Genie Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Xann said: I think I have PTSD just from watching that. The sound of continuous machine gun fire all around must be harrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 The Ruble has been pushing below 1 US cent per Ruble all week and Russia keeps trying to bring it back over 1 cent. Right now it’s 101.1 Ruble to the dollar so they seem to be losing the battle and may need to make a bigger intervention again soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 It sickens me to my stomach to see people in the west defend Fascist Ruzzia. A vile, murderous regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffs Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Genie said: I think I have PTSD just from watching that. The sound of continuous machine gun fire all around must be harrowing. I might be doing them a complete disservice but looks like they’re just aimlessly firing into thin air. Maybe that’s how it’s done from range…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboy54 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 8 hours ago, Captain_Townsend said: It sickens me to my stomach to see people in the west defend Fascist Ruzzia. A vile, murderous regime. I thought Russia was communist?...but never mind facist = communist = facist, basically the same type of totalitarian regime with an egotistic dictator in charge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 6, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, delboy54 said: I thought Russia was communist?...but never mind facist = communist = facist, basically the same type of totalitarian regime with an egotistic dictator in charge Russia hasn't been communist since 1991 (or, if we're really being accurate, they never were communist... officially they wanted to be, but as with all supposedly communist states they never made the full progression). It's an autocratic oligarchy - the country is essentially run by a series of extremely rich businessmen who picked up state assets at knockdown prices in 1991 and have a tense power dynamic with the government proper, or more accurately Putin since he runs his government like a mafioso. Putin has the ultimate power and he allows the oligarchs freedom to operate within the guidelines he sets. Anyone that steps out of line gets to have a tragic accident, or previously, gets to be removed from their position of privilege. Putin himself is protected though a combination of fear of his power, both as a threat to ones life but also a threat to ones livelihood, and a close group of loyal men that effectively act as a bodyguard and extension of his personal will. He's undoubtedly an authoritarian, and his state is increasingly fascist, with it likely that the autocratic definition for the country will have to slip to true dictatorship soon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 8 hours ago, Buffs said: I might be doing them a complete disservice but looks like they’re just aimlessly firing into thin air. Maybe that’s how it’s done from range…? See the silver band around the rocket propelled grenade? This isn't a necessarily a direct fire munition, there's a proximity element. The collar is a fragmentation assembly. You see them exploding above the targets. The little squares fly out in all directions. If you're lying prone to shoot underneath, your silhouette is at its maximum and your body armour is on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted October 7, 2023 Russia reportedly shot down a second SU-35 today. That’s 2 of its own aircraft in a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 At the current rate of progress of taking back their own land, what the guesstimate of how long it will take to get back all their land? Will the rate of advance improve at any point or is it predicted to eventually slow to a stalemate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, ender4 said: Will the rate of advance improve at any point or is it predicted to eventually slow to a stalemate? It will all probably end in a negotiated settlement with Ukraine losing some of the eastern part in exchange for NATO membership and a path to EU membership. A complete russian defeat is unlikely IMO. Could take years though. Edited October 7, 2023 by villa89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 2 hours ago, ender4 said: At the current rate of progress of taking back their own land, what the guesstimate of how long it will take to get back all their land? Will the rate of advance improve at any point or is it predicted to eventually slow to a stalemate? Sky have an interesting piece on their news site today If Ukraine was unable to make progress this summer when arguably it was as well-prepared as it could ever be, would continued Western military support simply lead to a protracted, costly and largely static conflict. Is that supportable? From the West's perspective, a key motivation for supporting Ukraine - not a member of NATO - was to avoid Russian aggression threatening the rest of Europe. Russia's military capability has been badly damaged by the invasion of Ukraine. Russia has lost more than 2,000 of its most capable tanks - so it looks unlikely that it will have the military capability to threaten Europe again for at least a decade. more on link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 (edited) I wonder if the RoW will agree a truce with Russia. RoW stop giving Ukraine artillery in return for Russia not seeking any more of Ukraine / Europe. Then it just gets left as a defence versus weakened attack. As Tony posted, the initial risk was of a European invasion. That risk is very small now. Edited October 8, 2023 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, Genie said: I wonder if the RoW will agree a truce with Russia. RoW stop giving Ukraine artillery in return for Russia not seeking any more of Ukraine / Europe. Then it just gets left as a defence versus weakened attack. As Tony posted, the initial risk was of a European invasion. That risk is very small now. If Russia has invaded twice and is able to keep the gained ground twice, how does this reduce risk of future conflict? