hippo Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, bickster said: Before this started they had approx 280,000 ground troops. NATO estimates that 40,000 of those have already been neutralised (KIA, Injured or Captured). Then there's desertions. So without the desertions that's a huge chunk of Russia's front line capability already gone, especially when you take into account the ratio of 3 or 4 to 1 troops required in the supply lines to keep the front line troops supplied There are also reports that high level Belarusian military have been in contact with Ukraine to say if they are ordered across the border, they will surrender (could easily be propaganda I know) Putin is already calling in extra troops from all over Russia, which will leave him exposed and weakened in other areas of conflict (like Georgia for example) I don't see where the massive influx of troops required to "Win" this can possibly come from Surely Ukraine is taking losses too though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 minute ago, hippo said: Surely Ukraine is taking losses too though ? Obviously they are but they had approx 125,000 ground troops before the war, they called up reservists, they have also enlisted volunteer militia and approx 20k Foreign legion by now They also aren't losing troops at anywhere near the rate the Russians are. The NATO KIA estimates are 2-4K vs 7-15K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, NoelVilla said: Others here know better but I think I read in the start that they went in trying to kill Zelensky. Obvoiusly failed. I'd read about Chechen Death Squads also involved in numerous attempts on Zelensky. This is why he's constantly on the move and hard to track, intelligence will be helping from NATO (and the U.S) which hopefully keeps him one step ahead. Apparently someone (might be CIA) are there and ready to get him out within minutes if necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, hippo said: Surely Ukraine is taking losses too though ? Russia 'front line' capability: 200.000 (includes logistics, medics ++) Ukraine before war: 125.000 professionals, 220.000 reservists, 10-12 million men aged 18-60. Who do you think has issues backfilling? All of Ukraines recruitment pool is defending their own country and are within 6+- hours of their deployment area. Russia's army is defending the largest country on earth, and reservists can be as much as 6 time zones away. Edited March 24, 2022 by magnkarl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, bickster said: Further to the Russia Ship destroyed, it's actually 1 destroyed and two damaged. That is three of seven of the Black Sea Fleets large scale Landing capability Out of Action in one mission I'm astonished by the stupidity of the Russians. Why would you park a ship within 10km of a front line when you have safe harbour in Crimea and Russia? The arrogance is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 When talking about Russia's capacity you can't include anywhere near their total strength. NATO is building up forces on the eastern borders. These will necessitate Russia to mirror those forces with similar forces. You can bet that NATO are keeping those Russian airforce busy with flights close to the Russian border. All of these need to be met by Russian fighters showing strength. With Canada to the North, Europe to the West, USA to the East and USA based in Asia to the South, Russia is surrounded by NATO. Russia's airforce is vastly outnumbered and outgunned by NATO even if Russia can operate every single one of their planes. There is no way that Russia can commit vast numbers of planes in Ukraine. Their paranoia tells them that those planes will be need to beat off a NATO strike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 It runs in the family. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Starting a war to have a port for my ships and now having no ships even if I gain the port sounds so much like something I’d end up doing. Whilst it turns out you can’t get to Kiev in a tank in 4 hours, it also turns out ‘Russia has 10 days of money and logistics’ might also have been a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I'm astonished by the stupidity of the Russians. Why would you park a ship within 10km of a front line when you have safe harbour in Crimea and Russia? The arrogance is astounding. Russia are continuing to gamble on Ukraine not attacking them apart from in direct defence. Its a combination of arrogance and stupidity. Putin: Why won’t Ukraine just roll over? Do you know who we are? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Starting a war to have a port for my ships and now having no ships even if I gain the port sounds so much like something I’d end up doing. Whilst it turns out you can’t get to Kiev in a tank in 4 hours, it also turns out ‘Russia has 10 days of money and logistics’ might also have been a stretch. I'd say that they had less than 10 days of logistics. Their convoy ran out of logistics an hour after entering Ukraine.. From my experience a tank won't run full throttle for 4 hours without needing an extreme amount of fuel, suffering breakdowns etc. It was naive to think they would get there in 4 hours. Edited March 24, 2022 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) Russia made 2 mistakes. 1. Assuming the population of Ukraine would welcome (or at least tolerate) them. 2. Attempting to minimise damage to infrastructure and civilians. I can imagine that anyone reading point 2 above us hoping to reply with mentions of bombed hospitals etc. That's what they have resorted to AFTER their initial plan A failed. I honestly believe that Russia's plan was thus - 1. Roll into Ukraine mainly unopposed in East Ukraine. 2. Halt short of Kiev. 3. Agree to withdraw but keep the Crimea and Eastern borders towns of Ukraine. 4. Insist Ukraine becomes a demilitarised zone with Russian "Peace keepers". I still believe that Russia will win this "war". But the cost of doing so will make this a Pyrrhic victory. Edited March 24, 2022 by Mandy Lifeboats Speeling mishsteaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 (edited) Really interesting analysis by the New York times. Some good evidence which will likely also be used by the ICC. It also shows how badly planned this was by Russia. If ever there was a good time to have a HAM-radio in Ukraine, now appears to be it. "Better to be a deserter than fertilizer" Classic. Edited March 24, 2022 by magnkarl 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 51 minutes ago, bickster said: Further to the Russia Ship destroyed, it's actually 1 destroyed and two damaged. That is three of seven of the Black Sea Fleets large scale Landing capability Out of Action in one mission Incredible they just thought they could offload troops without clearing the dockyards instead just strolling up like a oligarch on his yacht. Absolutely crackers. You would also think a significant number of personnel have been killed looking at the video. Very damaging for the Russian fleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2022 Just now, avfc1982am said: Incredible they just thought they could offload troops without clearing the dockyards instead just strolling up like a oligarch on his yacht. Absolutely crackers. You would also think a significant number of personnel have been killed looking at the video. Very damaging for the Russian fleet. I believe the port is on the Russian side of the front line but within range of Ukraine missiles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2022 I do believe that is a machine gun that predates WW 1. The Pulemot Maxima PM M1910 first made in 1909 and last modified in 1945 It also appears to be sat in a trailer made by Ifor Williams and painted green 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 24, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, bickster said: I do believe that is a machine gun that predates WW 1. The Pulemot Maxima PM M1910 first made in 1909 and last modified in 1945 It also appears to be sat in a trailer made by Ifor Williams and painted green Ifor Williams. There is nowhere they cannot go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Is that Russian equipement,or Okrain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, bickster said: It also appears to be ... painted green You're "good with colours" I see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted March 24, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 hour ago, PussEKatt said: Is that Russian equipement,or Okrain ? Gotta be Russian cos of the Zs innit. Either that or the Blues hooligans are getting above their station. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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