Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

 

[magnkarl]

Great defense there Göbbels.

How are those 5 villas in Italy Vladimir?

Edited June 10 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[sidcow]

So it seems Ukraine are getting a loan of USD 50bn for their war effort to be paid for from the income of the frozen assets of Russsia.  

Seems sensible.  Should keep them in ammo and shells for some time I would think?

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Ruble well and truly collapsing 

Putler wants a ceasefire 

good luck with that

 

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Ruble well and truly collapsing 

Putler wants a ceasefire 

good luck with that

 

Very interesting development, right off the back of Ukraine securing $50b of funding (paid for by Russia) and the US signing a 10 year security pact with Ukraine.

Putin seems to be buckling. His demands are ridiculous. No way Ukraine agrees to give up the invaded regions AND to not join NATO. Putin obviously knows this, and knows that the first offer is never accepted.

Its also interesting this has come direct from Putin, not some background general where it could be denied later.

Edited June 14 by Genie

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Very interesting development, right off the back of Ukraine securing $50b of funding (paid for by Russia) and the US signing a 10 year security pact with Ukraine.

Putin seems to be buckling. His demands are ridiculous. No way Ukraine agrees to give up the invaded regions AND to not join NATO. Putin obviously knows this, and knows that the first offer is never accepted.

Its also interesting this has come direct from Putin, not some background general where it could be denied later.

Question is what will be the absolute non negotiable? Might he cede some lands back.  I've a suspicion NATO membership will be the absolute no go.  And the one Ukraine will absolutely not accept either because everyone knows Russia will be back for more in the future if they can't join NATO. 

[villa89]

3 hours ago, Genie said:

Putin seems to be buckling. His demands are ridiculous. 

He's at a stage where a pause suits him. He can get a ceasefire, tool up, undermine any attempts to rebuild in Ukraine and go again in five years time. 

Again it's a joke it's taken this long to impose these new sanctions. More weakness from the western countries. 

[Anthony]

There is no middle ground where the two sides can meet. None. And he knows this.

[Panto_Villan]

Unfortunately the rouble hasn't really collapsed, or come anywhere close to it. There's some warning lights flashing on the Russian economy but there's nothing catastophic on the horizon yet. Same with their army; they're still burning through their reserves of tanks and artillery and BMPs but there's not likely to be any major shortages until next year at the earliest.

As for the peace negotiations, obviously what Putin put forward is a complete non-starter, but honestly I think Ukraine's priority is to retain as much of their territory as possible. Being in NATO is probably secondary. Even if they weren't in NATO, I very much doubt Putin would be able to attack Ukraine again in the future - it's not like Ukraine would just forget about Russia after a peace treaty, is it? They'd probably have a very well fortified border, lots of reservists, and the West would continue to provide them with decent equipment. I think a second invasion would likely be much less successful than the first.

I think Putin would probably just invade somewhere like Georgia or Khazakstan in future, as those would be much easier targets.

[magnkarl]

South Africa showing their consistent line. Won't get behind a declaration saying Russia needs to stop abducting children in Ukraine, but will go after anyone not in BRICS for anything.

A moral high castle. South Africa couldn't see the woods for the trees. 

Russia has now lost more T-62s in Ukraine than in Afghanistan.

Edited June 16 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

 

[one_ian_taylor]

59 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

 

You have to laugh at "We're not trying to deprive them of sovereignty, even though they don't  have it as such"

[Genie]

Putin visiting North Korea tomorrow. 

Feels like things happening in this conflict now.

Ukraine get lots of funding and a security pact with the US.

Putin talks about peace, rejected.

Now Putin visits North Korea

Desperation or something big about to kick off?

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

Putin visiting North Korea tomorrow. 

Feels like things happening in this conflict now.

Ukraine get lots of funding and a security pact with the US.

Putin talks about peace, rejected.

Now Putin visits North Korea

Desperation or something big about to kick off?

