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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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1 minute ago, Genie said:

Those donating the jets have to balance wanting to help as much as possible with the risk the jets might end up in the hands of the Russians to steal all the tech.

Indeed (and maybe the US ITAR permission limited them in which tech they could hand over, for exactly the reason you suggest) and also the donating nations would likely tend to giving their older jets to preserve their own capabilities 

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6 hours ago, blandy said:

I don’t know which versions of F16s were given to Ukraine, but suspect they would have been older ones. The thing is jets get various mid life upgrades and capability enhancements and such like over time and radar is one of those areas where new techniques and new technology have led to big jumps in capability in recent years. Another area is the cockpit itself where modern jets have 2 or 3 big iPad type displays and the pilots helmet has built in display on the visor, compared to the old style analogue instruments and CRT displays.

So how good the Ukraine F16s actually are is dependent on how much they’ve been upgraded over time and when they came off the production line.  I doubt though that they’ll be the latest versions with all the tech the USAF versions have - AESA Radar, active cockpits and all that jazz. They’ll probably be mechanically scanned array radar, and 1990s or early 2000s style cockpits - likely better than ancient soviet jets by a distance, but quite a bit down on what some nations have.

 

As far as I gather they are F16 C/D MLU's, with the ones donated from Norway being the most modern and close to the USAF versions (also likely why they're being held back?). 

Sad to see Moonfish dead, he's been an active proponent of videos and stuff from the Danish training centre 

Worth noting that each F-16 took down 4-5 missiles each during that big barrage, they're really valuable anti-air assets. Sidewinders are a heck of a lot cheaper than Patriot\Iris\Samp-T\NASAMS missiles.

Let's hope Norway can give Ukraine the JSM from their own production, hopefully the Scandinavian\Baltic spirit will give two flying #¤% about the US blocking long range attacks.

Edited by magnkarl
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2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

As far as I gather they are F16 C/D MLU

That tallies - mid 80s to early 90s versions. Kind of what I thought they might be.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c984g10e22lo

Quote

Russia has made sweeping advances in recent days that threaten to outweigh the gains made by Ukraine in its cross-border attack into the Kursk region.

Russian forces are just a few kilometres from the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics hub used by the Ukrainian military.

Home to a key railway station and major roads, Pokrovsk is an essential supply and reinforcement point for Ukraine’s troops on the eastern front line...

Looks like the Kursk attack was desperation. If true Ukraine is in serious trouble on the eastern front. Probably just hoping for a bad winter to slow down the russian advance. 

 

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2 minutes ago, villa89 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c984g10e22lo

Looks like the Kursk attack was desperation. If true Ukraine is in serious trouble on the eastern front. Probably just hoping for a bad winter to slow down the russian advance. 

 

Ah shit, that’s not good. 
 

Is it mainly because they don’t have enough equipment or not even men… or do Russia just have overwhelmingly too many men and artillery that nothing could stop the slow grinding advance?

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29 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Ah shit, that’s not good. 
 

Is it mainly because they don’t have enough equipment or not even men… or do Russia just have overwhelmingly too many men and artillery that nothing could stop the slow grinding advance?

Bit of column A, bit of column B.

Ukraine is very short on men at the moment because they delayed their most recent wave of mobilisation way too long, which means those mobilised are still being trained when they’re needed on the front lines right now.

When you couple this with the Russian glide bombs (for which the Ukrainians still don’t really have an answer) and the Russian willingness to sacrifice endless waves of men when attacking, Ukraine naturally just gets pushed back slowly.

The collapse since the Kursk attack has been unusually bad though. A lot of military analysts were saying at the time that it seemed bizarre to be attacking with large numbers of troops that were desperately needed in the East.

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38 minutes ago, villa89 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c984g10e22lo

Looks like the Kursk attack was desperation. If true Ukraine is in serious trouble on the eastern front. Probably just hoping for a bad winter to slow down the russian advance. 

 

The other issue that is glossed over in the BBC article is that the Russians don’t actually have to take the city to render it useless as a logistics hub. Just getting the key sites within artillery range will cut those supply lines.

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On 31/08/2024 at 20:27, Panto_Villan said:

Bit of column A, bit of column B.

Ukraine is very short on men at the moment because they delayed their most recent wave of mobilisation way too long, which means those mobilised are still being trained when they’re needed on the front lines right now.

When you couple this with the Russian glide bombs (for which the Ukrainians still don’t really have an answer) and the Russian willingness to sacrifice endless waves of men when attacking, Ukraine naturally just gets pushed back slowly.

The collapse since the Kursk attack has been unusually bad though. A lot of military analysts were saying at the time that it seemed bizarre to be attacking with large numbers of troops that were desperately needed in the East.

I don't think they were ever going to stop the advance in Pokrovsk even with the two brigades now in Kursk anyhow, and many people agree. It might have taken more time, but Ukraine had to do something to change the narrative. The glide bombs really negates how many men you have in a trench, and the only way to reduce the glide bombs is for the US to stop being so damn stubborn on long strikes against airfields. By the end of the month the front lines will be seriously bogged down, if Russia tries what they did in Bakhmut they won't have Pokrovsk before new year. They might do it differently this time, but it's still going to take a whole lot of combat power and air support.

At this point it seems to be a race between Ukraine destroying Russian petroleum industry and Russia trying to get the rest of the Donbass. The last wave of mobilisations in Ukraine should be ready come the new year, and then we're likely back to the grind unless the Democrats can find their balls somewhere after hopefully beating Trump.

Good thread here: 

 

Edited by magnkarl
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Here's one night of Ukraine hitting Russian power plants, Russia clearly crossed one of UA's red lines when hitting the Kyiv dam, they're done not hitting power generating infrastructure in Russia. Good job Putin.

The average temperature in some of these Russian regions is 5 degrees less than in Ukraine. I hope it was worth it Vlad.

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1 hour ago, villa89 said:

I assume Ukraine has re-enforced as they can't really afford to lose pokrovosk. 

Word in Ukraine seems to be that Madyar's Birds, the 36th brigade (with their finnish kit and leos), and some of the Southern groupings (Kara-dag) have been moved to Pokrovsk. The staggered mortar footage all over reddit today seems to suggest the 36th with their AMOS turreted mortar systems, in any case. Finland seems to be testing its best equipment with this brigade. 

Let's see how long it lasts. 

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16 hours ago, bickster said:

Thats gonna scare the shit out of you

 

Genuine question- is that not against the Geneva Convention?

I thought it was illegal: "it is prohibited in all circumstances to use incendiary weapons against the civilian population, civilian objects, forests or other kinds of plant cover"

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