Chindie Posted May 17, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted May 17, 2017 The shy Tories won't make a real difference. They're romping home without them. The lead is a dominating one and has been forever, the shy Tories will just make it look worse. Labour doing well on social media means nothing other than they've managed to preach to the choir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 3 hours ago, Awol said: Guido Fawkes reporting a study by some academic who has looked at election prospects for parliamentary seats in East Anglia. He claims Clive Lewis has a 74% chance of losing Norwich South, significant for those in Labour planning for a post-election & post-Corbyn PLP - assuming he actually steps down.. I'd be surprised, it seems the biggest danger to Labour is the UKIP vote going direct to the Tories, which would still leave them short of what Lewis won with in 2015, and it was a remain constituency. It would throw a spanner in the works though and it'd be interesting as to whether Lewis mentions Corbyn in his campaigning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Ooosh and policies for the elderly to pay for their own care from their estate. May might be underestimating her lead here, Labour are promising triple lock on pensions and more funding for the NHS. Done take the grey vote for granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 A lot of people putting a lot of faith in the polls. All the ones I've seen do a percentage split of around 1500-2000 people in a certain area, mostly before the Labour manifesto was even leaked. If you disregard the polls, what tells you the Tories have this in the bag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted May 17, 2017 Moderator Share Posted May 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, Wainy316 said: Labour support is definitely winning the Internet so far but millions of 'Shy Tories' are going to appear and bum us into net week on June 8th aren't they. It did ahead of the last GE as well. It's fairly meaningless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, darrenm said: A lot of people putting a lot of faith in the polls. All the ones I've seen do a percentage split of around 1500-2000 people in a certain area, mostly before the Labour manifesto was even leaked. If you disregard the polls, what tells you the Tories have this in the bag? I find the UKpollingreport website goes into the detail behind all the different polls and you can't really argue with double digit leads. I know the polling companies have had a wobble recently but if they get this wrong after giving the Tories at least 15 point leads for months then they might as well shut up shop. There's also the fundamental point that this for a lot of people is going to be a Brexit election and I think the vast majority of the 52% will vote for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said: Ooosh and policies for the elderly to pay for their own care from their estate. May might be underestimating her lead here, Labour are promising triple lock on pensions and more funding for the NHS. Done take the grey vote for granted. 15 minutes ago, darrenm said: A lot of people putting a lot of faith in the polls. All the ones I've seen do a percentage split of around 1500-2000 people in a certain area, mostly before the Labour manifesto was even leaked. If you disregard the polls, what tells you the Tories have this in the bag? Manifestos are almost totally irrelevant. Only a tiny handful of political obsessives know what is in them in any sort of detail, and nearly all of those people are 'locked in' in terms of who they will vote for anyway. 10 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: It did ahead of the last GE as well. It's fairly meaningless. I'd go further than that - seems to me like Twitter is a negative indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Xann Posted May 17, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted May 17, 2017 Boris got dressed up in a turban and told a room full of Sikhs he'd like tax breaks on importing booze into India. He's still got it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 28 minutes ago, Chindie said: The shy Tories won't make a real difference. They're romping home without them. The lead is a dominating one and has been forever, the shy Tories will just make it look worse. Labour doing well on social media means nothing other than they've managed to preach to the choir. I'd say it extends beyond the choir. Look at the comments on Tory threads, The Sun & The Mail, I'd say there's a far few converted and awakened. I'm not for one minute saying it's going to be anywhere near enough but maybe it's not going to be the landslide predicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: I find the UKpollingreport website goes into the detail behind all the different polls and you can't really argue with double digit leads. I know the polling companies have had a wobble recently but if they get this wrong after giving the Tories at least 15 point leads for months then they might as well shut up shop. There's also the fundamental point that this for a lot of people is going to be a Brexit election and I think the vast majority of the 52% will vote for them. I didn't follow the last election as closely so I didn't see what the polls said in the lead up. Were they accurate? To me it's a flawed method. Exit polls are going to be far more accurate. I know there are lots of secret scumbags, er, sorry shy Tories but there will have to be a lot to get the result anything like the polls are predicting. My reasons for thinking this: Social media is basically almost fully Labour in the comments sections and tweet replies to anything popular. Most NHS workers will be voting Labour Most workers in unions Most students and young people, and there has been a surge in younger voter registrations since the GE being called Now a lot of the police after Amber Rudd today There's a definite feel of a movement that wasn't there before. But it may be something I ate. But if polls are to be believed, the latest ones are showing Labour climbing from 25% to 33% in 2 weeks while Tories are flatlining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, darrenm said: I didn't follow the last election as closely so I didn't see what the polls said in the lead up. Were they accurate? Tory majority was a shock. You'd have got odds of about 1/5 on a hung parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 When the polls have been wrong, they've underestimated the Conservative votes. Darren, it's going to be at least a 100 seat majority, time to start facing facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 Just now, Risso said: When the polls have been wrong, they've underestimated the Conservative votes. Darren, it's going to be at least a 100 seat majority, time to start facing facts. Facts?? Uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Risso said: ...time to start facing facts. Hope not, just for the comedy value on here come 9th of June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 17 minutes ago, darrenm said: Tories are flatlining I think they (and any other party) would be very happy to be 'flatlining' at around 47%. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 The 'secret scumbags' would be added on top of the 48% or so, judging by previous elections. By definition, they're not being secret or shy by saying they intend to vote that way. Also, I wish people wouldn't bring social media into it, it really is a small percentage of the electorate and likely to be skewed by your own viewpoint, especially if you are left-leaning. That said, it's not known how any amendments by the polling companies to try and fix their methods have affected things but even so, no margin of error could surely result in a 15% difference being wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, darrenm said: Facts?? Uh? You know that "to face facts" is an idiom that means to accept or deal with a situation considered by the person to be unpleasant, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowychap said: I think they (and any other party) would be very happy to be 'flatlining' at around 47%. Yep, but the point is, they aren't gaining and are even slightly falling (if polls are to be believed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Risso said: You know that "to face facts" is an idiom that means to accept or deal with a situation considered by the person to be unpleasant, right? Yes but the idiom is only valid when there are facts to face. Here we have no result yet as it hasn't yet happened. If the Tories win in a landslide and I was then disputing it, the idiom would then be valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted May 17, 2017 Share Posted May 17, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, darrenm said: Yep, but the point is, they aren't gaining and are even slightly falling (if polls are to be believed) They don't need to do any more gaining. Edited May 17, 2017 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts