villa89 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 11 hours ago, Genie said: Are young Russian men free to leave the country (before they are called up to the army)? Id be all for fighting for my country for a worthy cause, but I imagine it is very hard to motivate people to join the front line in this Putin vanity project. We hired a guy from Russia who was fleeing the country. He recently received a letter from the minstery of defence saying he was no longer eligible to be drafted. If I was him I wouldn't trust anything that comes from the russian government. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 11 hours ago, magnkarl said: So the Russian attack at Avdiivka has now been turned completely, Russia's lost something like 200 armoured vehicles/tanks, 7000 men and several planes and helicopters in the push. Russia has still not adapted one bit since this started. Problem now is the winter break, war in the middle east, western elections, potential global economic issues and recession on the horizon, news cycle moving on from Ukraine. Unless Ukraine can get some fighters and superior air power it's hard to see anything changing much next year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) It was just a matter of time before Ukraine started internationally hunting these war criminals. Obviously there's no way to see where these people are from, but the kit looks like UAF\NATO uniforms and they're using a Stugna P. Good on them. Edited November 7, 2023 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pas5898 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 11 hours ago, villa89 said: We hired a guy from Russia who was fleeing the country. He recently received a letter from the minstery of defence saying he was no longer eligible to be drafted. If I was him I wouldn't trust anything that comes from the russian government. My father in law was sent a letter requesting he joins the miliary, (He's former Russian Miliary but Lithuanian as the soviet union broke up). He, lives in the UK now. His friend, who is a similar age (late 50's) with military experience who resides in France, was picked up 24 hours into a drip to Volgrorad visting family and forced to join the military. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, pas5898 said: His friend, who is a similar age (late 50's) with military experience who resides in France, was picked up 24 hours into a drip to Volgrorad visting family and forced to join the military. That trip was a bit silly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 13 hours ago, villa89 said: Problem now is the winter break, war in the middle east, western elections, potential global economic issues and recession on the horizon, news cycle moving on from Ukraine. Unless Ukraine can get some fighters and superior air power it's hard to see anything changing much next year either. Hasn't it been virtually a stalemate for 6 months now in terms of control of land area? In which case this will eventually become the new (disputed) border with Russia being pretty happy that they now have the Donbas region plus Crimea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, ender4 said: Hasn't it been virtually a stalemate for 6 months now in terms of control of land area? In which case this will eventually become the new (disputed) border with Russia being pretty happy that they now have the Donbas region plus Crimea. Longer than 6 months, the border is pretty much where it was a few weeks after the invasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Just now, ender4 said: Hasn't it been virtually a stalemate for 6 months now in terms of control of land area? In which case this will eventually become the new (disputed) border with Russia being pretty happy that they now have the Donbas region plus Crimea. This was my prediction a long time ago. Ukraine loses the east but gets a path to EU membership and joins NATO. Russia gets the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 I’m sure this is a massively unpopular opinion but it seems like agreeing to a ceasefire and new border is the best way forward. Putin can enjoy his extended border at the cost of tens of thousands of lives, and a crumbling economy. Ukraine can move forward with EU and Nato memberships. The West can reduce their investment in weapons to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Genie said: Ukraine can move forward with EU and Nato memberships. The West can reduce their investment in weapons to the area. If Ukraine join NATO, this will not reduce investment in weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine will need to get their military up to NATO specifications and with their economy in bits that won't happen without aid, lots of aid. It will also mean NATO troops on the ground for a very long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 It’s certainly been a case on VT that some people are keeping a tally of dead soldiers and blown up rolling stock and declaring Ukraine is winning and Russia is 1 month from total collapse. That’s been the case for nearly 2 years now. Putin is seeing an expanded Russia with thousands of kilometres of extra land and coastline that will go down in Russian history as the land he liberated. Yeah, some of his associates have lost yachts. If they’re still friends they’ll get a new one. Months after any compromise we will be told its right to start trading with Russia again as it’s easier to exert