ender4 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 On 17/03/2024 at 06:19, bickster said: 8th oil refinery in Russia spontaneously combusts this week Does this help the war or is really just symbolic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 18 Moderator Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, ender4 said: Does this help the war or is really just symbolic? Well according to Ukraine its not 8 its 12 now From what I've been reading (I know very little about oil refining) they've been trying to attack very specific parts of refineries, with parts that are hard to replace. If Russia can't refine, they'll be limited to crude for exports. Also I have no way of verifying this but Russia was already short of refined product for the domestic market anyway and I think that's the aim, to degrade Russia's refining capacity to cause hinderance to the general Russian population. So not the war specifically as Russia will obviously prioritise that over domestic supply but crude exports over refined product exports will reduce the export value further of their petroleum product and lack of refined product will hurt the Russians themselves more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 hours ago, ender4 said: Does this help the war or is really just symbolic? 4 hours ago, bickster said: Well according to Ukraine its not 8 its 12 now From what I've been reading (I know very little about oil refining) they've been trying to attack very specific parts of refineries, with parts that are hard to replace. If Russia can't refine, they'll be limited to crude for exports. Also I have no way of verifying this but Russia was already short of refined product for the domestic market anyway and I think that's the aim, to degrade Russia's refining capacity to cause hinderance to the general Russian population. So not the war specifically as Russia will obviously prioritise that over domestic supply but crude exports over refined product exports will reduce the export value further of their petroleum product and lack of refined product will hurt the Russians themselves more It both does and doesn't help. Russia makes all its money from crude oil exports, not exports of refined products - I was reading the state actually loses money on refined products due to the way their tax system works. Plus the military will always have priority over civilian customers, so the military is never going to run short as a result of this. But if the refineries get damaged, it means they can no longer supply the local markets, and they'll need to import those replacement products from other countries, which obviously costs money to do and may annoy the civilian population if there are shortages (as bickster has already said). Is it a major problem for Russia? Probably not. But it's amost certainly worth the cost of the drones Ukraine are hitting the refineries with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) Russia imports refined fuel. Ukraine's attacks are increasing the demand for imported refined products. The ruble is now worthless and nobody will accept payment in rubles. This gives Russia a major problem. They need to pay for their imports with something. They have run out of foreign currency and gold. So their only option is to pay for refined oil with unrefined oil. This further reduces the need for the echange of rubles. The ruble will crash soon. That will make imports even more expensive and exports even cheaper. It's a vicious cycle for Russia. 10 years ago there were 55 rubles to the £. Its now 115. Edited March 18 by Mandy Lifeboats Spelling mishsteaks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post colhint Posted March 18 Popular Post Share Posted March 18 I want to thank many posters on this thread. What we read or see in the press rarely covers this sort of background info. The last few posts typify this. Thanks guys. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Russia imports refined fuel. Ukraine's attacks are increasing the demand for imported refined products. The ruble is now worthless and nobody will accept payment in rubles. This gives Russia a major problem. They need to pay for their imports with something. They have run out of foreign currency and gold. So their only option is to pay for refined oil with unrefined oil. This further reduces the need for the echange of rubles. The ruble will crash soon. That will make imports even more expensive and exports even cheaper. It's a vicious cycle for Russia. 10 years ago there were 55 rubles to the £. Its now 115. I think you're overstating this. They do still have a pretty enormous amount of foriegn currency and gold. They are burning through it, but I've seen estimates of between six to eighteen months before they actually run out. Also, Russia has paid for the vast majority of things with unrefined oil since long before the war - they never had a particularly advanced economy, and oil exports were always far larger than anything else (far larger than natural gas). Previously they'd exchange oil for dollars but now they'll be getting yuan or rupees, but it's functionally the same. Most of the costs of running the war are local, too - e.g. salaries, munitions, etc. They import some things, but most stuff is built locally. Which means that the ruble crashing makes running the war cheaper - the price of oil isn't in rubles, so they'll get more rubles for their oil if their currency crashes, whereas salaries and local prices are in rubles so get cheaper. Sure, it'll fuel inflation to some extent, but the Russian economy really isn't doing that badly given the circumstances. There's only so much you can do to damage an economy that's that rich in natural resources, unfortunately - they grow vast amounts of food, dig loads of raw materials out of the ground, and have massive oil reserves. Plus they've got an unusally large arms industry relative to their GDP. Edited March 18 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 (edited) 7 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: I think you're overstating this. They do still have a pretty enormous amount of foriegn currency