Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bannedfromHandV]

24 minutes ago, trekka said:

Well he could be onto an O or S.  

 

Fake news…..countdown never had numbers included……

[tonyh29]

 

1 hour ago, Lichfield Dean said:

So, what do we think?

1. There's a lot of made-up stuff on the internet and none of it is true. But it still made headlines and was bad for Russia 

2. It's all true, and the Russians managed to fail to totally take out the border guards with sea and air strikes on a tiny little island, which makes the Russians look pretty incompetent.

3. The whole thing was a masterful piece of wartime theatre planned and staged by Ukraine somehow, knowing that it would be awful press for Russia.

Or something else?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

The original video Twitter link on Friday ,  if you scrolled down through the comments section , someone had posted that they had surrendered and were still alive … 

likewise the story of 56 tanks , a bit more reading seems to suggest / confirm  it was actually fuel trucks that were destroyed not tanks , which could also tie in with why a lot of Russian tanks appear to be out of fuel 

It would suggest the answer is a little bit of 1 mixed with a bit of 2 and a sprinkle of 3

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by tonyh29

[Awol]

7 minutes ago, sidcow said:

He's a visionary all right

 

 

In fairness, he can only repeat what he’s told by MoD, and MoD design strategy and operating concepts to fit Treasury approved budgets, not likely threat scenarios.  That’s how you end up with ludicrous statements about heavy armour being obsolete, while the army conducts dynamic manoeuvre in the cyber domain. It’s total c**k. 

 

[trekka]

Ukrainian forces have regained control of the key city of Kharkiv, the regional governor has said.

In a post on Telegram, Oleh Synyehubov said: "Control over Kharkiv is completely ours!"

BBC

Слава Україні! Героям слава! Slava Ukraini!

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

In fairness, he can only repeat what he’s told by MoD, and MoD design strategy and operating concepts to fit Treasury approved budgets, not likely threat scenarios.  That’s how you end up with ludicrous statements about heavy armour being obsolete, while the army conducts dynamic manoeuvre in the cyber domain. It’s total c**k. 

Was gonna post similar. The difference though is that all the cyber and advanced tech stuff is also necessary. It’s not a case of either/ or. The malign intent from other states and entities via cyber is absolutely real. Defensive and counter measures etc is an area that needs to be improved. It’s just that it should not be at the expense of more traditional defence and armed forces.

[Panto_Villan]

41 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

 

The original video Twitter link on Friday ,  if you scrolled down through the comments section , someone had posted that they had surrendered and were still alive … 

likewise the story of 56 tanks , a bit more reading seems to suggest / confirm  it was actually fuel trucks that were destroyed not tanks , which could also tie in with why a lot of Russian tanks appear to be out of fuel 

It would suggest the answer is a little bit of 1 mixed with a bit of 2 and a sprinkle of 3

There’s a mix of genuine stuff, accidental propaganda and total shite out there.

Some of the “propaganda” is totally true. The old lady with the sunflower seeds is just a great moment they were lucky to catch on camera. Zelensky not fleeing Kiev is legit bravery and must be great for morale.

Some of the stuff is likely incorrect due to the fog of war. The Snake Island guys told a warship to eff off and then the Ukrainians lost contact with them, so I don’t think it was unreasonable to assume they were killed even if they actually surrendered.

Other stuff likely has a grain of truth to it but needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. The Ukrainians are likely overstating the casualties they have inflicted on the Russians, and the Russians are likely underestimating how many they have taken, etc.

And then there’s stuff that seems to have no basis in fact whatsoever, and exists purely to let people confirm existing biases. Ghost of Kiev. The story about all the Chechen tanks and their general being killed. Quite possibly the story about the guy sacrificing himself to blow up the bridge.

There’s a narrative developing that the Ukrainians have got this in the bag, but none of the serious defence analysts I’ve been following seem to be on board with that. However most of them have noted that the Russians seem to be sticking with tactics that aren’t working particularly well so far, which doesn’t bode well for them if it continues.

[sidcow]

4 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

There’s a mix of genuine stuff, accidental propaganda and total shite out there.

Some of the “propaganda” is totally true. The old lady with the sunflower seeds is just a great moment they were lucky to catch on camera. Zelensky not fleeing Kiev is legit bravery and must be great for morale.

