chrisp65 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 30 minutes ago, blandy said: What? Where did you conjure that up from? I thought we were discussing what various folk (including each other) had said. I completely misread one of your sentences about who was in which universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 13 Moderator Share Posted July 13 2 hours ago, chrisp65 said: I completely misread one of your sentences about who was in which universe. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Time to buy back part public ownership of the arms companies, works a treat in Norway, Finland, Poland and the like. Might reduce the shadows that people are chasing at least a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Noted Anti Ukraine support senator JD Vance in as vice president when trump wins in November. Soon European countries will find themselves unable to rely on the US for help. This may result in Ukraine accepting a peace treaty that they shouldn't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 12 minutes ago, villa89 said: Noted Anti Ukraine support senator JD Vance in as vice president when trump wins in November. Soon European countries will find themselves unable to rely on the US for help. This may result in Ukraine accepting a peace treaty that they shouldn't have to. Their efforts are sponsored by others so they can only go on as long as their sponsors are willing to fund it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Indeed. European countries seem blind to the fact Trump was always going to oust half dead Joe. It will be interesting to see just how badly Ukraine get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) It'll likely be up to Europe and the Asian countries donating aid + Australia to keep Ukraine in it. Can we? Probably, if Germany and France get their ¤%# together. Will we? Probably not. Ex Soviet EU countries and Scandinavia might keep Ukraine in the fight, but I don't see how. The US might as well just step down and stop spending on defense. They'll be forever tarnished if they let Ukraine be carved up by Putin. That being said, US arms companies donate HEAPS to the GOP, so I don't really see how they're going to let such a fruitful venture go when 99% of the aid donated to Ukraine goes to new US production while they're sending old kit to Ukraine. Even Trump can't be that stupid. My guess is they'll "sell" equipment to Ukraine rather than donating it, and then the Democrats can forgive the loans when they're back in. It lets Trump save face with his mouth-breathing extreme right, and still allows US companies to make dosh. There's still a whole load of Bradleys just standing around in the US which no one wants to buy, it'd be mad of Trump not to donate them for profit in lieu of aid and they seem to be by far the most effective armoured vehicle operating in the conflict. Edited July 16 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Posted July 16 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16 1 hour ago, magnkarl said: It'll likely be up to Europe and the Asian countries donating aid + Australia to keep Ukraine in it. Can we? Probably, if Germany and France get their ¤%# together. Will we? Probably not. Ex Soviet EU countries and Scandinavia might keep Ukraine in the fight, but I don't see how. The US might as well just step down and stop spending on defense. They'll be forever tarnished if they let Ukraine be carved up by Putin. That being said, US arms companies donate HEAPS to the GOP, so I don't really see how they're going to let such a fruitful venture go when 99% of the aid donated to Ukraine goes to new US production while they're sending old kit to Ukraine. Even Trump can't be that stupid. My guess is they'll "sell" equipment to Ukraine rather than donating it, and then the Democrats can forgive the loans when they're back in. It lets Trump save face with his mouth-breathing extreme right, and still allows US companies to make dosh. There's still a whole load of Bradleys just standing around in the US which no one wants to buy, it'd be mad of Trump not to donate them for profit in lieu of aid and they seem to be by far the most effective armoured vehicle operating in the conflict. Is this an instance where the secret brethren, Davos clique and the Illuminati work in humanity's favour? I was always a believer, me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) No, Europe can't realistically keep Ukraine supplied alone if the US is being obstructive. They could refuse permission to export a lot of the weapon systems that Ukraine need, even in the (rare) instances where Europe is building those systems locally. We could keep them supplied with small arms, 155mm shells and maybe artillery pieces, but aircraft and missile defence would fall apart pretty quickly imo. I think there would be a lot of pressure to freeze the conflict along the current lines - and if the US is playing hardball, I think Ukraine would be unwise to fight too hard against it as they'd end up in a worse position if the US abandoned them entirely. It'd be pretty shitty for the Ukrainians but ultimately they'd have held onto a lot more of their country than anyone was expecting at the start of the war, so it's not like it's all been for nothing. Edited July 16 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 16 Moderator Share Posted July 16 4 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: if the US is being obstructive. They could refuse permission to export a lot of the weapon systems that Ukraine need, even in the (rare) instances where Europe is building those systems locally. We could keep them supplied with small arms, 155mm shells and maybe artillery pieces, but aircraft and missile defence would fall apart pretty quickly imo. It kind of depends. Anything containing ITAR or US export controlled parts could be stopped by the US administration - so you're right about aircraft (F-16s) and parts for those aircraft, right about American designed missile systems and (for example) systems or equipment containing military GPS chips (e.g. L2, not the civvy L1 chips), but there's still a lot of European kit that doesn't contain ITAR or US export controlled items., which could help