chrisp65 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Would there be any reason to suspect that the third re drawing of the border in 10 years would be the last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 21 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Would there be any reason to suspect that the third re drawing of the border in 10 years would be the last? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 3 hours ago, LondonLax said: Germany is halving their military spending in Ukraine in next year’s budget. Ukraine being hung out to dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) Luckily everything has an end, both a US presidential term and the life of a tin-pot Russian dictator. Both getting very close to their expiry date, and Putin is showing no signs of grooming his successor. Edited July 18 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 39 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Would there be any reason to suspect that the third re drawing of the border in 10 years would be the last? They didn’t redraw the borders before did they? At least not outside of Russia. Good point though, hopefully Russia has a regime change before they are ready to mount the next invasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) 2 hours ago, blandy said: I’m not sure that’s completely coherent, though I could be wrong. In no particular order, I don’t think the production base is larger in Europe and in no small part this is because the US budget for defence is much larger and this brings economies of scale. The European base is more fragmented too. Next is the “allow Europe to disengage from the US” bit and the “There's absolutely no reason why we should be so reliant on the US if they're behaving like this” bit. They’re both the consequence and aim of the Trump outlook particularly and US generally and to an extent they’re right. Firstly Europe has relied on the US to be big brother protector with all the pros and cons that brings and secondly the US is looking towards China and wants and needs to focus in that area, rather than spending time, money and effort in Europe. China is the “threat” to the US dominance in the world. And the US needs allies to deal with this, just like we need our allies to deal with Putin. China, Iran (both Trump hates) and Russia are best buds now. I don't think the US can deal with China without the other two getting involved. The EU, for all its faults, has a bigger population pool than the US, we need to be able to make our own stuff, which by all accounts is pretty much on par with US stuff anyway. Edited July 18 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 On 18/07/2024 at 11:52, magnkarl said: Luckily everything has an end, both a US presidential term and the life of a tin-pot Russian dictator. Both getting very close to their expiry date, and Putin is showing no signs of grooming his successor. Vlad the genocider isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And the upcoming fours years of Trump and JD Vance will be catastrophic for Ukraine. European countries are most concerned with defence and stopping things getting worse. This leads to increased costs because its much harder to defend than it is to attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 If Trump pulls US funding then the war will carry on with others filling the void. It’ll be an act of self harm on the US economy. I don’t think Trump will convince Zelensky to give up the land, it’ll just drive a wedge between the US and Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 20 VT Supporter Share Posted July 20 2 hours ago, villa89 said: because its much harder to defend than it is to attack. Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 15 minutes ago, sidcow said: Is it? Traditionally no, but conventional warfare is in transition. Swarm drones and other robots are completely changing the battlefield. China's manufacturing capabilities make them particularly scary. Attempts to offset the change in balance may involve more countries looking to join defence alliances or obtain nuclear weapons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 On 20/07/2024 at 13:31, Xann said: Traditionally no, but conventional warfare is in transition. Swarm drones and other robots are completely changing the battlefield. China's manufacturing capabilities make them particularly scary. Attempts to offset the change in balance may involve more countries looking to join defence alliances or obtain nuclear weapons? Drones are as, if not more, effective for the defender. Ukraine has essentially held Russia for large parts of this spring when the US was being silly with FPV drones. NATO, and in particular, Norway, the UK and the US are working hard at creating autonomous systems to shoot down drones. Kongsberg in Norway in particular have developed some incredible machinery for this, likely 20-30 years ahead of anything Russia\China\Iran can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Apparently a drone hit Romanian territory in the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 5 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Apparently a drone hit Romanian territory in the night Meh, nothing will happen as a result of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 5 hours ago, magnkarl said: Drones are as, if not more, effective for the defender. Ukraine has essentially held Russia for large parts of this spring when the US was being silly with FPV drones. American defence scenarios now include attack by a million strong drone swarm, so that's them thinking the battlefield is in transition too Drone warfare is in its infancy and AI is becoming ever more potent. The response to guided munitions being intercepted is to hit softer targets. Add to that whilst it may not be cost effective to hit let's say a civilian electrical substation with a state of the art precision weapon that costs $$$$$, it's totally cost effective to blow up civilian infrastructure with a $70 drone with a $20 dollar munition strapped to it. Suppose the silver lining to this is battery technology is going to become a key military strategic issue? Particularly in attacking an island nation like Taiwan or the UK, the further away your drone carrier submarine can surface and the drones still make the target, the more of a threat they'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 On 20/07/2024 at 11:16, Genie said: If Trump pulls US funding then the war will carry on with others filling the void. It’ll be an act of self harm on the US economy. I don’t think Trump will convince Zelensky to give up the land, it’ll just drive a wedge between the US and Europe. Europe might be wealthy enough to support Ukraine, but it doesn't actually build enough military stuff to sustain their war effort. Ukraine needs the US, unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said: Europe might be wealthy enough to support Ukraine, but it doesn't actually build enough military stuff to sustain their war effort. Ukraine needs the US, unfortunately. Indeed. It would mean European countries buying equipment from the US. Probably a good scenario for JD Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 24 Moderator Share Posted July 24 8 hours ago, magnkarl said: NATO, and in particular, Norway, the UK and the US are working hard at creating autonomous systems to shoot down drones I think you need to be careful with the terminology. NATO is't creating any weapon system, including "drones". Nations are. Shooting down drones (or anything else) with autonomous systems is not quite accurate either. The final stage is human in the loop. It's kind of the rules of engagement - a human has to be legally responsible. Whether it's traditional bullets/projectiles or in the current field of DEW such as lasers, the tracking and aiming of weapons has been automatic for a good while, now, but "firing" isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted July 24 VT Supporter Share Posted July 24 This story was in a lot of newspapers yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 On 24/07/2024 at 17:17, blandy said: I think you need to be careful with the terminology. NATO is't creating any weapon system, including "drones". Nations are. Shooting down drones (or anything else) with autonomous systems is not quite accurate either. The final stage is human in the loop. It's kind of the rules of engagement - a human has to be legally responsible. Whether it's traditional bullets/projectiles or in the current field of DEW such as lasers, the tracking and aiming of weapons has been automatic for a good while, now, but "firing" isn't. This is interesting, isn't it. Drones in Ukraine use AI to get to their target if they get jammed. Where does this fall in within the rulebook? Surely just 'arming' a laser system to shoot down drones would be the same as launching a missile from a plane which finds its target itself, akin to the joint strike or naval strike missiles who can get to their goals without external input? Where's the boundary? It's a fascinating subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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