and gold. They are burning through it, but I've seen estimates of between six to eighteen months before they actually run out. Actually we are both correct. Russia still has supplies of foreign currency but the steps they have taken to obtain it are draconian and completely unsustainable. Since the start of the war all companies and citizens were obligated to surrender 80% of foreign currency to the Russian central bank at a ridiculous "official" exchange rate. They have also just raised interest rates to 16%. They compelled western companies to sell Russian assets at a tiny % of their true value. They simply stole other assets from the west and Ukraine. Unemployment is low because of conscription and deaths. Prison costs have never been lower because most of them are rotting in the fields around Bakhmut. Those measures are all short term wins but medium/long term disasters. They can't raid the population's foreign reserves again. There's nothing left and what is left has been hidden outside Russia. I have posted this many times. Sanctions will not ruin Russia overnight. They simply make imports expensive and exports cheap. The resultant financial loss then snowballs. Edited March 19 by Mandy Lifeboats Added details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Eggs.......... Nothing could sum up the Russian economy than their recent egg problem. Russia egg producers (the farmers not the hens) could not get spare parts to maintain their hatcheries. Nor could they find skilled workers to maintain the hatcheries. All the engineering companies who could make spare parts were supporting the war. The cost of spare parts rocketed. The cost of labour rocketed. Egg prices went crazy. Putin ordered punishments for the farmers for blatantly profiteering. But this was quickly withdrawn when it was realised that the price rises were justified. The solution was simple. The Russian government purchased eggs from abroad at sky high prices and sold them on the domestic market for much less than their purchase value. But they were still 40% more expensive than a year ago. The resultant expenditure could not be used for the war. The same scenario with occur with car parts, plane parts, mobile phone infrastructure, computers, central heating systems, lifts, escalators, cranes, oil refineries, train parts etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 (edited) Ruble to Gold exchange rate. Over 10 years the ruble is down 300% Over 1 year the ruble is down 30% https://www.xe.com/en-gb/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=RUB&view=10Y This is an excellent website that allows you to track currency values with a few clicks. So far I have only note 1 currency performing worse than the ruble. North Korea. Edited March 19 by Mandy Lifeboats Added details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Why is that posted in this thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I read it as although we are not trading with Russia.Russians are still getting stuff, albeit through Azerbaijan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, colhint said: I read it as although we are not trading with Russia.Russians are still getting stuff, albeit through Azerbaijan Yes, that’s 100% it. I bet there are dozens of new car dealerships on the Russian border now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Just looked at the map. There is a village Samur right on the border, right on a motorway. Population 2388. I bet it's a bit like a goldrush town now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 35 minutes ago, colhint said: Just looked at the map. There is a village Samur right on the border, right on a motorway. Population 2388. I bet it's a bit like a goldrush town now. Range Rovers, iPhones, Cadburys chocolate, Costa Coffee, Nike, Adidas you name it, I bet they sell it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 hours ago, Genie said: Cadburys chocolate No need to cross borders. Parent company Mondelez are still in Russia. Wars, pah. The suits' and shareholders' profits are the most important thing in the World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 (edited) So after entering Russia about a week ago the 4 Russian volunteer groups now fighting for Ukraine are still causing havoc. The videos released show them taking out Russian army positions as far in as Belgorod city, and Russia have started evacuating the city of children. Turns out Russia's interior is much softer than what they thought. Now the Russian air force is slinging FAB500 bombs at their own territory with the usual inaccuracy, taking out houses, schools and people's homes. It's not going down well in the Russian mil-blogger space. The Chechnyan groupings fighting for Ukraine are particularly close to Belgorod. Russia's answer? Lob missiles at civilians in Kyiv and Kharkiv. They still don't get it, do they? Edited March 21 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 It’s a good job Putin is so popular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Feels like watching a car crash in slow motion. Russia are all in. We are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 6 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Feels like watching a car crash in slow motion. Russia are all in. We are not. Though size matters, comparing NATO armies like that with Russian mobiks with depleted gear isn’t really a good picture. Finland alone has more reserves (820.000) than Russia has soldiers alive, see what I mean? One NATO soldier with modern gear is worth many times that of a Russian soldier, especially now that Russia is running low on most things with one smaller army to fight. We need to equip Ukraine and let them deal with Russia they way they’re currently doing, it’s the best investment we’ll make for hundreds of years, and will deter the likes of China from trying something. Russia won’t attack NATO no matter how many times people say it. Moldova, Georgia, the ‘stans and so forth, maybe. I just don’t see the power projection for anything bar Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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