blandy Posted March 2, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Awol said: we also need to be real about requiring natural gas for the foreseeable future. I hope and expect to see renewed investment into the North Sea and another, less ideological look at fracking in northern England. You can support the green agenda while understanding that it’s not happening on a blank geopolitical canvas (or indeed that actions in the UK alone will make a measurable difference to the climate over the time frame we’re looking at). The need for security (physical, energy, resource, and now cyber too) is going to become a fact of life again in a way it hasn’t been since the 1980s. There's at least 3 separate things here 1. Reliance on gas for the foreseeable future - yes, however that reliance can be and should be scaled down and be planned to be scaled down. 2. North Sea and fracking - I disagree with you here. As per 1. and climate change, fossil fuels are something that should become part of the past, not something we extend further into the future. There are alternatives which are not so harmful. Renewables are already the cheapest form of energy generation, as well as the cleanest - the push should be further in that direction rather than fracking and more drilling etc. 3. Security. Yep. Completely agree. The need, frankly, has never gone away despite Government behaviours as if it had. Whether Russia, China, or whoever else, there has always been a need to protect the UK and its people from malign actions. Part of that should include the rejection of the soft influence over us via the Oligarchs and money and so on which has way too much influence over our politics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, CVByrne said: I think like the partition of Korea which was a ceasefire and there has never been a treaty. I think that's how the split of Ukraine will be. I can imagine in the occupied territories there will be some resistance to the pro Russian rule. Then it'll be a different type of cold war though. As there is no ideology communist vs capitalist. There are no new battlegrounds like Korea, Cuba, Vietnam etc.. to have. It'll be Russia + it's dominated neighbours vs the Western World. In a word - Poland. Thats where I believe the hardware is being delivered to en route to Ukraine. Ukraine with Hardware from the west can hold its own (IMO) in a ground war/insurgency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 minute ago, HKP90 said: Understood, and I see your point, but the window in which we can prevent most of the world becoming uninhabitable is closing fast. IPPC just released a report to that effect. The words 'record breaking floods/wildfires/storms' are becoming commonplace now, and we've not seen 1 tenth of what is already locked in the pipeline. What's the point in us fighting each other over land that is going to be unliveable. Yep, it’s a slam dunk argument from a logical perspective. Unfortunately if other countries have higher priorities, be that continuing hydrocarbon intensive industrialisation (China and India), or more importantly using energy security as a weapon (Russia), the argument becomes more nuanced and must give a little in the face of facts on the ground. Hopefully between renewables and the new Small Modular Reactors from Rolls Royce, we’ll have a stable and reliable renewables mix in 20 years. Until we get there though, having secure supplies of gas that are within our control is really important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, blandy said: 3. Security. Yep. Completely agree. The need, frankly, has never gone away despite Government behaviours as if it had. Whether Russia, China, or whoever else, there has always been a need to protect the UK and its people from malign actions. Part of that should include the rejection of the soft influence over us via the Oligarchs and money and so on which has way too much influence over our politics. Once you have nukes you're secure. Ukraine never should have given up theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted March 2, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, villa89 said: Once you have nukes you're secure. Ukraine never should have given up theirs. Ukraine never had nukes. They had other people's nukes left on their territory that they had no control over or infrastructure to maintain. If America disappeared tomorrow, and their nukes were left behind, that wouldn't make Germany for example a nuclear power just because they had some US nukes within their borders. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: The average Barry and Sharon do too, but it didn't stop them voting to leave the EU and having a decade of Tory malfeasance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted March 2, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Don't agree, Barry and Sharon got screwed over with Russian disinformation and swathes of rubles funding some dodgy bastards who won a referendum, then power. