Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

What’s in this for NK? Are they getting some cheap oil / gas in return for providing a few days worth of cannon fodder?

[fruitvilla]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

What’s in this for NK? Are they getting some cheap oil / gas in return for providing a few days worth of cannon fodder?

Propaganda.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

3 hours ago, Genie said:

What’s in this for NK? Are they getting some cheap oil / gas in return for providing a few days worth of cannon fodder?

I would guess they are getting some expertise in developing long range missiles.  

[magnkarl]

These North Koreans have never experienced HIMARS, Bradleys, FPVs, CV90s, artillery or any Western equipment.

They're in for some BADABADABOOM as Madyar would say.

If they're stationed along the border I suspect many will run, as 8 of the 40 stationed in Belgorod already did.

Edited Thursday at 05:32 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[magnkarl]

On 23/10/2024 at 10:29, bickster said:

Yes but that is still in the realm of technical advice as per RAF assisting Saudi vs Yemen (or even suspectedly in Ukraine)

I wouldn't really call it the same. It would be the same if we sent RAF staff into occupied territories in Yemen.

North Koreans are in occupied parts of Ukraine, a massive international legal difference..

[magnkarl]

2 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Hopefully like the Kyivan Rus when Moscow was a dirt road and Kyiv controlled much of Western Russia.

[magnkarl]

8 hours ago, Genie said:

What’s in this for NK? Are they getting some cheap oil / gas in return for providing a few days worth of cannon fodder?

Nuclear technology and food.

[tonyh29]

9 hours ago, Genie said:

What’s in this for NK? Are they getting some cheap oil / gas in return for providing a few days worth of cannon fodder?

There has been a  deterioration of late in their relationship with Beijing , so the likely answer would be oil , food and machinery 

but equally as important  is that defections to the South from some of the DPRK elite families are on the increase due to dissatisfaction with Kim Jong Un over his handling of state affairs , its possibly KJU needs a win in order to (re)strengthen his grip on power.

[Xann]

I'm not sure this war happens in the present without Navalny's revelations about the lifestyle of the wannabe Tsar? I suspect this is a war to restore an image.

Had things rumbled on without a Ukraine invasion, I think the ignorant and poor critical thinkers in the general population of the West would have been further and less obviously manipulated by the leaders of Russia, China, Iran plus some very unsavoury types in our own countries.

There's a multi faceted shitstorm coming regardless and it's not going to be pretty, but we've had a heads up here.

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, Xann said:

I'm not sure this war happens in the present without Navalny's revelations about the lifestyle of the wannabe Tsar? I suspect this is a war to restore an image.

Had things rumbled on without a Ukraine invasion, I think the ignorant and poor critical thinkers in the general population of the West would have been further and less obviously manipulated by the leaders of Russia, China, Iran plus some very unsavoury types in our own countries.

There's a multi faceted shitstorm coming regardless and it's not going to be pretty, but we've had a heads up here.

Yep, I’d agree with that.

Right now, it looks like ‘the West’ is dithering over a land war in Europe. If we can’t quite be arsed to be in or out on that front. How likely are we to put up serious resistance elsewhere.

There’s a scenario brewing here where Trump wins and there is a time gap between Trump doing Trump things and the rest of European NATO gearing up to pull their weight. We’ve had years to prepare, the Germans said yesterday, we had a wake up call in 2014, but we pressed snooze.

Even if we do wake up in the next few months, one of those BRICS countries that had a photo op with Putin yesterday just switched off our two steel plants and we can’t manufacture our own gun barrels. But don’t worry, we can but them off another of those BRICS countries that had a photo op with Putin yesterday. 

As long as nobody stops the oil from BRICS newbie Iran, we should be fine in the short term.

[Anthony]

6 hours ago, Genie said:

What’s in this for NK? Are they getting some cheap oil / gas in return for providing a few days worth of cannon fodder?

For NK, very little. For Kim, money, a reliable trading partner (for a given definition of reliable), all kinds of expertise, from rocket know how, to IT, to sanctions busting, a new propaganda angle at home to keep the population in line, economies of scale for general arseholery.

