General Election 2017

[Xann]

[peterms]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

Apparently, Downing Street announced the deal with the DUP by mistake. 

They're an absolute shambles. 

To give them credit, they are at least consistent.  Consistently, unremittingly, unswervingly a shambles.

[MakemineVanilla]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

I think saying Corbyn hasn't changed at all does him discredit. I accept that people have come to see him more favourably, but not the rest of what you say. He's changed his attire, he's changed his approach to the media, he's presented a manifesto which in parts was kinder to the rich than was the tories, which retains trident and so on. He's compromised and accepted that he has to stand behind what the Labour Party decides is policy, rather than opposing it and rebelling if he doesn't like it. He's learnt to deal with interviewers much better. He's grown into leadership, basically.

now you could say "well he doesn't really believe what's in the manifesto is right, or even possible" and I'd agree with you, but if you did say that, I'd point out that would be a difference, a change from previously, where he's had no problem campaigning against official policy and manifesto commitments.

He's done well by being himself, people love authenticity and as the cynical old saying goes, once you can fake that you've got it sorted. He's become a much more mainstream politician by being sometimes tactically aware and avoiding, deflecting, etc.

this post probably comes across as mean, or grudging or whatever, given the current climate of joy that he's done well and the tories are such a mess,  but we'll see.

I have little doubt that the historical narrative will be about how Corbyn got better during the campaign and how May got worse but it seems to me that the dramatic turnaround has been manufactured by the media, by using the polls which were predicting an 82 seat majority for the Tories, to claim that the Tories were miles ahead and lost it, rather than using the only accurate poll, which was YouGove, which put the Tories only marginally ahead on May 30th and was at odds with the rest of the polls.

The polls proved to be hugely inaccurate in the final analysis and it seems logical to assume they were wrong from the start.

I can only conclude that the Tories were never as popular as was assumed and Labour were as popular at the beginning as they proved at the end.

In other words all the theories about campaigning style and presentation are probably false and are just grist for media analysis based on false premises. 

[Xann]

Obviously not doing such a terrible job.

[bobzy]

8 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

In other words all the theories about campaigning style and presentation are probably false and are just grist for media analysis based on false premises. 

Irrespective of where people have voted, there have been a LOT of voters stating that they warmed to Corbyn during the campaign.

Looking at poll statistics/votes cast doesn't reflect view changes.  For some people it may have been enough to persuade them to vote Labour, for others maybe not enough.

[magnkarl]

I'm not sure who's making more shambles of it right now. Theresa's office or the other Conservative MP's that are openly revolting against her (very labour 2016-eque). No matter how many people on twitter say "labour will present their queen's speech" doesn't make it true. The queen's speech is presented by the Queen on behalf of the government - not Momentum and the opposition. It's staggering how many people are so clueless about how our process works when something like that can trend on twitter. Corbyn needs to gather his trolls again and teach them how our democracy functions.

No matter what happens now we'll have a hung parliament, though at the moment the conservatives have the strongest starting place if the DUP back them - however that remains to be seen. At least politics are interesting again.

[MakemineVanilla]

7 minutes ago, Xann said:

Obviously not doing such a terrible job.

It offers proof that our system is not as bad as is often assumed because under the German system a party needs at least 5% of the national vote to get seats in parliament.

The Greens could use their votes tactically but still retain their seat and guarantee they can continue to make an important contribution to the political conversation. 

[magnkarl]

In the meantime Corbyn has been practicing his high fives after the pat on the tit.

[chrisp65]

for those that missed it, a summary of Michael Fallon on the Marr show earlier

 

 

 

(from twitter)

 

[HanoiVillan]

33 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

I have little doubt that the historical narrative will be about how Corbyn got better during the campaign and how May got worse but it seems to me that the dramatic turnaround has been manufactured by the media, by using the polls which were predicting an 82 seat majority for the Tories, to claim that the Tories were miles ahead and lost it, rather than using the only accurate poll, which was YouGove, which put the Tories only marginally ahead on May 30th and was at odds with the rest of the polls.

The polls proved to be hugely inaccurate in the final analysis and it seems logical to assume they were wrong from the start.

I can only conclude that the Tories were never as popular as was assumed and Labour were as popular at the beginning as they proved at the end.

In other words all the theories about campaigning style and presentation are probably false and are just grist for media analysis based on false premises. 

