Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[OutByEaster?]

What we don't want is the Russians changing to a tactic that we know is effective. At the moment they seem to be trying to keep civilian casualties at a reasonably low level - that will change pretty quickly if they decide to adopt something more akin to "shock and awe".

If what they're doing isn't working, what we really don't want is them just deciding to bomb Kyiv back to the stone age.

There's a danger in the successes of this resistance.

 

 

[Davkaus]

21 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

He might, but it would result in an all out state of war against Russia from nearly every super power in the world. We’d be at nuclear war if this happened. 

I don’t know how this ends. 

Would it? I think Russia could nuke Ukraine and the west would still sit on their hands because it's not a NATO country, and we don't want to provoke that nice man Vladmir. 

I think we're looking to avoid conflict with Russia  at any cost to Ukraine. If they stop at the NATO border, we won't react.

[hippo]

2 hours ago, DCJonah said:

From the documentary I watched on them a few years back it did seem to be. I've no doubt they're incredibly talented and clever with what they do, but they've made these videos before. Have they ever really accomplished something major? 

 

Well my slow cooker went kaput this morning ? 

[sidcow]

4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ramzan Kadyrov (notorious Chechen strongman) weighing in on Telegram (link in the tweet):

Russia does seem to have shown some restraint so far, by e.g. not shelling cities into rubble, and instead attacking with in many cases quite lightly armed units which have then taken a battering. This is lovely for supporters of Ukraine of course, but the problem is Russia is presumably going to have to make decision between either 'we've made our point' or 'we're really in this to win this' and presuming it's the latter, the next phase might involve levelling cities and many times more civilian casualties.

Thing is Chechnya was a country of 17,300 km2 with a 1.4m population. Ukraine is a country of 603,628 km2 with a 45m population. It's going to be impossible to flatten it.  Maybe one or 2 cities but it would take years and staggering amounts of missiles and manpower to even make a dent...... Unless they nuke of course. 

[magnkarl]

5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ramzan Kadyrov (notorious Chechen strongman) weighing in on Telegram (link in the tweet):

Russia does seem to have shown some restraint so far, by e.g. not shelling cities into rubble, and instead attacking with in many cases quite lightly armed units which have then taken a battering. This is lovely for supporters of Ukraine of course, but the problem is Russia is presumably going to have to make decision between either 'we've made our point' or 'we're really in this to win this' and presuming it's the latter, the next phase might involve levelling cities and many times more civilian casualties.

Some fair points here, but if the intel is true that Russia is struggling with supply lines, it won’t be that easy to mass assemble artillery when Ukraine has all the intel of USA and NATO. If you look at the US surveillance drones they’re hovering over the Black Sea and probably have been the reason why Ukraine has hit so many transport convoys.

[sidcow]

2 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Would it? I think Russia could nuke Ukraine and the west would still sit on their hands because it's not a NATO country, and we don't want to provoke that nice man Vladmir. 

I think we're looking to avoid conflict with Russia  at any cost to Ukraine. If they stop at the NATO border, we won't react.

You keep on at this but it's an absolute fact that direct war with Russia would literally mean the end of the world and the death of all of us. Is that what you actually want? 

The Russian people are not for this war but Nato actively invades and Putin will end up with a unified country. 

[Davkaus]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

You keep on at this but it's an absolute fact that direct war with Russia would literally mean the end of the world and the death of all of us. Is that what you actually want? 

The Russian people are not for this war but Nato actively invades and Putin will end up with a unified country. 

I'm not saying we should trigger WW3, no, I'm just disputing that we'd respond in kind if Russia flattens Ukraine. 

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Thing is Chechnya was a country of 17,300 km2 with a 1.4m population. Ukraine is a country of 603,628 km2 with a 45m population. It's going to be impossible to flatten it.  Maybe one or 2 cities but it would take years and staggering amounts of missiles and manpower to even make a dent...... Unless they nuke of course. 

I suppose it depends what their target is doesn't it. If the ambition is now, or becomes, simply to inflict the maximum damage on Ukraine, then flattening two or three key cities like Kyiv and Odessa would 'achieve' a lot toward that goal. Presumably the initial goal wasn't that, but was to 'rule the ruins' in some way (probably through a puppet government), and in that case destroying the capital is very likely to be counter-productive.

4 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Some fair points here, but if the intel is true that Russia is struggling with supply lines, it won’t be that easy to mass assemble artillery when Ukraine has all the intel of USA and NATO. If you look at the US surveillance drones they’re hovering over the Black Sea and probably have been the reason why Ukraine has hit so many transport convoys.

Everything that is happening now is happening in an environment where air space is still contested with both sides fighting hard in that arena. If (and if this goes on long enough, when) the Ukrainian air force is destroyed, it will get easier to conduct devastating attacks on cities if that's what they actually want to do.