[magnkarl]

19 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Yep, I’d agree with that.

Right now, it looks like ‘the West’ is dithering over a land war in Europe. If we can’t quite be arsed to be in or out on that front. How likely are we to put up serious resistance elsewhere.

There’s a scenario brewing here where Trump wins and there is a time gap between Trump doing Trump things and the rest of European NATO gearing up to pull their weight. We’ve had years to prepare, the Germans said yesterday, we had a wake up call in 2014, but we pressed snooze.

Even if we do wake up in the next few months, one of those BRICS countries that had a photo op with Putin yesterday just switched off our two steel plants and we can’t manufacture our own gun barrels. But don’t worry, we can but them off another of those BRICS countries that had a photo op with Putin yesterday. 

As long as nobody stops the oil from BRICS newbie Iran, we should be fine in the short term.

I mean, it's a dual faceted issue for Europe.

On the one hand we've got the Nordics, Poland, Dutch, Romanians, Bulgarians and Czech who are arming themselves to the teeth, and then there's the 'old greats' who seem to be stuttering along at a pace that angers their Eastern and Northern neighbours.

I read an article yesterday about the now united Nordic air force (that's Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway) having more modern fighter jets (F-35s and JAS39s) than Germany, ourselves and France. That's a population pool of 20-something million with more modern fighter jets than countries with 60+ million. That's after Denmark and Norway have donated all their F-16s to Ukraine.

We're not getting this right, it feels like 1939, just that this time Poland and the Nordics aren't messing around. The Nordics will likely align all their military branches and come up with a bigger navy and army than most European NATO members too because they seem a bit tired of our dithering. That's a million+ trained men, the largest arsenal of tubed artillery in Europe and a population that have been well trained for decades. 

We need to sort our stuff out.

Edited Friday at 07:46 by magnkarl

[chrisp65]

22 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I mean, it's a dual faceted issue for Europe.

On the one hand we've got the Nordics, Poland, Dutch, Romanians, Bulgarians and Czech who are arming themselves to the teeth, and then there's the 'old greats' who seem to be stuttering along at a pace that angers their Eastern and Northern neighbours.

I read an article yesterday about the now united Nordic air force (that's Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway) having more modern fighter jets (F-35s and JAS39s) than Germany, ourselves and France. That's a population pool of 20-something million with more modern fighter jets than countries with 60+ million. That's after Denmark and Norway have donated all their F-16s to Ukraine.

We're not getting this right, it feels like 1939, just that this time Poland and the Nordics aren't messing around. The Nordics will likely align all their military branches and come up with a bigger navy and army than most European NATO members too because they seem a bit tired of our dithering. That's a million+ trained men, the largest arsenal of tubed artillery in Europe and a population that have been well trained for decades. 

We need to sort our stuff out.

I was paraphrasing ze German, he said the ‘old order’ of NATO and France pressed snooze whereas others closer to Russia thankfully didn’t. What we need to do is at the very least catch up with them, then decide if we want to walk the walk as well as talking like we’re still the big boys.

[magnkarl]

12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I was paraphrasing ze German, he said the ‘old order’ of NATO and France pressed snooze whereas others closer to Russia thankfully didn’t. What we need to do is at the very least catch up with them, then decide if we want to walk the walk as well as talking like we’re still the big boys.

Ze German is right, so is Ben Hodges.

I don't necessarily think that we need to compete with the Nordics with our land army, though it would be good if we could at least be able to keep up with our navy and air force. (Our navy is still by and large the biggest in Europe).

Norway and Denmark must be pleased that they've gotten two neighbours into NATO who actually give a darn.

[magnkarl]

On the North Koreans, I think the US and NATO will react on Nov 6th. Likely by allowing long range strikes.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

In order to deter a Russia attack on NATO territory it requires all countries in NATO to contribute.  That doesn't mean the UK needs a larger land army.  We don’t. 

Our forces are structured based upon the threats we face AND our geography AND our allies.  