political influence if they are reliant on our financial services, sports tourism, and fast food franchises. Then, in about 10 years time… rinse and repeat. It’s what we do. It’s what Russia expect us to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, bickster said: If Ukraine join NATO, this will not reduce investment in weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine will need to get their military up to NATO specifications and with their economy in bits that won't happen without aid, lots of aid. It will also mean NATO troops on the ground for a very long time If there is an agreement / ceasefire agreed with Russia then the need for massive numbers on the borders like now won’t be necessary (obviously some needed). Neither will they need to build and explode missiles the same day. Their economy will obviously take some time to bounce back but being in the EU opens up that market so it should bounce relatively quickly, and will fund the required investment needed into the NATO budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted November 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Genie said: If there is an agreement / ceasefire agreed with Russia then the need for massive numbers on the borders like now won’t be necessary (obviously some needed). Neither will they need to build and explode missiles the same day. Their economy will obviously take some time to bounce back but being in the EU opens up that market so it should bounce relatively quickly, and will fund the required investment needed into the NATO budget. Even inside the EU it will take decades to build the economy I also just don't see Ukraine giving up their territorial rights over Donbas / Crimea etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, bickster said: Even inside the EU it will take decades to build the economy I also just don't see Ukraine giving up their territorial rights over Donbas / Crimea etc. Do you think they’ll build their economy faster whilst at war? I think at some point the realisation needs to be considered that even with billions of dollars of weapons they’ve failed to make any significant dent on the ground stolen by Russia 2 years ago. It’s up to Zelensky I suppose, but I’d be tempted to look forward to ways to improve my country in the medium term. I don’t think the likelihood of regaining the land is particularly realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, Genie said: If there is an agreement / ceasefire agreed with Russia then the need for massive numbers on the borders like now won’t be necessary (obviously some needed). Neither will they need to build and explode missiles the same day. Their economy will obviously take some time to bounce back but being in the EU opens up that market so it should bounce relatively quickly, and will fund the required investment needed into the NATO budget. This has essentially been the Trump / Musk proposal from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Genie said: Do you think they’ll build their economy faster whilst at war? Pre-invasion 20% of the Ukrainian economy was agricultural. A lot of those fields are currently in Russian hands. 25% of it was industrial, yep a big chunk is blown up. Add to that a big part of it was coal mining (and other natural resources too) which is something that wasn't even really viable pre-war and its a declining market... If Ukraine is to succeed in any post war scenario it needs to completely restructure but it also needs it's land and natural resources to be able to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, LondonLax said: This has essentially been the Trump / Musk proposal from the start. I think from the start it was silly, they rightly had the opportunity to regain the stolen ground. But now in November 2023 they’ve spent 18 months achieving very little, with little prospect of things improving in the future it should (imo) be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, bickster said: Even inside the EU it will take decades to build the economy I also just don't see Ukraine giving up their territorial rights over Donbas / Crimea etc. Do they a have a choice? They are reliant on western countries for arms. European countries like the UK, France, Germany etc. will soon tire of this war and the cost of it. They also don't have the stocks of arms that they can send to Ukraine and they need to ensure they have their own stock of weapons at home. If the orange clown gets re-elected in the US then they won't have US support any more. Ukraine's chance to keep the existing border and re-claim Crimea relied on NATO joining them on the battlefield straight away and destroying Russia with overwhelming force. NATO countries didn't do that, as expected, and just left Ukraine to fight on their own with slow gradual support. Now Russia has a foothold for over 12 months in the eastern part of the country and Ukraine isn't able to reclaim much land. Russia can just play the long game, as they have been doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, bickster said: If Ukraine is to succeed in any post war scenario it needs to completely restructure but it also needs its land and natural resources to be able to do that. It doesn’t look like they’re getting it back, so they need to restructure either way. It’s easier without bombs dropping around you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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