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

I suppose it depends what their target is doesn't it. If the ambition is now, or becomes, simply to inflict the maximum damage on Ukraine, then flattening two or three key cities like Kyiv and Odessa would 'achieve' a lot toward that goal. Presumably the initial goal wasn't that, but was to 'rule the ruins' in some way (probably through a puppet government), and in that case destroying the capital is very likely to be counter-productive.

Everything that is happening now is happening in an environment where air space is still contested with both sides fighting hard in that arena. If (and if this goes on long enough, when) the Ukrainian air force is destroyed, it will get easier to conduct devastating attacks on cities if that's what they actually want to do.

If the intel posted on here about Russias fiscal ability to fight is 10 days, then surely the inflated numbers of Russian fighters would have swamped the small Ukrainian Air Force by now. Something is not right with Russias tactics, either they lack parts for the airforce or Ukraine has much better aa than what we’ve thought.

[HanoiVillan]

Further to the 'evidence they're trying to avoid civilian casualties where possible' thesis, you're starting to see videos like this cropping up:

Brave people! Full respect. But presumably at some point the Russians are going to start getting tired of turning round every time people form a line across the road.

[tonyh29]

News earlier had some military expert who said Russia had “only” committed about half of the 200,000 troops that were amassed along the various borders … more worryingly was some of the hardware , tanks that can fire the biggest military shell , around 100 kg  but also capable of firing a small tactical nuke and some roscoes launcher that they said  causes a 600m long wall of fire !! Obviously these weapons don’t smack of a humanitarian mission to rescue people in Kiev so hopefully won’t get used , but if it continues going badly I wonder if he will adopt a scorched earth policy ?

Edited February 27, 2022 by tonyh29

[Davkaus]

8 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Brave people! Full respect. But presumably at some point the Russians are going to start getting tired of turning round every time people form a line across the road.

I guess it depends how willing the Russian soldiers are to be fully complicit in Putin's war crimes. The worse the war goes, the weaker Putin looks, and as well as, you know, basic human decency, they're probably a lot less likely to commit atrocities on the orders of a president who's losing.

As we've seen, a lot of these soldiers don't even know why they're there, hopefully they prove far from willing to slaughter civilians that aren't posing a threat.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Davkaus

[TheAuthority]

9 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

If the intel posted on here about Russias fiscal ability to fight is 10 days, then surely the inflated numbers of Russian fighters would have swamped the small Ukrainian Air Force by now. Something is not right with Russias tactics, either they lack parts for the airforce or Ukraine has much better aa than what we’ve thought.

Reports that a percentage of the assessed 200,000 Russian army are untrained conscripts. Young men who don't know where they are or why they are there. 

[Genie]

13 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Further to the 'evidence they're trying to avoid civilian casualties where possible' thesis, you're starting to see videos like this cropping up:

Brave people! Full respect. But presumably at some point the Russians are going to start getting tired of turning round every time people form a line across the road.

Is the order from the top to protect civilian casualties, or are the Russian soldiers unwilling to kill or hurt them where possible?
It’s an interesting dynamic.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Genie

[desensitized43]

24 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You keep on at this but it's an absolute fact that direct war with Russia would literally mean the end of the world and the death of all of us. Is that what you actually want? 

The Russian people are not for this war but Nato actively invades and Putin will end up with a unified country. 

How much should the west let him get away with then?

At some point a line must be drawn. It might not be Ukraine and we should do all we can short of war to prevent one but we have to respect the Russians. Constant talk of the doom of us all sounds a bit more like fear of them.

[Mister_a]

56 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

Yeah, it's that absolutely massive thing they built decades ago. I assume it was just sitting around at an airport. Don't think it has been in active use for anything for a long time.

The anotonov had been over brum recently, I got some photos of it. Real shame it's been destroyed, was an awesome looking thing

Edited February 27, 2022 by Mister_a

[Genie]

1 minute ago, desensitized43 said:

How much should the west let him get away with then?

It’s what happens after Ukraine.

Is this a local war for Putins own vanity reason? Or is it the start of a campaign to take Eastern and Northern Europe?

If you assume Russia will take Ukraine eventually, then after that we’ll know we’re dealing with. Does he move his troops to the West and start making demands again? If so that’s the point the western world can’t watch it play out imo.

[HanoiVillan]

15 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I guess it depends how willing the Russian soldiers are to be fully complicit in Putin's war crimes. The worse the war goes, the weaker Putin looks, and as well as, you know, basic human decency, they're probably a lot less likely to commit atrocities on the orders of a president who's losing.

As we've seen, a lot of these soldiers don't even know why they're there, hopefully they prove far from willing to slaughter civilians that aren't posing a threat.

That's what we all hope, for sure. It's a big thing for a soldier to disobey orders though.

Time will tell I guess.

[Chindie]

Brave fellas.

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, desensitized43 said:

How much should the west let him get away with then?

At some point a line must be drawn. It might not be Ukraine and we should do all we can short of war to prevent one but we have to respect the Russians. Constant talk of the doom of us all sounds a bit more like fear of them.

Yes, yes I do fear the worlds largest stockpile of Nuclear weapons in the hands of a megalomaniac. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by sidcow