We cannot and shouldn't have a land army on the scale of Poland.  Poland cannot and shouldn't have a navy on the scale of the UK.  Belgium doesn't need a nuclear deterrent because France and the UK provide ample deterrent on their behalf.  

We need to up our game but we need to target our resources to where it will have most impact.  If Poland wers attacked, 100 Stormshadow missiles launched by the RAF would do more damage to Russia than 1000 extra British soldiers.  

[villa89]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

On the North Koreans, I think the US and NATO will react on Nov 6th. Likely by allowing long range strikes.

And what a piss poor reaction it will be. 

[Anthony]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Ze German is right, so is Ben Hodges.

I don't necessarily think that we need to compete with the Nordics with our land army, though it would be good if we could at least be able to keep up with our navy and air force. (Our navy is still by and large the biggest in Europe).

Norway and Denmark must be pleased that they've gotten two neighbours into NATO who actually give a darn.

You and @Mandy Lifeboats IMO have it right, although I do take issue with your use of the word 'gotten'. Frankly, this is US entryism and should be called out publicly whenever it is identified.

Onto the various NATO/European countries and their armed forces, we are in a position, due to mutual trust built up over decades, where each country has its specialisms; not every country needs to do everything well. Looking at each country individually, some have rather unbalanced armed forces, but when you look in the context of alliances, a picture of complementary forces begins to appear. It's not perfect, by any means, and there will always be pressure from elements of society that insist their country does everything well, which is neither feasible nor affordable. As an aside, it works for economics too, which is why Brexit was always regressive, and the reason that the reality of it, and Johnson's implementation of it, is such a ****. Let's not go too far off topic though.

Of course the trust and delegation of initiative between the various members of NATO is a huge source of strength, and by contrast, the lack of trust within the Russian armed forces is a key weakness. It's also a key feature for them. It's all set up to be top down, so soldiers are trained to follow orders and not think for themselves. Soldiers that fail to learn this are a threat to those above them and are sidelined, removed, or sent to the front to die. Leveraging this advantage over the Russian armed forces is something to which they do not and cannot ever have a military response.

It may be useful to note that destroying trust between people, between nations, within nations and within organisations, is absolutely critical for Russia to have any success, whether militarily or politically, so as a result they devote huge resources to achieving it. See Brexit meddling, US election meddling, funding pretty much anyone that can muddy the waters. Of course they pay cash to informants in Ukraine, or pay people in the countries ranged against them to disrupt stuff or commit acts of terrorism. Whilst the acts themselves result in wins for Russia, the equally (more?) important role is the resource taken to counter these threats, and the mistrust and disunity created. Remember when I think it was Al Qaeda put a bomb in a printer and shipped it to somewhere in the EU? Cost them a few hundred quid, but it was detected and didn't go off. If it had blown up, that would have been a bonus, but them spending a few hundred quid in this way cost multiple millions in extra personnel, equipment and time. Ironically, due things put in place after that Al Qaeda action, we were able to prevent the Russians doing something similar recently, with a parcel on a DHL cargo plane.

[Xann]

We're skint and a step behind, because who we've had running the country?

Quote

UK, Japan, and Italy sign international stealth fighter jet programme treaty

UK signs international Treaty with Japan and Italy for a future combat air programme that aims to develop an innovative stealth fighter with supersonic capability and equipped with cutting-edge technology.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-japan-and-italy-sign-international-stealth-fighter-jet-programme-treaty

This is what we should have had in service now instead of paying for the US R&D, then through the nose for each F-35.

When our own plane arrives, drones may well be the kings of the air? They're not so bothered by extreme g forces and will stupid manoeuvrable compared to anything manned. 

We're just starting on this aircraft, and really it's the next ones that should be at the concept stage. They would be fairly fluid concepts too because drone warfare development is in overdrive.

Perhaps someone here might be able to reassure us that drone fighters and carriers, airborne and marine, are likely to be at a similar stage to what the Chinese have in the pipeline?

On top of the escalating arms race, it's not as if we and our partners don't have domestic problems that are being catalyzed by foreign interference.