Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

5 hours ago, villa89 said:

Doesn't matter, Orban can still Veto any EU support for Ukraine and start Veto'ing everything the EU tries to do, even if it's not Ukraine related. 

The EU keeps Hungary afloat. They have no power anymore.

[magnkarl]

There’s not enough windows in Moscow. Village after village getting captured.

17 kms from Kursk nuclear power plant. Same kind of unstable reactor technology that was in Chernobyl without the hardened domes around it.

Feels a bit like when Ukraine liberated Kharkiv and Kherson. The speed is immense.

Edited August 8 by magnkarl

[villa89]

I imagine once you get past the first and second defense lines of the Russian army they have nothing left. Russia have also thrown a lot of man power at their offense so I assume their defenses are very light, especially inside Russia where they would assume Ukraine couldn't attack. 

Edited August 8 by villa89

[tinker]

I wonder how far they will push into Russia,  obviously satellite images will have shown any Russia forces that could stop them, if there is any in.amy great number.

[ender4]

9 minutes ago, tinker said:

I wonder how far they will push into Russia,  obviously satellite images will have shown any Russia forces that could stop them, if there is any in.amy great number.

Logistics becomes an issue if they go too far in.  

They could take a few kilometres as a buffer zone along the border with Ukraine and then go left and right to extend that buffer zone.  

Or to take enough then go sharp right, loop over the Russian defences in Ukraine and then go back down into Ukraine. 
 

Or take a chunk and hold it and re-enforce it with defences and AA.  But I assume Russia are going to bring troops, vehicles and palaces to the area ASAP so it’s going to be hard to hold without losing a lot of men. 
 

 

[tinker]

7 hours ago, ender4 said:

Logistics becomes an issue if they go too far in.  

They could take a few kilometres as a buffer zone along the border with Ukraine and then go left and right to extend that buffer zone.  

Or to take enough then go sharp right, loop over the Russian defences in Ukraine and then go back down into Ukraine. 
 

Or take a chunk and hold it and re-enforce it with defences and AA.  But I assume Russia are going to bring troops, vehicles and palaces to the area ASAP so it’s going to be hard to hold without losing a lot of men. 
 

 

They will need to bring air defense systems with them which will weaken other areas. Prigozhin's March towards Moscow showed there was little resistance, if they could get to a major town/ city then the Russia press and people would surely start to report on the incursion, an embarrassing situation for Putin, he couldn't carpet bomb his own town/city.......could he? 

[magnkarl]

15 minutes ago, tinker said:

They will need to bring air defense systems with them which will weaken other areas. Prigozhin's March towards Moscow showed there was little resistance, if they could get to a major town/ city then the Russia press and people would surely start to report on the incursion, an embarrassing situation for Putin, he couldn't carpet bomb his own town/city.......could he? 

He's already doing that, it's what Ukraine wants.

I think this might be a way for Ukraine to bring attention to the Russian people. Telegram is swamped with civilians talking about how fair the Ukraine soldiers are treating them and how the Russian forces are essentially using artillery and glide bombs to little effect except for destroying buildings in Russia.

Likely Ukraine has several plans, and will go for whichever plan suits if the attacks goes well. I think it's gone better than they expected. 

Funnily, Leopard 2's and Abrams have been spotted doing what they were designed to do in Russia where there isn't trenches and obstacles every 100meters. Hopefully Ukraine envelopes more of the border.

[magnkarl]

The amount of Russian trolls posting unhinged things in the comments of this wonderful account is just awesome.

Copium for the pro-Russian idiots!

[magnkarl]

To top it all off, the FBI have raided Scott Ritter's house. One more Russian agent down the drain.

[Panto_Villan]

To be the boring voice of reason once again - most serious analysts seem to think this foray into Russia is likely to hurt Ukraine more than it helps then.

Ukraine has sent large numbers of troops over the border at a time when their lines are in disarray in the Donbas due to lack of infantry, causing them to consistently lose ground to the Russians.

It’s unlikely that Russia will have to pull back frontline troops to deal with the incursion as they’ve got lots of reserves in Russia they can use to deal with it.

Ukraine won’t have time to put up proper fortifications to defend the territory taken, and they don’t have authorisation to use HIMARS against enemy targets in Russia outside Kharkiv.

The gas pipelines are irrelevant because those pipelines go through Ukraine anyway. If Ukraine wanted to turn them off, they don’t need to go into Russia to do it.

