Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Stan is upset. Some rant. Crazy to think this is all they air through their televisions 

[Enda]

1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Stan is upset. Some rant. Crazy to think this is all they air through their televisions 

Check out this boy’s LinkedIn. He is a manager for pizza company, and “open to work”. He’s a quack.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[magnkarl]

Yeah the rumours seems to have been spun up by disinformation on x. Likely musk, as per usual.

[magnkarl]

The word Kursk must be Vlad's least favorite word.

The first meeting he had with it after becoming president was when the nuclear sub Kursk sank off of Norway and the Norwegians could hear it all through their extensive listening network. Russia denied Norway helping them rescue the crew and they all died. Putin was forced onto TV to admit the government's failings.

And the current rendezvous with Kursk needs to explanation. It's a humiliation.

Edited August 19 by magnkarl

[Genie]

It’s incredible there has still been little to know response from the military superpower after their angry neighbour invaded and took control of multiple towns and villages. 

How long until Putin comes under pressure from within Russia, the government, the military or the population?

Its a complete humiliation yet he’s carrying on like it didn’t happen.

[mjmooney]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

How long until Putin comes under pressure from within Russia, the government, the military or the population? 

The population, never. The military, maybe. 

[Mozzavfc]

Final bridge over the Seym has been blown up, so Ukraine has effectively encircled the remaining Russian troops. Wonder if they'll be able to surrender or forced to fight to the last 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Mozzavfc said:

Final bridge over the Seym has been blown up, so Ukraine has effectively encircled the remaining Russian troops. Wonder if they'll be able to surrender or forced to fight to the last 

They'll be allowed to surrender, prisoner exchanges are mutually beneficial

[limpid]

Just now, bickster said:

They'll be allowed to surrender, prisoner exchanges are mutually beneficial

Wouldn't that require the command on site to be competent?

[ender4]

600,000 Russians killed or injured in the war so far as at today's update, according to most media who seem to track that sort of stuff.

I think Ukraine said they lose their own people at a 6:1 ratio, so they've also lost 100,000 people. 

That's like the whole of Manchester's population gone.

 

 

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, ender4 said:

600,000 Russians killed or injured in the war so far as at today's update, according to most media who seem to track that sort of stuff.

I think Ukraine said they lose their own people at a 6:1 ratio, so they've also lost 100,000 people. 

That's like the whole of Manchester's population gone.

 

 

Which would mean Man Utd losing 0 fans

[ender4]

Looks like Russia are advancing quite well on the main front line:

Quote

Ukrainian officials issue evacuation order for eastern city of Pokrovsk

Local authorities in Pokrovsk have ordered families with children to urgently evacuate, as Russian forces advance towards the eastern Ukrainian city.

In an interview with the U.S.-funded Radio Liberty, Serhiy Dobriak, the head of city’s military administration, said that Russian progress meant families should leave the city and other nearby towns. Civilians have “a week or two, no more,” Dobriak said, adding that authorities have the capacity to evacuate at least 1,000 people a day, but only 500-600 people per day are currently leaving.

For months Russian troops have been inching slowly through Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast region, making significant gains despite suffering heavy losses.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/aug/19/russia-ukraine-war-live-latest-updates-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vladimir-putin-kursk-incursion

 

It seems Russia are still intent on taking the area of Ukraine they want rather than repelling Ukraine in their own country. 

It's quite a brave and possibly clever tactic - ignore the Ukranians in Kurst and just carry on getting what they want. It's not like Ukraine are going to do anything with Kursk, except it means Ukraine have less soldiers to defend their own front line.

[magnkarl]

6 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Looks like Russia are advancing quite well on the main front line:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/aug/19/russia-ukraine-war-live-latest-updates-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vladimir-putin-kursk-incursion

 

It seems Russia are still intent on taking the area of Ukraine they want rather than repelling Ukraine in their own country. 

It's quite a brave and possibly clever tactic - ignore the Ukranians in Kurst and just carry on getting what they want. It's not like Ukraine are going to do anything with Kursk, except it means Ukraine have less soldiers to defend their own front line.

Russia has about 1 month until armored warfare is nigh on impossible. They're trying to grab as much as they can before November.

Make no mistake about it, Russia is using all they have for this, which is why they're not reinforcing Kursk. Ukraine can keep withdrawing for a while yet and take ground in Kursk. Even if Trump is elected then, he's got two sides who have each others territory. It's a much tougher equation for Russia. It appears to most people now that Russia can only do one thing at the moment, which is either the Donbas or defend their border. They appear to be electing the Donbas at a risk of losing their own territory. 

Either Russia removes their best divisions from Pokrovsk and Nui York, or they lose more ground in Kursk and likely Belgorod and Bryansk too as Ukraine can roll behind their defensive lines. Either way the Kursk situation is stretching Russia's aerial capability much more, and glide bomb strikes have dropped by about 50% in Donbas. For Ukraine this was happening anyway, so now they're at least doing something.

Edited August 19 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, Mozzavfc said:

Final bridge over the Seym has been blown up, so Ukraine has effectively encircled the remaining Russian troops. Wonder if they'll be able to surrender or forced to fight to the last 

Not sure it's a problem for the troops themselves. Some of the damaged bridges look like you could cross them on foot, and it's not a huge river anyway - it's more important in the sense that it prevents vehicles crossing the river, which makes supplying the area difficult and means Russia can't move any armoured vehicles into the area to help defend it (or attack the Ukrainian flank).