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Mozzavfc Posted October 8, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted October 8, 2023 37 minutes ago, Genie said: I wonder if the RoW will agree a truce with Russia. RoW stop giving Ukraine artillery in return for Russia not seeking any more of Ukraine / Europe. Then it just gets left as a defence versus weakened attack. As Tony posted, the initial risk was of a European invasion. That risk is very small now. Wasn't this the deal Russia agreed to when Ukraine gave back the Soviet nukes. They've shown that their promises mean nothing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: If Russia has invaded twice and is able to keep the gained ground twice, how does this reduce risk of future conflict? It’s just a potential scenario I was thinking about (not a desire). If the West had some (secret) agreement with Putin he would not seek any further land they might agree to leave it mainly to Ukraine from here. Its not the same as letting Russia keep their gains, but just leaving it to Ukraine to fight with mainly their own gear. The state of Russia’s army and economy and the new Nato members must reduce the risk of a European invasion significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Captain_Townsend Posted October 8, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted October 8, 2023 Ruzzia is engaged in hybrid war against the West and has been since 2014 - hacking, disinformation, support for repugnant groups etc. Naive to think you can do a deal with them and they back off. They have to be defeated and the west needs to buck up. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said: Ruzzia is engaged in hybrid war against the West and has been since 2014 - hacking, disinformation, support for repugnant groups etc. Naive to think you can do a deal with them and they back off. They have to be defeated and the west needs to buck up. Yep, but the noises are that the US is struggling to justify funding it at home. If the US steps back then the bigger bill falls on Europe and I expect some push back on that too given inflation and cost of living. Counter offensive has been an expensive flop. I’m just think thing about what might happen (not what is best). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Genie said: It’s just a potential scenario I was thinking about (not a desire). If the West had some (secret) agreement with Putin he would not seek any further land they might agree to leave it mainly to Ukraine from here. Its not the same as letting Russia keep their gains, but just leaving it to Ukraine to fight with mainly their own gear. The state of Russia’s army and economy and the new Nato members must reduce the risk of a European invasion significantly. That will certainly be the reasoning we will use to cut our financial commitments. We have drip fed support. Now we’re worried its going on quite a lot longer than we had hoped. The result? We’ve not pushed Russia back, but Russia has had the time to very slowly learn some lessons and upgrade its tactics. Russia has made massive land gains. No doubt someone will tell me their oil is being wasted at low sale costs and the ruble is worth less than toffee, or it will take them years to replace their tanks. All utterly irrelevant. I think Ukraine has about 12 months max, presuming US congress can sign off budgets. Then wherever they are, that’ll be the border for the next 10 years or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 55 minutes ago, Genie said: It’s just a potential scenario I was thinking about (not a desire). If the West had some (secret) agreement with Putin he would not seek any further land they might agree to leave it mainly to Ukraine from here. Its not the same as letting Russia keep their gains, but just leaving it to Ukraine to fight with mainly their own gear. The state of Russia’s army and economy and the new Nato members must reduce the risk of a European invasion significantly. Is that a bit like the agreement Pregozhin had with Putin for stopping his attack on Moscow? Agreements with Putin usually only work out for Putin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Is that a bit like the agreement Pregozhin had with Putin for stopping his attack on Moscow? Agreements with Putin usually only work out for Putin. I think Putin would consider a deal with the USA which makes his life easier slightly differently to a deal with a single man who humiliated him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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