Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

Ukraine won’t have time to put up proper fortifications to defend the territory taken, and they don’t have authorisation to use HIMARS against enemy targets in Russia outside Kharkiv.

This isn't right either, they can use HIMARS, but not ATACMS.

[villa89]

34 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I think it’s extremely unlikely they told the US what they were planning here, tbh.

I think just the opposite. Of course the US and NATO will say they didn't know what Ukraine had planned because they don't want to be seen to be supporting an attack on Russian soil because they are scared of "escalation". In reality they would have provided planning support, satellite imagery, etc. for this incursion. I'm sure all of Ukraines tactics are being supported by the best military minds in the west. 

[magnkarl]

The reality is that Russia isn't prepared internally, it's what Wagner showed last year. Their whole apparatus is in South and East Ukraine. The size of this attack is likely more than enough to cause considerable trouble for Russia.

They could wait for reserves who generally take weeks to mobilise, if they have any left. They could try Akhmat who ran away when Ukraine came, they can activate Rosgvardia who are mainly in Russia's big population centres, they'd need equipment and a chain of command.

The fix for Russia isn't a quick one. The only 'quick-ish' fix they could probably make is to move soldiers from the East, but even then the rail connecting Belgorod and Kursk is in Ukrainian hands, they'd need to transport troops and equipment far without trains, and likely within M270, F16, FPV and HIMARS range.

[tinker]

I can't see the Ukraine just hot footing it into Russia without all possible scenarios being thoroughly thought through by the themselves and their allies. This sort of intrusion shows all the hallmarks of a special forces type mission with support. The very fact f16 were overhead tells you alot about Russia's air defenses or lack of them over Russia.

Putin will be panicking, it's his weak spot and the Ukraine have took advantage of it. If Russian troops pull back from the Ukraine then their supply lines will be cut and they will be surrounded on both sides, fighting, if they make it back to Russian soil, with little or no air support and f16 flying overhead. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

A few months ago Romania was hit by a drone which overshot Ukraine.  (Yes.....Russia shot something at a country....and missed).  Romania now shoots down drones over Ukraine in order to prevent any more accidental strikes.  You can bet that Poland is doing the same.  

NATO is slowly gaining air superiority over western Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to move its air defences to central Ukraine. 

Russia's airforce is now very stretched.  They need to protect the largest country in the world. Their ability to do that is constantly tested by NATO from all directions.  They have already lost a large proportion of their early warning  planes and their command planes.  

I wonder if the Kursk incursion is an attempt to lure Russia's airforce into a dangerous area and create conflict between Putin, the airforce and the army.  

 

 

 

 

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

What are those reserves, there's no indication of how large they are or how well trained they are in that post, it only says they'll activate 'reserves'.

Conscripts and Rosgvardia. Not really soldiers, more akin to militia. Most reserves, even according to Russian propagandists, have been pressured into joining the war already, so you're left with rich families, kids of people with power and 18 year olds.

A whole convoy of Russian conscripts and border guards were just absolutely taken apart by German weaponry near Rylsk, it's plastered all over reddit. 

When there’s numerous military analysts saying the Russians have enough reserves to contain the advance (I’ll post another one below, although I doubt you’re actually interested), the onus is really on you to prove why you think Russia have literally every soldier on the frontlines in Donetsk. Why should I believe some randomer on VT who is constantly claiming Russia is on the verge of collapse over the professionals?

Most of them seem to be implying it’s because they can just pull forces from their other army groups - most likely the center group that attacked Kharkiv with large numbers of troops not very long ago.

Russia propagandists have their own agenda and it’s in their interests to doom about this. They’re not a reliable source here.

 

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, villa89 said:

I think just the opposite. Of course the US and NATO will say they didn't know what Ukraine had planned because they don't want to be seen to be supporting an attack on Russian soil because they are scared of "escalation". In reality they would have provided planning support, satellite imagery, etc. for this incursion. I'm sure all of Ukraines tactics are being supported by the best military minds in the west. 

The US are either scared of escalation or they’re not. If they are (which they are), they clearly would have shut down this op if told about it in advance.

If they weren’t scared of escalation, they wouldn’t have had ridiculous targeting restrictions on Ukraine attacking Russia for most of the war, some of which remain even now.

There’s no halfway house where they want to avoid provoking Russia so they quietly approve the Ukrainians carrying out the largest provocation they possibly can. This action only makes sense from the Ukrainian perspective, where they’re proving that NATO doesn’t actually need to be as wary of escalation as they currently are. They’re asking for forgiveness, not asking permission.

[magnkarl]

51 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

When there’s numerous military analysts saying the Russians have enough reserves to contain the advance (I’ll post another one below, although I doubt you’re actually interested), the onus is really on you to prove why you think Russia have literally every soldier on the frontlines in Donetsk. Why should I believe some randomer on VT who is constantly claiming Russia is on the verge of collapse over the professionals?

Most of them seem to be implying it’s because they can just pull forces from their other army groups - most likely the center group that attacked Kharkiv with large numbers of troops not very long ago.

Russia propagandists have their own agenda and it’s in their interests to doom about this. They’re not a reliable source here.

 

They have enough soldiers to halt the advance, for sure. Those soldiers will include conscripts of which Ukraine have already captured loads because they don't want to fight:

Russian soldiers surrender en masse in Kursk Oblast - new video

Quote

While Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov vows to "defeat" the Ukrainian Army and the Kremlin political clown Dmitry Medvedev still threatens to "capture Kyiv," dozens of Russian soldiers in Kursk are reportedly surrendering to Ukraine.

I'm questioning when these soldiers will get there, and in which shape they're supposed to be in. The interior of Russia is extremely brittle.