Hopefully this will turn into a major coup for Ukraine, but there’s a real risk it ends up being a largely pointless operation that costs troops that could be better used elsewhere.

[sidcow]

13 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

To be the boring voice of reason once again - most serious analysts seem to think this foray into Russia is likely to hurt Ukraine more than it helps then.

Ukraine has sent large numbers of troops over the border at a time when their lines are in disarray in the Donbas due to lack of infantry, causing them to consistently lose ground to the Russians.

It’s unlikely that Russia will have to pull back frontline troops to deal with the incursion as they’ve got lots of reserves in Russia they can use to deal with it.

Ukraine won’t have time to put up proper fortifications to defend the territory taken, and they don’t have authorisation to use HIMARS against enemy targets in Russia outside Kharkiv.

The gas pipelines are irrelevant because those pipelines go through Ukraine anyway. If Ukraine wanted to turn them off, they don’t need to go into Russia to do it.

Hopefully this will turn into a major coup for Ukraine, but there’s a real risk it ends up being a largely pointless operation that costs troops that could be better used elsewhere.

I seriously doubt they've done this without the advice and strategic support of NATO military advisors. 

I'm sure there is a high level thought out strategic plan going on here. 

[Panto_Villan]

15 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I seriously doubt they've done this without the advice and strategic support of NATO military advisors. 

I'm sure there is a high level thought out strategic plan going on here. 

I think it’s extremely unlikely they told the US what they were planning here, tbh.

[Genie]

Do Russia really have large numbers of reserves just chilling waiting for deployment?

[Genie]

Just now, Panto_Villan said:

I think it’s extremely unlikely they told the US what they were planning here, tbh.

They’d be stupid not to, given where all their ammo comes from.

[magnkarl]

34 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

It’s unlikely that Russia will have to pull back frontline troops to deal with the incursion as they’ve got lots of reserves in Russia they can use to deal with it.

Those reserves you mention are conscripts with little to no training.

It's not the same. Losing the kids of people who got their kids into 'safe' positions along the border and not to front line contracted positions are what Ukraine is going after.

Who are all these people saying that this will hurt Ukraine, by the way?

Edited August 9 by magnkarl

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, Panto_Villan said:

I think it’s extremely unlikely they told the US what they were planning here, tbh.

Both the EU and US were very quick with saying that Ukraine has all right to do this.

[magnkarl]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

Do Russia really have large numbers of reserves just chilling waiting for deployment?

No. It's bogus.

[Panto_Villan]

Yes, I’m sure that the US, which until very recently wouldn’t even allow Ukraine to shoot US weapons over the border at Russian forces attacking Ukraine gave the okay to Ukraine actively invading Russian territory. Doing it without telling them means the US has no choice but to go along with it, which is clearly what happened here.

As for the existence of Russian reserves, you can disbelieve them if it’s inconvenient for your personal worldview, but unfortunately the Ukrainian troops on the ground don’t have that luxury.

Give this thread a read for a point of view from a Ukrainian analyst.

 

 

[magnkarl]

16 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Yes, I’m sure that the US, which until very recently wouldn’t even allow Ukraine to shoot US weapons over the border at Russian forces attacking Ukraine gave the okay to Ukraine actively invading Russian territory. Doing it without telling them means the US has no choice but to go along with it, which is clearly what happened here.

As for the existence of Russian reserves, you can disbelieve them if it’s inconvenient for your personal worldview, but unfortunately the Ukrainian troops on the ground don’t have that luxury.

Give this thread a read for a point of view from a Ukrainian analyst.

 

 

What are those reserves, there's no indication of how large they are or how well trained they are in that post, it only says they'll activate 'reserves'.

Conscripts and Rosgvardia. Not really soldiers, more akin to militia. Most reserves, even according to Russian propagandists, have been pressured into joining the war already, so you're left with rich families, kids of people with power and 18 year olds.

A whole convoy of Russian conscripts and border guards were just absolutely taken apart by German weaponry near Rylsk, it's plastered all over reddit. 

Edited August 9 by magnkarl

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Putin has insisted that this is a war between Russia and NATO.  

Using his own narrative it follows that NATO has now invaded Russia. 

Let's not forget that Putin said in 2022 that anyone interfering with the special military operation would experience immediate action never seen before in history. 

Embarrassing. 

Quote

 “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history.”

“no one should have any doubts that a direct attack on our country will lead to the destruction and horrible consequences for any potential aggressor.”

 

Edited August 9 by Mandy Lifeboats
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