Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[trekka]

3 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

‘Chelsea away… Laaav it’

You forgot "you slaaaaaaags".

[Guest av1]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

Well in reality he isn’t a mercenary at all, he’s a hot dog vendor

Exactly, born for war, it’s in their DNA 

 

[sidcow]

57 minutes ago, av1 said:

How many forces have Russia got still stationed in Russia? 

It's hard to believe Putin wouldn't be recalling any reserve battalions in Ukraine. Ukraine needs to eye this up carefully then strike. If reinforcements can't be rushed into any breach because they're back in Moscow then they could literally overrun the Russian front. 

[bickster]

Just now, sidcow said:

It's hard to believe Putin wouldn't be recalling any reserve battalions in Ukraine. Ukraine needs to eye this up carefully then strike. If reinforcements can't be rushed into any breach because they're back in Moscow then they could literally overrun the Russian front. 

Well at one point the UK MOD estimated that 85% of Russia's total troop number were in Ukraine. The reserves not in the front line would have been in… the two oblasts that Wagner controls AND have been given a walkover by those Russian troops in the rear. We’ve also already seen how two battalions of Russian anti-Putin troops have literally had free reign in Belgorod oblast more than once recently. He really does have that much.

Even if he recalled troops from he front line, they’d be chased out by Ukraine and run into Wagner, what are they going to do? Join Wagner would be my guess

[Guest av1]

Having served in the British Army, I know that soldiers have a lot of respect for high ranking officers that get their hands dirty so to speak, so it wouldn’t suprise me if the hot dog seller had a lot of support within the regular Russian Army. 

[bickster]

Where else does he have troops he can recall? Well there's Belarus (and that’s why Luke has f***ed off at the first hint of trouble) Belarus will be free of him sooner rather than later.Occupied Georgia, yep that possibly going and Chechnya. What happens in Chechnya could be hilarious

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, av1 said:

Having served in the British Army, I know that soldiers have a lot of respect for high ranking officers that get their hands dirty so to speak, so it wouldn’t suprise me if the hot dog seller had a lot of support within the regular Russian Army. 

I think it’s an even simpler equation right now. Prigozhin at least seemed to care for his men, the Russians threatened to shoot them if they retreated

[Delphinho123]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Where else does he have troops he can recall? Well there's Belarus (and that’s why Luke has f***ed off at the first hint of trouble) Belarus will be free of him sooner rather than later.Occupied Georgia, yep that possibly going and Chechnya. What happens in Chechnya could be hilarious

You’re a man who seems to know more than most on the topic. Where will be in 7 days time, Bickster? Putin in hiding? Wagner destroyed? 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

You’re a man who seems to know more than most on the topic. Where will be in 7 days time, Bickster? Putin in hiding? Wagner destroyed? 

You really can’t put a timeline on this. It really depends where the numbers stack up. One thing is for sure, Prigozhin wouldn’t have done this if he didn’t have some sort of firmed up support from within the military, which has already been shown to be true.

I think regime change is almost inevitable but when is impossible to say. It might not even be Prigozhin that wins, there are other players that may not have shown their hand yet

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

I think it’s an even simpler equation right now. Prigozhin at least seemed to care for his men, the Russians threatened to shoot them if they retreated

I totally agree with this.

Another point to make is that for all the hate towards Prighozin, his troops love him. I would also think that he is not doing this alone and there will have been a collective decision internally within Wagner to do this. I would also bet externally he has a lot of support as well. You don't do stuff like this without serious consideration and planning because there is now no going back.

[trekka]

 

Hmmm.

[Delphinho123]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

You really can’t put a timeline on this. It really depends where the numbers stack up. One thing is for sure, Prigozhin wouldn’t have done this if he didn’t have some sort of firmed up support from within the military, which has already been shown to be true.

I think regime change is almost inevitable but when is impossible to say. It might not even be Prigozhin that wins, there are other players that may not have shown their hand yet

Is this the beginning of the end for the war? Or does that rumble on regardless? Not heard that much from Zelensky but do they go for Crimea now or use it as a bargaining chip for later discussions around ending the war? 

Just looking at this purely from the perspective of Ukraine and the war, this has to be a good thing right? I think whilst we’re all happy it’s happening, we don’t want some madman taking over and doubling down with nukes (highly unlikely as you’ve said before). 

[wishywashy]

If true, something something Tik Tok

[trekka]

Emergency COBRA meeting being called.  Things are afoot. 

[Delphinho123]

1 minute ago, trekka said:

Emergency COBRA meeting being called.  Things are afoot. 

Hope they can find time to discuss my mortgage. 

[trekka]

 

[Anthony]

I'd like to see the Ukrainians making a big push on their "I want to live" program, so that all the Russians in Ukraine surrender without a fight. 

Everybody wins. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Anthony
Spelling

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Delphinho123 said:

Is this the beginning of the end for the war? Or does that rumble on regardless? Not heard that much from Zelensky but do they go for Crimea now or use it as a bargaining chip for later discussions around ending the war? 

Just looking at this purely from the perspective of Ukraine and the war, this has to be a good thing right? I think whilst we’re all happy it’s happening, we don’t want some madman taking over and doubling down with nukes (highly unlikely as you’ve said before). 

I don’t see how the war continues in its present form.

The Russian lines are bound to collapse, there will be a power vacuum, you can’t quell a civil war at home and command an invasion where most of your troops are sandwiched between the two enemies

But it could easily get bloodier before it stops

[Delphinho123]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

I don’t see how the war continues in its present form.

The Russian lines are bound to collapse, there will be a power vacuum, you can’t quell a civil war at home and command an invasion where most of your troops are sandwiched between the two enemies

But it could easily get bloodier before it stops

If I’m a Russian soldier on the front line now with no desire to be there fighting Ukraine, you’d have to think now is the time to get out, flee, surrender, whatever. 

I imagine there are a fair few officers/commanders of platoons looking over their shoulders about now. If I’m there, I’m getting the lads together, shooting whoever’s in charge and disappearing pronto. 

[avfc1982am]

Clever.... as you said @bickster Russian forces in Ukraine will be in Wagner hands before pro Kremlin. Putin could lose a massive percentage of the army if Wagner can follow this through.