Some of the stuff is likely incorrect due to the fog of war. The Snake Island guys told a warship to eff off and then the Ukrainians lost contact with them, so I don’t think it was unreasonable to assume they were killed even if they actually surrendered.

Other stuff likely has a grain of truth to it but needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. The Ukrainians are likely overstating the casualties they have inflicted on the Russians, and the Russians are likely underestimating how many they have taken, etc.

And then there’s stuff that seems to have no basis in fact whatsoever, and exists purely to let people confirm existing biases. Ghost of Kiev. The story about all the Chechen tanks and their general being killed. Quite possibly the story about the guy sacrificing himself to blow up the bridge.

There’s a narrative developing that the Ukrainians have got this in the bag, but none of the serious defence analysts I’ve been following seem to be on board with that. However most of them have noted that the Russians seem to be sticking with tactics that aren’t working particularly well so far, which doesn’t bode well for them if it continues.

Yeah, pretty much every "expert" I've seen interviewed suggests the Russian advance is definitely not going to plan, that The Ukrainians are putting up a much better fight than expected but ultimately that Kyiv will inevitably fall but its going to be bloody. 

You do wonder if they're better off ceding Kyiv to protect the population and buildings and head for the forests and hills now. 

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Yeah, pretty much every "expert" I've seen interviewed suggests the Russian advance is definitely not going to plan, that The Ukrainians are putting up a much better fight than expected but ultimately that Kyiv will inevitably fall but its going to be bloody. 

You do wonder if they're better off ceding Kyiv to protect the population and buildings and head for the forests and hills now. 

I’m as far removed from a war expert as possible, but abandoning streets, bunkers, the subway and underground car parks, for the hills, in March, doesn’t sound like a great plan.

[chrisp65]

Liz Truss, more emotion about cheese exports than refugees fleeing bombs.

[tonyh29]

Massive anti war protest in Berlin , biggest one I’ve seen so far … might encourage the German govt to do even more 

[OutByEaster?]

The Ukraine government was a political smudge together of some peculiar groups, including the neo-Nazi right that had friends across the pond and Putin seems so concerned about. One of the people who would have liked a government a bit less infused with that type of nutter was President Zelenskyy - but sadly he didn't quite have the clout at the ballot box to form a government completely of his own choosing.

He does now. 

The Russian's have made Zelenskyy a national hero, a symbol of the people and the most popular leader in Europe. If he got the chance to have an election tomorrow, he'd romp it - he'd be able to clear out some of the less palatable and extreme elements of Ukraine's political structure and form a moderate, independent government that he could use to push an independent Ukraine forward.

So, if Putin's aim was to drive out the neo-Nazis from Ukraine's politics, that's job done isn't it comrade? 

Good work, now off you f***.

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Very worrying that he is already starting to bring out the ‘nuclear deterrence card’ 

 

[chrisp65]

Yes worrying.

But weirdly it makes it easier because there are two alternatives, apologise and back off, or stare him down.

 

Anybody ready to apologise?

[Davkaus]

The only end games I see are the removal of Putin, one way or another.

[magnkarl]

I do hope they’ve knocked out a few BUKs. A frighteningly good AA system.

[tonyh29]

Just now, Davkaus said:

The only end games I see are the removal of Putin, one way or another.

Was writing something similar 

surely someone in the chain of command in Russia is ready to stop this madness ?

[foreveryoung]

"Russian president Putin has ordered military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on 'high alert' after statement by Nato countries. 

Might not have to worry about the future of Gerrard, or anything for that matter.

In all seriousness, I very doubt he would ever be in a position to press the button anymore.

[trekka]

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

Was writing something similar 

surely someone in the chain of command in Russia is ready to stop this madness ?

He is a complete loon who only wants ever increasing power.  Most leaders would sit alongside their most trusted advisors.  Not Putin, he makes them all sit across the other side of the room whilst he lectures them during his rants. 

 

[sidcow]

11 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

The only end games I see are the removal of Putin, one way or another.

It could be that special orders there might make the military leaders get very nervous. If they're not happy with him already then see nuclear armageddon on the horizon it might push them over the edge with Putin. 

[sidcow]

10 minutes ago, trekka said:

He is a complete loon who only wants ever increasing power.  Most leaders would sit alongside their most trusted advisors.  Not Putin, he makes them all sit across the other side of the room whilst he lectures them during his rants. 

 

Someone is going to crack eventually.