Nothing big is about to kick off. That he is going to N Korea is rather a sign of the opposite. He even sent his flunkey to China the other year. His paranoia levels have been up so that he’s going outside Russia represents a bit of a change in recent policy

[magnkarl]

9 hours ago, Genie said:

Putin visiting North Korea tomorrow. 

Feels like things happening in this conflict now.

Ukraine get lots of funding and a security pact with the US.

Putin talks about peace, rejected.

Now Putin visits North Korea

Desperation or something big about to kick off?

North Korea is one of the only places Russians who want to go on holiday to Europe now go, as well as Turkey. North Korea has also sent loads of badly produced missiles and ammunition to Russia in exchange for satellite tech. 

It's nothing more than a show of face as a thank you. Two illegitimate dictators using the each other for their aims.

[tinker]

On 14/06/2024 at 22:09, Panto_Villan said:

I think a second invasion would likely be much less successful than the first.

I think Putin would probably just invade somewhere like Georgia or Khazakstan in future, as those would be much easier targets.

Wouldn't it be the 3rd invasion of Ukraine? He's obviously quite fond of the place, suspect it's access to the black sea he's interested in. 

[Panto_Villan]

5 hours ago, tinker said:

Wouldn't it be the 3rd invasion of Ukraine? He's obviously quite fond of the place, suspect it's access to the black sea he's interested in. 

Yeah, assuming you’re counting 2014 and 2022 as different invasions (you could argue it either way). Ukraine is a big prize for Putin, no doubt, and was the second largest state in the USSR so appeals a lot to anyone who wants to recreate the glory days of the Soviet Union. And ironically Kyiv was arguably the birthplace of what we now call Russia anyway, so there’s historical reasons too.

Problem is, every time Putin attacks it, it gets stronger. If he’d launched a full on invasion in 2014 he could have taken the whole country without much trouble because the Ukrainian army was a mess. By 2022 they’d reconstituted it and suddenly Ukraine was capable of holding Russia off. It’d be even harder to go back a third time.

Russia does have access to the Black Sea from their own coast anyway, so that’s probably not his primary motivation.

[magnkarl]

18 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Yeah, assuming you’re counting 2014 and 2022 as different invasions (you could argue it either way). Ukraine is a big prize for Putin, no doubt, and was the second largest state in the USSR so appeals a lot to anyone who wants to recreate the glory days of the Soviet Union. And ironically Kyiv was arguably the birthplace of what we now call Russia anyway, so there’s historical reasons too.

Problem is, every time Putin attacks it, it gets stronger. If he’d launched a full on invasion in 2014 he could have taken the whole country without much trouble because the Ukrainian army was a mess. By 2022 they’d reconstituted it and suddenly Ukraine was capable of holding Russia off. It’d be even harder to go back a third time.

Russia does have access to the Black Sea from their own coast anyway, so that’s probably not his primary motivation.

To add to that, Ukraine was in reality the biggest contributor to the Soviet Union moving forward. Jet engines, helicopters, space programmes, physics, great universities and much of the other intellectual innovation in the union was done in Ukraine. 

We see the same now where Ukraine is essentially developing weapons out of scrap that can fly 1300kms into Russia. Putin needs both the manpower and brains of Ukraine, though at this rate he won't get either.

Edited June 19 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

To add to that, Ukraine was in reality the biggest contributor to the Soviet Union moving forward. Jet engines, helicopters, space programmes, physics, great universities and much of the other intellectual innovation in the union was done in Ukraine. 

We see the same now where Ukraine is essentially developing weapons out of scrap that can fly 1300kms into Russia. Putin needs both the manpower and brains of Ukraine, though at this rate he won't get either.

You’re exaggerating an otherwise fair point there.

Ukrainians obviously played a significant role in the Soviet Union and had many famous scientists (as you’d expect from the second largest country in the USSR) but it clearly wasn’t a bigger overall contributor than Russia itself, a much larger country with four times the population and far greater natural resources.