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Russia has about 1 month until armored warfare is nigh on impossible. They're trying to grab as much as they can before November.

Make no mistake about it, Russia is using all they have for this, which is why they're not reinforcing Kursk. Ukraine can keep withdrawing for a while yet and take ground in Kursk. Even if Trump is elected then, he's got two sides who have each others territory. It's a much tougher equation for Russia. It appears to most people now that Russia can only do one thing at the moment, which is either the Donbas or defend their border. They appear to be electing the Donbas at a risk of losing their own territory. 

Either Russia removes their best divisions from Pokrovsk and Nui York, or they lose more ground in Kursk and likely Belgorod and Bryansk too as Ukraine can roll behind their defensive lines. Either way the Kursk situation is stretching Russia's aerial capability much more, and glide bomb strikes have dropped by about 50% in Donbas. For Ukraine this was happening anyway, so now they're at least doing something.

Yeah, this is basically correct except for two things imo - firstly, I think the Russians now are reinforcing Kursk more seriously. That's why Ukrainian gains have slowed down, and why blowing the bridges is such a good plan. I doubt we'll see much more forward Ukrainian movement beyond taking the territory on this side of the river (which admittedly is still a lot of territory).

Secondly, I'm not sure the the Russians are really doing significant armoured warfare any more. I think their meat wave tactics in the east will continue to be viable when the weather changes. They're using a lot of light vehicles like buggies and dirt bikes that won't be affected so badly by the mud. If they continue advancing and get a foothold in Pokrovsk then I think Ukraine might be in trouble.

Edited August 19 by Panto_Villan

[ender4]

 

So i understand the new incursion near Tyotkino. They blow up the bridges along the river from Alekseyevka to Glushkovo and take that whole area South of the river.

But what's with the weird bit they've taken at Slobodka-Ivanovka in the North-West?

[chrisp65]

10 minutes ago, ender4 said:

 

But what's with the weird bit they've taken at Slobodka-Ivanovka in the North-West?

Apparently, a few of them got a Russian soldier drunk and he told a story of millions of dollars of Nazi gold hidden in a bank vault behind enemy lines.

So a rag tag bunch of them, weirdly acting like hippies for a World War Two movie, set out to get the gold.

 

[Nigel]

10 hours ago, ender4 said:

600,000 Russians killed or injured in the war so far as at today's update, according to most media who seem to track that sort of stuff.

I think Ukraine said they lose their own people at a 6:1 ratio, so they've also lost 100,000 people. 

That's like the whole of Manchester's population gone.

 

 

Apparently the figure is a lot more horrific for Ukraine. Russia have lost more obviously but the Ukraine figures are much higher than they would want us to believe. 

[bannedfromHandV]

7 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Apparently, a few of them got a Russian soldier drunk and he told a story of millions of dollars of Nazi gold hidden in a bank vault behind enemy lines.

So a rag tag bunch of them, weirdly acting like hippies for a World War Two movie, set out to get the gold.

 

Eating cheese and drinking wine along the way

[magnkarl]

14 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Not sure it's a problem for the troops themselves. Some of the damaged bridges look like you could cross them on foot, and it's not a huge river anyway - it's more important in the sense that it prevents vehicles crossing the river, which makes supplying the area difficult and means Russia can't move any armoured vehicles into the area to help defend it (or attack the Ukrainian flank).

Yeah, this is basically correct except for two things imo - firstly, I think the Russians now are reinforcing Kursk more seriously. That's why Ukrainian gains have slowed down, and why blowing the bridges is such a good plan. I doubt we'll see much more forward Ukrainian movement beyond taking the territory on this side of the river (which admittedly is still a lot of territory).

Secondly, I'm not sure the the Russians are really doing significant armoured warfare any more. I think their meat wave tactics in the east will continue to be viable when the weather changes. They're using a lot of light vehicles like buggies and dirt bikes that won't be affected so badly by the mud. If they continue advancing and get a foothold in Pokrovsk then I think Ukraine might be in trouble.

Agreed that armored attacks have slowed (likely due to not having that much more Soviet stuff to burn through), but while meat wave tactics are proving somewhat effective they are dependant on battle taxis and supplies who are often delivered via heavy equipment. And that said, I don't think it's the meatwave tactics alone that have caused the current lines to roll back at a slow pace every week, but rather the glide bombs.

The best we can do for Ukraine is to help them push back Russian air assets leading to less glide bomb sorties, i.e. allowing them to hit air fields with ATACMS, JASSM, Storm Shadow and Taurus (this needs to be delivered) asap without this insane 100km restriction on them. Russia is by all accounts bombing Ukrainian schools, hospitals and civilians with Western components, while Ukraine aren't allowed to even strike military assets in Russia with the same components.

This article by Rusi is damning in this regard.

Quote

In partnership with Reuters, RUSI identified at least 450 unique microelectronic components inside these systems that were produced by companies based in the US, Europe and East Asia.

TLDR; Russia enjoys near total missile dominance with components that are also present in the ATACMS, Storm Shadow and Taurus, yet we can't get our finger out.