blandy Posted March 22, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, PussEKatt said: How is it that if NATO declair a "No fly zone" Russia will look on it as an act of war Because to enforce it would mean 2 things - firstly NATO shooting down Russian aircraft who impinge upon that declared NFZ and secondly (in Russia's eyes) NATO unilaterally declaring that Russian planes can't fly over the airspace of a non-NATO country is over-reach. And because Russia would lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 And,what about what I said about "non military"targets ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 22, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, PussEKatt said: NATO cant/wont declair a state of war if Russia dont stop attacking "non military" targets ? NATO (or NATO members) are not under attack. NATO cannot declare a state of war. States (e.g. the US, or UK etc.) can, but NATO can't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, PussEKatt said: And,what about what I said about "non military"targets ? It’s wrong, but it’s not NATO’s fight (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 I understand what you are saying but I am sure that Putin is taking notes of NATOs reaction to all the things he is doing.I am sure that none of the things that NATO is doing/not doing has not ecsaped him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, blandy said: NATO (or NATO members) are not under attack. NATO cannot declare a state of war. States (e.g. the US, or UK etc.) can, but NATO can't. NATO could run the same playbook as in Yugoslavia in 1999 or Libya 2011 if they so wished. They have made a decision not to based on the threat of nuclear retaliation. Edited March 22, 2022 by LondonLax 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 22, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, LondonLax said: NATO could run the same playbook as in Yugoslavia in 1999 or Libya 2011 if they so wished. They have made a decision not to based on the threat of nuclear retaliation. UN resolutions allowed that, IIRC. Russia would veto any similar approach with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, blandy said: UN resolutions allowed that, IIRC. Russia would veto any similar approach with this one. Russia and China indicated they would veto Yugoslavia so NATO went in anyway without taking it to the UN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 3 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: It's a little bit different though isn't it? Putin has done this before, not only in Ukraine but in Georgia. He's never done it in a NATO or EU country. Does that mean he never would though? Don't get me wrong I don't think it's time for the people of poland to be putting down sandbags and digging bomb shelters but certainly it's something governments are currently wargaming and when you're putting percertange likelihood on a variety of scenarios that's certainly more likely than it was 12 months ago. Besides, there's also the possibility of miscalculation. It doesn't even need to be intentional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Russia and China indicated they would veto Yugoslavia so NATO went in anyway without taking it to the UN. Vigilante privilege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted March 22, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, PussEKatt said: What I dont understand is this. How is it that if NATO declair a "No fly zone" Russia will look on it as an act of war,but NATO cant/wont declair a state of war if Russia dont stop attacking "non military" targets ?! IMHO if NATO is showing that they are that scared of Russia then we might as well give Putin whatever he wants now and crawl back under the bed.I realise that what I have said could lead to a nuclear war....BUT what choice is Putin giving us ? Because if NATO declare a NFZ, then they will shoot down any Russian planes in Ukraine. To which, Russia will see as an act of war and then WW3 starts. Ukraine isn't part of NATO, so therefore NATO has no reason to act in this scenario other than trying to be decent. Instead, the West is trying to cripple Russia economically and provide weapons and supplies to Ukraine in hope they can fight this war themselves. Now if you ask me why the West directly supplying arms a to Ukraine and attempting to cripple their economy isn't seen as an act of war by Russia I really don't know the answer to that. I suspect it's due to Russia knowing they don't really have much hope in hell against NATO. But i'm just guessing. I'm unsure where all the lines are. Edited March 22, 2022 by PieFacE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Awol said: Russia’s primary problem in Ukraine is its concept of operations, attacking with insufficient forces on too many axis of advance and without following their own military doctrine. That was to try and mould a military campaign to fit unrealistic political objectives, and very different from how Russia would approach overrunning the Baltics, for example. Russia isn’t as good as many thought before the war, it’s not as bad as many are claiming now, and European militaries are in a much worse state than almost anyone here realises. Edit: link to a good podcast on the subject from Oxford Uni’s Changing Character of War Programme: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/changing-character-of-war/id657391499?i=1000551337005 I think this is a good episode, however I think it simplifies this question. a) Do you not think Poland\Romania\Estonia\Lithuania\Slovakia or any of the other countries that have been terrorised under previous Russian rule would end up with an enormous recruitment effort if they were ever to get to a war scenario where Russia invaded? b) Stretch Russia's lines of battle even further than they are now into say Romania or Slovakia, do you honestly believe that Russia could even mount a small scale offensive that far when you look at their cluster#¤% of a logistical system atm? Any step over the line by Russia would likely instantly lead to said border countries getting similar numbers of soldiers to what Ukraine has now, with better equipment, more capable air forces, patriot\aegis systems and special forces that are cream of the crop (Telemark Battallion, SAS, JW Grom, GSG 9, GIGN to name a few). That is before you consider the enormously one-sided navy positions between NATO-Europe and Russia's North Sea\Baltic Sea Fleets. (It'd take months to get the pacific fleet here). Russia isn't what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Russia isn't what it used to be. True, but as that episode spells out, neither is Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, blandy said: On the radar signature, it depends on the Radar - the signature of each (type of) platform is different, because they are different shapes and sizes. However the kind of resolution or discrimination of the Radar pinging it will determine whether it can discern between different shapes and sizes and so on. Basic ATC type primary radar just gets a return and that is (in normal life) tallied with the civil transponder mode S code and mode 3/A code and that allows individual aircraft and their characteristics, flight number and all the rest to be identified. Once you get into military aviation, a UAV (or manned aircraft) which wishes not to be tracked/identified can obviously turn off mode S (and mode 3/A) is it wishes (or it may not even be fitted with a transponder. NATO uses various military only transponder modes to do the IFF part of IFF/SSR and for example mode 5 (which is like an encrypted version + of civil mode S) allows NATO forces to get on with their thing, while not telling enemies or Flight Radar websites etc. who they are or what they are up to. A Russian or Ukrainian, non NATO UAV will not have a mk XII or SIFF transponder and so at most would only transpond a mode 3/A code with maybe mode S if it's operating benignly. If it's operating a recce or attack role, then it'll be dark, I'd imagine. ta P.S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 If this is true, some of Russia’s best units trying to encircle Kyiv have themselves been encircled. Whoever briefs Putin will be sweating bullets tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Awol said: If this is true, some of Russia’s best units trying to encircle Kyiv have themselves been encircled. Whoever briefs Putin will be sweating bullets tonight They're channeling the Finnish defense tactics from the Winter War. Incredible again if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 This war, like a lot of Russian hardware seems to be stuck in the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboy54 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Lots of great comments on here... Maybe Putin is just testing out NATO's responses and maybe trying to provoke NATO, he seems deluded enough and with a massive ego to think he will have been welcomed by Ukraine whilst straddling and posing topless on a tank driven down the main street in Kyiv with rose petals being thrown at him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sending-soviet-air-defense-systems-it-secretly-acquired-to-ukraine-11647878422?mod=Searchresults_pos10&page=1 Quote The Pentagon over the years has acquired Soviet equipment as part of a clandestine program, and now such weapons are going to Ukraine If you ever wondered why Russia doesn't have air dominance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 22, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 22, 2022 46 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: ta P.S I get paid for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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