Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

Several accounts seem to be suggesting that UA will counter attack North of Bakhmut today or tomorrow, trying to wedge Wagner in, and making Bakhmut a total failure for Putin. UA have been amassing lots of vehicles, personell and artillery around Malynivka, and have 6 fighters pummeling the area day and night. There's been several days of 17-20 degrees plus and sunshine, so I guess they're hoping to rush in before Russia can dig in.

[villa89]

5 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Several accounts seem to be suggesting that UA will counter attack North of Bakhmut today or tomorrow, trying to wedge Wagner in, and making Bakhmut a total failure for Putin. UA have been amassing lots of vehicles, personell and artillery around Malynivka, and have 6 fighters pummeling the area day and night. There's been several days of 17-20 degrees plus and sunshine, so I guess they're hoping to rush in before Russia can dig in.

Wagner PMC will take the L for Bakhmut, they will suddenly be completely separate from the Russian army once they lose.  

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Wagner PMC will take the L for Bakhmut, they will suddenly be completely separate from the Russian army once they lose.  

It could be worse that that if Ukraine can manage to punch a hole right through Wagner. Russia will have to rapidly move in troops from other defence lines in a sustainable position, it could weaken a good chunk of that front. The blame game will then become much more severe for Wagner then.

[villa89]

15 minutes ago, bickster said:

 The blame game will then become much more severe for Wagner then.

The chef could be summoned to the nearest stairs.

[villakram]

Xi meeting Zelensky looking likely, after meeting Putin. 

Fingers crossed the bomb them for our freedom crowd will be disappointed by some peace proposals. 

 

 

 

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, villakram said:

Xi meeting Zelensky looking likely, after meeting Putin. 

Fingers crossed the bomb them for our freedom crowd will be disappointed by some peace proposals. 

 

 

 

“Putin says if you give up the east of the country, and Crimea, he’ll withdraw his troops, deal?

[Mic09]

13 minutes ago, Genie said:

“Putin says if you give up the east of the country, and Crimea, he’ll withdraw his troops, deal?

It's a hard situation isn't it.

I can assume a peace treaty is everyone's preferable option. People die. It's a priority to stop that happening through diplomacy, not gun fire. 

Just out of curiosity, what sort of a realistic proposal would you be happy with? It's unlikely Russia just gives up everything and Putin begs for forgiveness(ain't happening) and it's unlikely Ukraine wins back its territory. 

So a million dollar question, how do we end this? 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

It's a hard situation isn't it.

I can assume a peace treaty is everyone's preferable option. People die. It's a priority to stop that happening through diplomacy, not gun fire. 

Just out of curiosity, what sort of a realistic proposal would you be happy with? It's unlikely Russia just gives up everything and Putin begs for forgiveness(ain't happening) and it's unlikely Ukraine wins back its territory. 

So a million dollar question, how do we end this? 

Russia leaves Ukraine inc Crimea.

There is only Ukraine that can decide when they are happy for peace talks

And they have consistently stated that Russia must leave all Ukrainian territory 

[bickster]

34 minutes ago, villakram said:

Fingers crossed the bomb them for our freedom crowd will be disappointed by some peace proposals. 

 

You want Russia to win, nice

[chrisp65]

If Putin gains a metre of land, then he has won.

 

[Mic09]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Russia leaves Ukraine inc Crimea.

There is only Ukraine that can decide when they are happy for peace talks

And they have consistently stated that Russia must leave all Ukrainian territory 

Ok. Next in war diplomacy, Israelis and Palestinians just get on with each other.

I support what you are saying. But unfortunately it won't happen. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Russia leaves Ukraine inc Crimea.

There is only Ukraine that can decide when they are happy for peace talks

And they have consistently stated that Russia must leave all Ukrainian territory 

Agreed,  this is the only palatable end.
If Putin leaves the territory then there doesn't need to be peace talks.  It turns itself off as Ukraine will not chase them into Russia,  they just want them to **** off.

Putin has a big decision currently,  if Ukraine break through the front line in numbers then he position to negotiate is gone as what troops are left in the trenches will all get destroyed.
Or pull back and hope for a bit of luck and Russia break through somehow,  highly doubtful.
Or carry on as he is and hold the line until he runs out of troops or ammo,  which logically means Russia and its borders cannot be properly secure.
Or he as a desperate throw of the dice,  just take over Belarus.  They cannot actually stop Putin and he at least gains some ground to show for it.

 

 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Mic09 said:

Ok. Next in war diplomacy, Israelis and Palestinians just get on with each other.

I support what you are saying. But unfortunately it won't happen. 

The war won't end until the Ukrainians decide they are sick of their own losses or Russia leaves.

There are only two countries that can end it. Russia by leaving or Ukraine by giving in. Being as Russia wanted to wipe Ukraine off the map, Ukraine aren't anywhere near wanting to end it and it's highly doubtful they ever will be until Russia is off their territory 

[magnkarl]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

The war won't end until the Ukrainians decide they are sick of their own losses or Russia leaves.

There are only two countries that can end it. Russia by leaving or Ukraine by giving in. Being as Russia wanted to wipe Ukraine off the map, Ukraine aren't anywhere near wanting to end it and it's highly doubtful they ever will be until Russia is off their territory 

The French army is suggesting that UAF is now the most capable army in Europe. They aren't going to give in when they're on the cusp of another counter attack. 

Also, which leader in their sound mind would concede territory when it leads to Bucha?

[Genie]

A peace treaty will involve Ukraine giving up something.

They both need to sell it positively.

Could Ukraine spin giving up some of the land mine filled rubble as a fair price to end the fighting?

It’s hard to see any outcome apart from Russia overthrowing Putin from within.
Ideally Ukraine push all Russian troops out, and keep them out. Is that realistic?

Edited March 13, 2023 by Genie

[LondonLax]

I suspect Ukraine will wait to see how their spring offensive goes before agreeing to anything with China. 

Negotiations only happen when both sides feel like they can’t improve their situation on the battlefield.

Neither side is at that stage yet. 

[Mozzavfc]

The whole 'special military operation' was based around Russia protecting russian passport holders against Nazis. Putin can just come out, and say all the Nazis are gone, we did it, we saved the people from Nazis yet again, let's go home boys.

Where do I collect my Nobel peace prize from?

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

If Putin gains a metre of land, then he has won.

 

Sounds like a plan. 

Give him 1m along the border. Jobs a good'un

[sidcow]

13 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

The whole 'special military operation' was based around Russia protecting russian passport holders against Nazis. Putin can just come out, and say all the Nazis are gone, we did it, we saved the people from Nazis yet again, let's go home boys.

Where do I collect my Nobel peace prize from?

That MIGHT appease the people but those in power in Russia will know different and the army will know different. 

Not sure they'll allow Putin to continue on that basis. 

[avfc1982am]

14 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

The whole 'special military operation' was based around Russia protecting russian passport holders against Nazis. Putin can just come out, and say all the Nazis are gone, we did it, we saved the people from Nazis yet again, let's go home boys.

Where do I collect my Nobel peace prize from?

You've not really thought this out. 

"Nazi's in Ukraine". It's a narrative because Russian influence has capsized in Ukraine. They cannot pilfer and pillage under the cover of the Ukrainian government anymore. That's why the narratives are constructed to go to war. Putin was never killing a few Nazi's and pissing off back over the border with a job done and a wave.