Your conclusion doesn't seem to follow from your premise? Not least since the campaign was nearly over by May 30th, not just beginning. YouGov (I did smile at YouGove, typo or not!) were also showing double-digit Tory leads at the beginning of the campaign. 

[chrisp65]

Do we know yet what the official DUP/tory line will be on whether dinosaurs existed?

Can't see how they'll ever get around to agreeing on the detail of border control or grammar schools or dementia tax when they disagree on dinosaurs.

 

 

[sexbelowsound]

Did anything come of this potential alliance contravening the Good Friday agreement?

[snowychap]

53 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

I have little doubt that the historical narrative will be about how Corbyn got better during the campaign and how May got worse but it seems to me that the dramatic turnaround has been manufactured by the media, by using the polls which were predicting an 82 seat majority for the Tories, to claim that the Tories were miles ahead and lost it, rather than using the only accurate poll, which was YouGove, which put the Tories only marginally ahead on May 30th and was at odds with the rest of the polls.

The polls proved to be hugely inaccurate in the final analysis and it seems logical to assume they were wrong from the start.

I can only conclude that the Tories were never as popular as was assumed and Labour were as popular at the beginning as they proved at the end.

In other words all the theories about campaigning style and presentation are probably false and are just grist for media analysis based on false premises. 

Ha ha ha. Brilliant.

[MakemineVanilla]

18 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Your conclusion doesn't seem to follow from your premise? Not least since the campaign was nearly over by May 30th, not just beginning. YouGov (I did smile at YouGove, typo or not!) were also showing double-digit Tory leads at the beginning of the campaign. 

Thanks for your reasoned critique (I wish I had done my typo on purpose)

Here's YouGov's own graph of how the polls compare measuring the Tory lead and it is notable that they had two horses in the race.

It would be interesting to see what happened in the period leading up to 22nd May (YouGov MRP) when the plunge happened.

[Xann]

7 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

It offers proof that our system is not as bad as is often assumed...

I'm more enthused by the Greens having a successful and clearly popular administration, as an example and model

 

 

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

Thanks for your reasoned critique (I wish I had done my typo on purpose)

Here's YouGov's own graph of how the polls compare measuring the Tory lead and it is notable that they had two horses in the race.

It would be interesting to see what happened in the period leading up to 22nd May (YouGov MRP) when the plunge happened.

Nice graph! I may well be wrong, but I had picked up the impression from somewhere that YouGov tinkered with the MRP model throughout the campaign, so the different polls conducted under it may have had different assumptions and not be completely comparable. 

[snowychap]

Osborne wasn't on TV this much (i.e. as much as he has been since Thursday night) when he was chancellor. He certainly never looked this happy.

Edited June 11, 2017 by snowychap

[MakemineVanilla]

16 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Nice graph! I may well be wrong, but I had picked up the impression from somewhere that YouGov tinkered with the MRP model throughout the campaign, so the different polls conducted under it may have had different assumptions and not be completely comparable. 

I did wonder.

The big event which happened leading up to the data point on May 23rd was the Manchester atrocity.

I wonder if the wave of sentiment changed people's mindset?

And it also halted the campaign.

Edited June 11, 2017 by MakemineVanilla

[snowychap]

13 hours ago, darrenm said:

So perhaps without any kind of cross party support, they'll amend the Queen's speech

This is what The Grauniad are reporting he said earlier:

Quote

We are going to put down a substantial amendment to the Queen’s speech which will be the main points of our manifesto so we will invite the House to consider all the issues we’ve put forward...

I'm not sure how that's going to look, tbh.

I'll have to have a proper read of that briefing doc to see if it's a matter of course that the Speaker selects the Opposition amendment for debate, too.

Separately, I think Corbyn needs to expound on this:

Quote

Corbyn said the great repeal bill, designed to transfer EU law into British law to enable changes to regulations, “has now become history” and said Labour would offer something different.

 

Edited June 11, 2017 by snowychap

[MakemineVanilla]

Electoral Calculus: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Gives the excuse that, "The polling data also seems to have confused the attempts to quantify the effect of the EU referendum. The data suggested that Remain voters would stick with their 2015 party, but the pattern of seat results suggest that seats in Remain areas saw significant defections away from the Conservatives."

 

Edited June 11, 2017 by MakemineVanilla