Popular Post Chindie Posted June 11, 2017 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted June 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, PaulC said: people are making too much out of this Conservative DUP real. its only going to apply to issues like Security and the economy and its not going to hurt the good Friday agreement. It has to effect the GFA. Britain is meant to be neutral in N.Irish affairs. We now have effectively have Northern Irish affairs in government. And not even the 'milder' bits. We've got the words removed wagging the dog. That can't be neutral. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Lets see how it pans out first. I just think it wont be as big a problem as people make out. If wrong I will come on and say sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, Xela said: Become like Jez's Labour? I don't think i said that. Not big changes. Perhaps just not attack the pensioners and that is all it may take to earn more votes! Sadly I think this is right. they'll commit to keeping the triple lock, and that's all it'll take to widen the gap again. It's a shame really, I think refusing to protect the triple lock is one of the few things May has done that's right, it's scandalous that pensioners get a minimum of a 2.5% payrise each year while younger generations are getting **** over having to pay for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 39 minutes ago, blandy said: I'm not a Labour "supporter". But even if I was, the information available seems to indicate an increase in Labour support over the period of the election campaign. Yes polling errors, yes other factors such as media bias understating Labour's support maybe....but still, from getting a bit of a shoeing in the local elections, during the period of the campaign to the end result of the national election, their support looks to have gone up. The YouGov graph should offer some insights, in that it would be enlightening to try and link the steps in the data points with events. Was it the announcement of May's policies plus a lag while the opposition's criticisms did their damage, or as @HanoiVillan suggested, did YouGov tweak their model? According to Electoral Calculus the error in the polls was even greater (6%) last time around, when they exaggerated Labour's popularity. The media blamed Miliband and that became the orthodoxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Sadly I think this is right. they'll commit to keeping the triple lock, and that's all it'll take to widen the gap again. It's a shame really, I think refusing to protect the triple lock is one of the few things May has done that's right, it's scandalous that pensioners get a minimum of a 2.5% payrise each year while younger generations are getting **** over having to pay for it. You are right. The next Tory leader will commit to keeping the triple lock and that will persuade a number of the grey vote who have voted against May this time to go back to voting blue. That is where Labour were smart this time... commit to the triple lock to get the older vote and abolish tuition fees to get the younger vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 11, 2017 Moderator Share Posted June 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said: did YouGov tweak their model? Yes, they did, as a i posted earlier - they ran two different models Quote In this election we have been using two different measuring tools, traditional polling and big data modelling using MRP. We have done this in a commitment to advancing the science of survey research. Our final poll of the campaign shows the Conservatives with a 7 point lead over Labour, which would give them a comfortable majority. Our model has a smaller lead of just 4 points..... ...Elections are becoming more difficult to assess and so, as well as running traditional polls, we are looking at new ways to meet the challenge. We know we run a risk publishing so much data in the heat of a campaign but as data scientists we are committed to innovating, to increase both accuracy and specificity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 (edited) It's harder to call now than before. Labour were perhaps overstretched, and the Tories could indeed claw some ground back? On the other hand look at the Tories, and who they've got in the wings looking to step up? I see BoJo the blowjob loving clown just counted himself out. That leaves the mutants and the psychopaths. Worcester Woman may find the Libs or perhaps (please!) the Greens more palatable? Edited June 11, 2017 by Xann Punctuation. It was missing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 11, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 11, 2017 (edited) Rumours Gove might get Deputy PM. Ha. Hahaha. Edited June 11, 2017 by Chindie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted June 11, 2017 Moderator Share Posted June 11, 2017 Osbourne didn't waste much time sticking the knife in May, nothing like getting your own back. Pretty strong stuff from him but I think he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 The only one who seems sensible in the conservatives at the moment is Ruth Davidson - I'm not all that versed on the Scottish MSP system - can she become Tory leader if she's not an MP? I presume it leaves her out of the PM job but she is grounded enough to shout some sense into the floppy conservatives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 11, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 11, 2017 Tories require their leader to be a sitting MP iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted June 11, 2017 Moderator Share Posted June 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, magnkarl said: The only one who seems sensible in the conservatives at the moment is Ruth Davidson - I'm not all that versed on the Scottish MSP system - can she become Tory leader if she's not an MP? I presume it leaves her out of the PM job but she is grounded enough to shout some sense into the floppy conservatives. No not according to tory party rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 New poll has Labour 6 pts ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post peterms Posted June 11, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted June 11, 2017 1 hour ago, PaulC said: Lets see how it pans out first. I just think it wont be as big a problem as people make out. If wrong I will come on and say sorry. Well, I've weighed up the options, and on balance I think I'd rather have peace in NI than your apology. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicho Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 1 hour ago, PaulC said: Lets see how it pans out first. I just think it wont be as big a problem as people make out. If wrong I will come on and say sorry. I dont know your position on Brexit or vote in the general election but everyone that voted leave and the tories seems to have the same answer and line of thinking. Oh shit looks like weve **** up, to the people telling us so lets just see how it goes so we dont have to acknowledge the choice and decision weve made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Just now, Nicho said: I dont know your position on Brexit or vote in the general election but everyone that voted leave and the tories seems to have the same answer and line of thinking. Oh shit looks like weve **** up, to the people telling us so lets just see how it goes so we dont have to acknowledge the choice and decision weve made. remain and Labour despite misgivings on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chrisp65 Posted June 11, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted June 11, 2017 37 minutes ago, magnkarl said: The only one who seems sensible in the conservatives at the moment is Ruth Davidson - I'm not all that versed on the Scottish MSP system - can she become Tory leader if she's not an MP? I presume it leaves her out of the PM job but she is grounded enough to shout some sense into the floppy conservatives. It would certainly be interesting to see how a new tory leader that's in a same sex partnership with a catholic would get on with the DUP overlords. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 37 minutes ago, peterms said: Well, I've weighed up the options, and on balance I think I'd rather have peace in NI than your apology. I think May will be forced out before peace in NI is compromised and we might have another election before the end of the year but hope it doesn't come to the second bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 (edited) 33 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: It would certainly be interesting to see how a new tory leader that's in a same sex partnership with a catholic would get on with the DUP overlords. It would be interesting enough to see how a new tory leader in a same-sex partnership gets on leading a party where over half of the MPs as of a few years ago voted against same sex marriage. Edited June 11, 2017 by Davkaus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted June 11, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted June 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Davkaus said: It would be interesting enough to see how a new tory leader gets on leading a party where over half of the MPs as of a few years ago voted against same sex marriage. Indeed. And both Labour and Tories have 19 gay MPs each (mine is one of them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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