Unless you're seeing something I'm not, Ukraine have used Western weapons inside Kursk, including HIMARS in Rylsk, are now well on the way to Kursk NPP, and have yet to meet any opposition that indicates a large reserve being available for Russia. Being a reservist myself for half of my life, we're not looking at a 2 day mobilisation - it literally takes weeks to get reserves in play.

As for the play here, you've got as good of a guess as I do. The PR side is definitely not good for Putin.

KNPP produces something like half of the energy in Southern Russia, it would be very cold and dark in Russia if Ukraine were to do what the Russians have with ZNPP to it.

Also worth noting that since Ukraine went into Kursk Russia hasn't captured anything in the East, so it is having some effect.

Edited August 9 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

25 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

They have enough soldiers to halt the advance, for sure. Those soldiers will include conscripts of which Ukraine have already captured loads because they don't want to fight:

Russian soldiers surrender en masse in Kursk Oblast - new video

I'm questioning when these soldiers will get there, and in which shape they're supposed to be in. The interior of Russia is extremely brittle.

Unless you're seeing something I'm not, Ukraine have used Western weapons inside Kursk, including HIMARS in Rylsk, are now well on the way to Kursk NPP, and have yet to meet any opposition that indicates a large reserve being available for Russia. Being a reservist myself for half of my life, we're not looking at a 2 day mobilisation - it literally takes weeks to get reserves in play.

As for the play here, you've got as good of a guess as I do. The PR side is definitely not good for Putin.

KNPP produces something like half of the energy in Southern Russia, it would be very cold and dark in Russia if Ukraine were to do what the Russians have with ZNPP to it.

I think you’re maybe confusing the concept of strategic reserves with reservist soldiers. You’re right that it takes time to call up reservist soldiers, but the analysts are talking about strategic reserves here - fully-equipped active duty soldiers who aren’t currently in combat.

The Russians have built up quite a few forces near Kharkiv in recent weeks, for example, and I think what people are saying is that Russia can (theoretically) move their forces from there to stop the Ukrainian advance.

The young conscripts you saw surrendering en-mass would have been border guards, who clearly didn’t put up too much resistance. But they were never going to be the problem.

The question now is what happens next? Is Ukraine going to commit more units into the breach? Are they going to be able to ambush enough of the reserves as they enter the area to force Russia to pull more forces from elsewhere? We just don’t know.

All I’m saying is that we can’t get too excited yet. Ukraine have used several elite units to break through a lightly-defended border, which has been a great PR victory, but we’ll find out over the next week or so whether they can hold the territory against the Russian reinforcements (who won’t be the troops from the Donbas, unless the situation gets much worse for the Russians).

If they can’t, I’m not sure we’ll be able to chalk this operation up as a success. If they can then it’ll be a valuable bargaining chip in any peace negotiations.

[magnkarl]

16 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I think you’re maybe confusing the concept of strategic reserves with reservist soldiers. You’re right that it takes time to call up reservist soldiers, but the analysts are talking about strategic reserves here - fully-equipped active duty soldiers who aren’t currently in combat.

The Russians have built up quite a few forces near Kharkiv in recent weeks, for example, and I think what people are saying is that Russia can (theoretically) move their forces from there to stop the Ukrainian advance.

The young conscripts you saw surrendering en-mass would have been border guards, who clearly didn’t put up too much resistance. But they were never going to be the problem.

The question now is what happens next? Is Ukraine going to commit more units into the breach? Are they going to be able to ambush enough of the reserves as they enter the area to force Russia to pull more forces from elsewhere? We just don’t know.

All I’m saying is that we can’t get too excited yet. Ukraine have used several elite units to break through a lightly-defended border, which has been a great PR victory, but we’ll find out over the next week or so whether they can hold the territory against the Russian reinforcements (who won’t be the troops from the Donbas, unless the situation gets much worse for the Russians).

If they can’t, I’m not sure we’ll be able to chalk this operation up as a success. If they can then it’ll be a valuable bargaining chip in any peace negotiations.

Russia might have some strategic reserves in Belgorod as you say, but again, Russian commanders are saying that they've had up to 80% attrition in this theater - these units aren't in great shape. Then they need to up and drive to Kursk as Ukraine has the railway under control. It will take days before Russia can mount anything other than local militia and reserves who may report early, and aviation which seems to be shot down a lot more than usual (f-16's?)

Ukraine might just up and run too and then repeat this elsewhere. In any case I think it'll lead to Russia having to allocate a lot more resources to their long border, alleviating pressure on the Eastern front for Ukraine. It's brought the war to Russia, to their people, to the brainwashed people who've been supporting genocide and kidnapping. That can't be anything but good.

[magnkarl]

Applause.

[sidcow]

3 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Applause.

I fully expect that convoy to conveniently park up somewhere in a nicely packed formation when they get near the front lines as well. 

[magnkarl]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I fully expect that convoy to conveniently park up somewhere in a nicely packed formation when they get near the front lines as well. 

It's like they learnt NOTHING in the last 2 and a half years..

Likely because these commanders are rosgvardia or militia commanders and are totally green, while the others are in the East.

Edited August 9 by magnkarl

[trekka]

[trekka]

[trekka]

[sidcow]

The West could do with a massive campaign of disinformation in Russia. Get a massive pool of money and resources together to carry out a sustained campaign. Beat them at their own bloody game. 

[magnkarl]

Ukraine have also gone for a few villages in Belgorod oblast, just to compound the issues for Russia. Georgian legion apparently.

Poroz already captured, ahem, liberated, by Ukraine.

Edited August 10 by magnkarl

[magnkarl]

Seems UAF are going after sub stations outside KNPP. It means blackouts for lots of the oblasts around Kursk.

Russians possibly starting to feel what it’s like.

Putin’s choices seem bad no matter what he does. 

Edited August 10 by magnkarl

[villa89]

 

Edited August 11 by villa89