Ukraine fight on. It would mean very significantly ramping up production of that stuff, though and so far, that's not something that's really happened. Because of lead times, and because the last lot of American supplied consumable kit (e.g. shells) will probably last till the end of the year at best, they'd (other western gov'ts) need to start placing orders now to take up the slack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 To be fair to europe, it’’s only been 10 years, they couldn’t be expected to be moving towards looking after their own actual defence in that sort of timescale. Or, they don’t really believe they are defending Ukraine to defend Europe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 1 hour ago, blandy said: It kind of depends. Anything containing ITAR or US export controlled parts could be stopped by the US administration - so you're right about aircraft (F-16s) and parts for those aircraft, right about American designed missile systems and (for example) systems or equipment containing military GPS chips (e.g. L2, not the civvy L1 chips), but there's still a lot of European kit that doesn't contain ITAR or US export controlled items., which could help Ukraine fight on. It would mean very significantly ramping up production of that stuff, though and so far, that's not something that's really happened. Because of lead times, and because the last lot of American supplied consumable kit (e.g. shells) will probably last till the end of the year at best, they'd (other western gov'ts) need to start placing orders now to take up the slack. Yeah, exactly - but I don’t think Europe can ramp production to the required levels even with 6 months of notice. Europe and the US have been ramping 155mm production for the past 18 months and collectively getting to the required levels is 3-4 year project. Can’t imagine Europe could do that for multiple weapon systems at the same time (all much more complex than 155mm) in only six months, especially with the German leadership being incredibly cautious and the French political class being in chaos right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Didn’t Trump also say last time he’d take the US out of NATO (and didn’t)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboy54 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 My take on it is that Putin is waiting for Trump to win the presidency. Trump will then start to disengage from supporting Ukraine. No way Europe has the money or ability to be able to step in, match and supply Ukraine with the amount of equipment that the US has been doing. Two things will happen 1. Ukraine will have to try and negotiate a ceasefire from a weak position Or 2. Putin will then go all in to try and complete the entire invasion of Ukraine which was his original intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) I still don't see how the US is going to turn down money if Ukraine wants to buy US stuff. But, that said, the US might score a massive own goal if they do this. It'll make German, French, Italian, Norwegian, British and Polish\Finnish equipment very viable, and allow Europe to disengage from the US even more. The production base and wealth is larger in Europe. There's absolutely no reason why we should be so reliant on the US if they're behaving like this. We've got the gear to replace US kit, we just need to be willing to produce it. South Korea is chomping at the bit with their capable and cheap K9, Golden Eagles and K2. Edited July 18 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Germany is halving their military spending in Ukraine in next year’s budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 18 Moderator Share Posted July 18 44 minutes ago, magnkarl said: But, that said, the US might score a massive own goal if they do this. It'll make German, French, Italian, Norwegian, British and Polish\Finnish equipment very viable, and allow Europe to disengage from the US even more. The production base and wealth is larger in Europe. There's absolutely no reason why we should be so reliant on the US if they're behaving like this. I’m not sure that’s completely coherent, though I could be wrong. In no particular order, I don’t think the production base is larger in Europe and in no small part this is because the US budget for defence is much larger and this brings economies of scale. The European base is more fragmented too. Next is the “allow Europe to disengage from the US” bit and the “There's absolutely no reason why we should be so reliant on the US if they're behaving like this” bit. They’re both the consequence and aim of the Trump outlook particularly and US generally and to an extent they’re right. Firstly Europe has relied on the US to be big brother protector with all the pros and cons that brings and secondly the US is looking towards China and wants and needs to focus in that area, rather than spending time, money and effort in Europe. China is the “threat” to the US dominance in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAL Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Trump wins the election pulls support for Ukraine Russia finishes off ukraine . Spends afew years rebuilding and goes after more countries . then either Putin feels brave and goes after some old soviet countris that are in nato and things kick off or poland gets worried and things kick off anyway. only hope is Russia is weakeaned enough currently that they accept a ceasefire on current lines and Ukraine can try and rebuild and fortify key areas . sadly I think putin will want odessa and kherson to give them a clear shot at moldova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I suspect if the US formally restricted their expenditure in Ukraine (I’m not convinced Trump would do that as it’s such good business for US suppliers, and the national economy) then it would probably come with pressure to agree a ceasefire along new borders with Russia formally keeping their occupied territory. The big question will be NATO, whilst Putin would be happy to keep what he has stolen he might refuse a ceasefire if Ukraine were allowed to join. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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