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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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11 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Stalingrad level stuff this.

One rifle for 5 soldiers.

Flying in people who refuse to fight and expect them to do anything but surrender?

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2 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Flying in people who refuse to fight and expect them to do anything but surrender?

Oh there'll be barrier troops behind them to kill them if they run backwards

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Good for the exchange fund when they surrender. The PR from Kursk is not helping Putin, Russians seem happy that they’re getting aid and being treated by the rules of engagement. 

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It’s so bizarre there’s still no cavalry to try and clear out the Ukrainian soldiers.

I couldn’t imagine this happening in any other developed country. 

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18 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s so bizarre there’s still no cavalry to try and clear out the Ukrainian soldiers.

I couldn’t imagine this happening in any other developed country. 

It doesn't exist. And clear out makes it sound like a couple of stragglers. It's 10k+. They've been invaded.

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9 hours ago, Genie said:

It’s so bizarre there’s still no cavalry to try and clear out the Ukrainian soldiers.

I couldn’t imagine this happening in any other developed country. 

It seems to be that there aren't much cavalry.

It appears that people are of the opinion that Putin will need at least 25k soldiers from other front lines to dislodge the Ukrainians, conscripts, mentally disabled, prisoners and TikTokers won't solve it. If he moves 25k people from the front lines these will be severely understaffed. F¤#% if you do, ¤#% if you don't.

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The huge problem for Russia is simply getting those 25,000 men and their equipment to the front line without being attacked at their most vulnerable.  

There will be limited road and rail routes to the front line.  All of which will be under constant surveillance.  Moving a large number of troops at once will leave Russia vulnerable to attack.  Their only viable option is to build up their forces slowly.  

Hopefully Ukraine will use this delay to dig in, set up nasty surprises and prepare infrastructure for demolition. 

The massive question is whether Russia can gain air superiority IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY against small amounts of NATO air defence weapons. That's embarrassing. 🤣

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Posted (edited)

I suppose the big question is what will Ukraine do if Russia just left them?

Taking the russian view Ukraine can't really push much further or risk getting isolated and cut off; They are causing no real damage to the people or property either.

If it wasn't for putins ego and the perceived slight then it would be the best option to keep them away from the real front lines.

This does beg the question of what the primary aims are, hopefully they are more than simply staitioning soldiers there, that they can really get putins full attention. 

Edited by Nigel
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15 minutes ago, Nigel said:

I suppose the big question is what will Ukraine do if Russia just left them?

Taking the russian view Ukraine can't really push much further or risk getting isolated and cut off; They are causing no real damage to the people or property either.

If it wasn't for putins ego and the perceived slight then it would be the best option to keep them away from the real front lines.

This does beg the question of what the primary aims are, hopefully they are more than simply staitioning soldiers there, that they can really get putins full attention. 

If Putin doesn't move forward and counter-attack then Ukraine can do the same in Bryansk and Belgorod. He won't be able to just sit back as Russia will need to move several million people internally. The economy is already in the bowl, I doubt it'll handle this for very long on top of all the other things.

Xi is also apparently very disappointed in Putin that he can't get this war over with, and now that he's losing his own territory on top of it the pressure will likely rise from China. It's not a good look for Xi either. Putin is being held with quite minimal Western effort, we could do the same to the much more brittle Chinese economy over a potential invasion of Taiwan.

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2 hours ago, Nigel said:

This does beg the question of what the primary aims are, hopefully they are more than simply staitioning soldiers there, 

Ukraine is slowly losing land in the east. The aim of this operation is to take russian land and use that as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations. If Russia wants their land back they have to sit down with Ukraine. 

I said it in here a long time ago, Long term this will all end in a peace settlement with Ukraine losing the eastern portion of their country and crimea and getting NATO membership and an accelerated path to EU membership. Putin will paint it as a win and then try to rebuild his economy. Ukraine will get western funds and investment to rebuild their economy. 

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35 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Ukraine is slowly losing land in the east. The aim of this operation is to take russian land and use that as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations. If Russia wants their land back they have to sit down with Ukraine. 

 

I realise this is one of the reasons for the initial push.  However this will involve holding at some point and there will be a tipping point at which they overstretch and will find themselves too spread out.

There must be a reason, an end game.

The way things are going Russia could well take the areas they want without need for negotiation, it's just a matter of time. It's going to be easier for them too without the troops that are now out of the way 'holding' the Russian oblast. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Nigel said:

I realise this is one of the reasons for the initial push.  However this will involve holding at some point and there will be a tipping point at which they overstretch and will find themselves too spread out.

There must be a reason, an end game.

The way things are going Russia could well take the areas they want without need for negotiation, it's just a matter of time. It's going to be easier for them too without the troops that are now out of the way 'holding' the Russian oblast. 

 

 

I don't think the war will be won or lost on the battle field,  it will be down to the opinions of the Russian people. Now conscripts of the Rich and influential Russians are being took captive,  loads were sent to border patrol thinking it would be safe, the pressure will build on Putin. 

On the battle field......the fact they can't control their own airspace is unbelievable, how far this goes hasn't been tested, I'm guessing Moscow will have air defense systems still in place but how many other places will, the  Ukrainian airforce flying over Russians in Russia is a major embarrassment and it can't be explained away with excuses from Putin,  it's there for the population to see. 

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I would suspect there were options at the start of the incursion and there is every chance the lack of resistance has caused the plan to change.

Aren’t we told war plans generally don’t survive the first day of war. I don’t think they’d have seen themselves 11 days in taking road signs as soveneirs.

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23 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Aren’t we told war plans generally don’t survive the first day of war. I don’t think they’d have seen themselves 11 days in taking road signs as soveneirs.

Not so sure about that, they always knew it was lightly defended. The Russian and Georgian legions attached to the Ukrainian Army had at least three little trips of a day or more into Russia last year and they met with very little resistance each time. Ukraine denied responsibility on the others because they sent only Russians and Georgians. It seems the Russians didn't learn the lessons of those minor incursions.

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37 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Germany are stopping military aid now. Scholzing to new levels 

There’s small print to this though, when you read the articles, later in they mention that there’s still $300million in Russian assets they’ve seized that can be used, it just isn’t coming from central funding.

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