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Russian cross country skiing national team bus this morning in Norway 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, sne said: Russian cross country skiing national team bus this morning in Norway Superb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Putin looking to put former president Viktor Janukovytj back on the throne in Ukraine according to reports. That'll go down great with the people no doubt. Sentenced for high treason only 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, sne said: Putin looking to put former president Viktor Janukovytj back on the throne in Ukraine according to reports. That'll go down great with the people no doubt. Sentenced for high treason only 3 years ago. A former ousted and convicted mass-murdering tyrant restored to power in a country which has an angry and now heavily armed population. Sounds like a somewhat short-term problem before someone takes matters into their own hands. Edited March 2, 2022 by Davkaus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 2, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, bcarpet said: While I fully agree we need to use alternative ways of heating our houses, we just aren't in a position currently to do it. We do not have the infrastructure to deal with installing and maintaining these heat pumps and other renewables on a massive national scale. We haven't invested enough in getting a work force trained in being able to install and maintain these. Can you imagine how many more people would need to be trained to be able to not only install renewable energy on all new builds, but to be able to retrofit to all our existing houses? I deal with a couple of very small contracts looking after these and its a right pain in the backside finding decent and reliable contractors who have the right skills. The heat pumps are also quite unreliable and so expensive to repair, so more investment is needed in the technology too. If we pushed it really hard from this point onwards, I'd imagine it would still take us 10 plus years to be capable. Yes, I'm not suggesting this happens next year, but we've got to push it on as quickly as we can and Government needs to put some proper investment in. I saw an inverview with Octopus Energy the other day. They've built a huge training facility where they reckon they can train 1,000 installers per year, and they think with the £5k grant that's on the way they can get heat pumps installed at the same price as gas boilers. We need more of these training facilities, we need the £5k grant to be expanded, we need tax breaks on Solar, we need planning to be eased for wind farms. I'm definitely going to look at Solar Panels for the good of the planet and I think they're going to be a valuable investment, I don't see utility bills ever returning to what they were now. I'm lucky, I can afford that. We have really shied away from it because they can only really go on the front of the house, but things are getting more important than aesthetics. Edited March 2, 2022 by sidcow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regular_john Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 4 hours ago, CVByrne said: Putin will want to encircle Kyiv, have captured southern Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine. When a ceasefire is agreed he will keep hold of that territory to be given to Pro Russian sepratists which ill include Transnistria. So Ukraine will be split in two Not sure I'm convinced. There is essentially zero chance that the residents of occupied territories would tolerate Russian oppressors. There would either be constant rebellion, uprising, guerilla warfare etc or the Russians will have to completely subjugate the population through tyrrany, which will likely require mass executions, concentration camps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: Germany already had nuclear power, they made a decision to get out of nuclear after the Fukushima disaster. From the 17 plants they had I think there are three left and those will shut down this year. They are not going to build new plants. They will then be dependent on foreign oil and gas for a long long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted March 2, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2022 Check out Lebedev's 2016 summer party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, hippo said: In a word - Poland. Thats where I believe the hardware is being delivered to en route to Ukraine. Ukraine with Hardware from the west can hold its own (IMO) in a ground war/insurgency There won't be a cold war type war about poland. There were full scale wars in Korea and Vietnam about Communist vs Capitalist and many ones in South America etc.. Poland is part of the EU and Nato. There can't be a war there without WW3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, romavillan said: Check out Lebedev's 2016 summer party... Hopefully he goes the same way as the original one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CVByrne said: There won't be a cold war type war about poland. There were full scale wars in Korea and Vietnam about Communist vs Capitalist and many ones in South America etc.. Poland is part of the EU and Nato. There can't be a war there without WW3 Sorry yes I agree - I just think Poland might be the tipping point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, sne said: Putin looking to put former president Viktor Janukovytj back on the throne in Ukraine according to reports. That'll go down great with the people no doubt. Sentenced for high treason only 3 years ago. That was obviously part of the plan from the beginning in relation to who would be his puppet government. I still think it's unlikely to be over the whole of Ukraine as the Wester part will keep fighting an insurgency. So it might be over part of the annex Ukraine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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