDs, Cokes and Nike trainers to everybody) would be a cheaper (and safer) option. As far as I am aware, there is a significant split between the rural and elderly urban populace and the urban youth. The later are quite brazenly pro-Western and are captivated by Americana culture. That’s part of the reason why I think the Iranian leadership are carrying on as they are. They want to be smacked, not just by the Israeli’s, but by the US, as eventually, the later group will grow larger than the other through life’s natural course. The USN unleashing two or three CBG’s and all the might that entails may put dents in the anti-regime sentiment or at least split it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 linky link good article on this issue, and the website is worth bookmarking. Biggest pile of propaganda bullshit I've read in a long while. No offence to poster intended :winkold: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 American innit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 American innit. Erm, Iranian innit? Though in fairness there is an equally propagandised piece underneath it entitled "Time to bomb Iran". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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