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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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8 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

 

The problem with this wizard scheme is the 'join NATO' part. There is a 0% chance that they will be offered NATO membership if doing so breaks a treaty with Russia. If NATO members wanted to risk nuclear war with Russia, we'd be fighting Russia across eastern Ukraine right now. We aren't doing that, and that's not by accident.

Did NATO not make overtures to Ukraine about an opportunity to join NATO - but not as a full member ?

(Genuine question) 

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20 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

You wait until he starts in big school and realises there are uni sex toilets. 

One of the things I wonder is at what age do these peoples kids realise that their parent is a **** moron? 

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It seems to me that no one thought about the long term of this in Kreml. Even if Russia does take Kiev and install a puppet government, the Ukranian people won't have it. If Russia is to control Ukraine they'll need an occupation force many times larger than the invasion force, it simply isn't feasible.

In Chechnya they have a puppet leader installed and use a lot of troops to keep him there. It's not going to work in Ukraine. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, we can fund insurrections for years on end..

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Media driving me a bit mad, i.e GMB. "Sanctions aren't working, while Boris Johnson does nothing the Ukranian people are dying". What do they want us to do, send the planes over an risk WW3. Cracks me up like they think they know everything about everything.

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1 minute ago, foreveryoung said:

Media driving me a bit mad, i.e GMB. "Sanctions aren't working, while Boris Johnson does nothing the Ukranian people are dying". What do they want us to do, send the planes over an risk WW3. Cracks me up like they think they know everything about everything.

It's a daunting prospect. I'd be more uncomfortable right now if the US/UK committed ground troops. But appeasing land grabbing dictators hasn't worked in the past.

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1 minute ago, foreveryoung said:

Media driving me a bit mad, i.e GMB. "Sanctions aren't working, while Boris Johnson does nothing the Ukranian people are dying". What do they want us to do, send the planes over an risk WW3. Cracks me up like they think they know everything about everything.

You can almost guarantee that they didn't know what swift was yesterday 

Same as everything in modern life if you can't see it or it's specifically detailed in an official announcement then it's either not happening or not working

Where the twitter accounts showing videos of the sanctions? 

 

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7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

It seems to me that no one thought about the long term of this in Kreml. Even if Russia does take Kiev and install a puppet government, the Ukranian people won't have it. If Russia is to control Ukraine they'll need an occupation force many times larger than the invasion force, it simply isn't feasible.

In Chechnya they have a puppet leader installed and use a lot of troops to keep him there. It's not going to work in Ukraine. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, we can fund insurrections for years on end..

Sorry but I think Putin has been planning this for around 8 years. The paralysis of the west demonstrates he has thought it through.

If he has to govern Ukraine by fear or a police state he will have factored that in.

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23 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

 

The problem with this wizard scheme is the 'join NATO' part. There is a 0% chance that they will be offered NATO membership if doing so breaks a treaty with Russia. If NATO members wanted to risk nuclear war with Russia, we'd be fighting Russia across eastern Ukraine right now. We aren't doing that, and that's not by accident.

Who cares about the treaty with russia when they have just broken promises and lies? Russia would not have attacked ukraine if it was in nato. They would have so many countries after them they would get wiped out.

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Just now, hippo said:

Sorry but I think Putin has been planning this for around 8 years. The paralysis of the west demonstrates he has thought it through.

If he has to govern Ukraine by fear or a police state he will have factored that in.

Russia does not have the cash and resources to hold Ukraine for long. They'll bankrupt themselves. In world terms they aren't an economical power, especially if the sanctions work. China won't be Russia's bank as China is dependent on exports too. It's not a scenario a second rate Russia can win.

In other news the Junta in Myanmar has sided with Russia. Who is a Junta again Putin?

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1 minute ago, hippo said:

Sorry but I think Putin has been planning this for around 8 years. The paralysis of the west demonstrates he has thought it through.

If he has to govern Ukraine by fear or a police state he will have factored that in.

For sure. Ukraine under his control, or bogged down in a war, is a Ukraine that won't be joining Nato. Getting on though isn't he, you wonder if a few years of ostracising his cronies will see them move

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6 minutes ago, hippo said:

Sorry but I think Putin has been planning this for around 8 years. The paralysis of the west demonstrates he has thought it through.

If he has to govern Ukraine by fear or a police state he will have factored that in.

The only person who really kept him honest on this was Merkel. When she left it was going to be open season 

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17 minutes ago, hippo said:

Did NATO not make overtures to Ukraine about an opportunity to join NATO - but not as a full member ?

(Genuine question) 

Sort of. Ukraine's current status is that of an aspiring member, on a list (along with Bosnia & Herzegovina and Georgia) of countries that want to join but are not ready to do so. The next stage is receiving what is called a 'MAP' (Membership Action Plan) which states the steps that need to be taken before membership, and some NATO members (mostly Eastern European, but also the UK & US) have been keen to give Ukraine a MAP as soon as possible.

You have to decide for yourself how likely this is, and whether it would be a good idea, but NATO also has a longstanding policy of not admitting countries with territorial disputes, and you can see that this does create an incentive for Russia to *create* territorial disputes to prevent their membership. For that reason (among others), I don't see a path for Ukraine receiving NATO membership in the short or medium term.

9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Who cares about the treaty with russia when they have just broken promises and lies? Russia would not have attacked ukraine if it was in nato. They would have so many countries after them they would get wiped out.

Any world leader who does not want to be responsible for a nuclear war that potentially threatens all life on the planet, which hopefully will be all of them for a very long time.

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17 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Russia does not have the cash and resources to hold Ukraine for long. They'll bankrupt themselves. In world terms they aren't an economical power, especially if the sanctions work. China won't be Russia's bank as China is dependent on exports too. It's not a scenario a second rate Russia can win.

In other news the Junta in Myanmar has sided with Russia. Who is a Junta again Putin?

They are the 11th biggest economy in the world.

And have stock piled dollars amongst other things. They supply 40% of Europe's gas.

Russia can hold its own for a good few years yet.

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