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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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56 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Very worrying that he is already starting to bring out the ‘nuclear deterrence card’ 

 

Prima Facie evidence that the sanctions ARE in fact a problem for him? 

Many said he'd built up massive reserves and wouldn't be bothered about sanctions.  Those words suggest otherwise. 

Edited by sidcow
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22 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Very worrying that he is already starting to bring out the ‘nuclear deterrence card’ 

It could mean several things, but two are most likely (imo):

1) best case: Western weapons + Ukrainian soldiers is proving a potent combo and he wants to discourage the delivery of more (but that’s posturing because he isn’t going to start a nuclear war over that)

2) worst case: he’s considering the Grozny solution to taking Ukrainian cities, which would dramatically ramp up pressure to intervene directly from western publics. Kyiv is approx 3 million people. If 1/5 of them intend to fight then the urban battle could  chew up the entire Russian force, unless he rubble’s the city first - causing tens of thousands of civilian casualties. 

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4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Prima Facie evidence that the sanctions ARE in fact a problem for him? 

Many said he'd built us massive reserves and wouldn't be bothered about sanctions.  Those words suggest otherwise. 

Maybe he blew all the reserves on some ape NFTs or something.

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57 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Yeah, pretty much every "expert" I've seen interviewed suggests the Russian advance is definitely not going to plan, that The Ukrainians are putting up a much better fight than expected but ultimately that Kyiv will inevitably fall but its going to be bloody. 

You do wonder if they're better off ceding Kyiv to protect the population and buildings and head for the forests and hills now. 

Holding the capital is the only way to keep this de-escalated imo. You concede the capital and then things will get severe. Civilians will start descending on Ukraine to assist forces, potentially forcing military intervention from outside the Country. It's all great when everyone comes together but there is, as bad as it sounds, a political game to be played here. Once foreign civilians start dying that game gets harder to play on both sides.

I think assisting with weapons, support worldwide, sanctions and whatever the world can throw at Russia economically is the way forward at the moment. If Putin can't take Kyiv he's done and will at some point have to back off or Russia will suffer one way or another and then we'll see how much Russians truly love their leader. The longer this goes on the less power Putin will have whether from threats inside his government or outside. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I like the idea behind anonymous, but I seriously doubt they'd cause even a minor inconvenience to Putin and Russia.

I think you’d be surprised. I can see them crippling the Russian online network and systems. I also suspect a lot of Anonymous reside in Russia. I really wouldn’t under estimate them. 

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1 minute ago, DCJonah said:

I like the idea behind anonymous, but I seriously doubt they'd cause even a minor inconvenience to Putin and Russia.

Who do you really think they are? I highly doubt it a couple of nerds sitting in an apartment free from government eyes. My guess is they are  set up by the US intelligence to do whatever they like.....anonymously of course.

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54 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

The only end games I see are the removal of Putin, one way or another.

Totally agree,  he can't go forward and he can't go back either.

The request for mercenary personnel from Europe is interesting. 

I wonder if they will arrive armed at the border.  

 

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5 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Who do you really think they are? I highly doubt it a couple of nerds sitting in an apartment free from government eyes. My guess is they are  set up by the US intelligence to do whatever they like.....anonymously of course.

From the documentary I watched on them a few years back it did seem to be. I've no doubt they're incredibly talented and clever with what they do, but they've made these videos before. Have they ever really accomplished something major? 

 

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8 minutes ago, Ingram85 said:

I think you’d be surprised. I can see them crippling the Russian online network and systems. I also suspect a lot of Anonymous reside in Russia. I really wouldn’t under estimate them. 

It would be awesome if they did. Like I said, I like the idea behind it. 

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2 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Ukraine and Russia set to negotiate on the Ukrainian border later today. No concessions given by Ukr before going in, so I guess Putin is feeling the pressure.

Perhaps they can give Crimea back and call it a draw.

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24 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I like the idea behind anonymous, but I seriously doubt they'd cause even a minor inconvenience to Putin and Russia.

All there government websites are down and there is the Ukrainian national anthem on Russian news TV. I think you seriously under estimate them. They have caused serious problems previous to this war.

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20 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

From the documentary I watched on them a few years back it did seem to be. I've no doubt they're incredibly talented and clever with what they do, but they've made these videos before. Have they ever really accomplished something major? 

 

How’s turning Russian state tv into an educational programme on Russian aggression in Ukraine for you?

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10 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

How’s turning Russian state tv into an educational programme on Russian aggression in Ukraine for you?

I like it a lot. I'm not sure it's going to majorly impact things though. 

I'm not against them, I keep saying I really like the idea behind it. I just think it's a bit of an overreaction to think they're going to have an impact on the war. 

I hope they do though. 

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