Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[blandy]

Just now, Genie said:

Again, not entirely comparable. 

A drone which Iran says entered their air space versus a plane full of soldiers in international airspace. War is great for the polls back home too. 

What’s Iran got to do with the incident where a Russian fighter downed the Global Hawk. Are you talking about something else?

[Genie]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

What’s Iran got to do with the incident where a Russian fighter downed the Global Hawk. Are you talking about something else?

I thought you were referring to when the Iranians shot down a Global Hawk which they say crossed into their airspace.

[blandy]

Just now, Genie said:

I thought you were referring to when the Iranians shot down a Global Hawk which they say crossed into their airspace.

The clue is in the phrase “a Russian fighter downed a global hawk over the Black Sea”

[Genie]

Just now, blandy said:

The clue is in the phrase “

a Russian fighter downed a global hawk over the Black Sea”

I’d forgotten about that bumper cars thing that happened more recently.

Again though, I don’t think it’s viewed the same by the US. I think firing at a US plane full of troops would be seen much more harshly. They didn’t have to tell relatives of the drone that they were killed for one.

[blandy]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’d forgotten about that bumper cars thing that happened more recently.

Again though, I don’t think it’s viewed the same by the US. I think firing at a US plane full of troops would be seen much more harshly. They didn’t have to tell relatives of the drone that they were killed for one.

I agree that loss of life would clearly be worse, but [stop calling them “troops” and “soldiers”. They’re aircrew!], still, the response from the US was very low key. As with Romania last week and a couple of other incidents, NATO really does not want to get directly involved in escalating the thing into a wider conflict. 

[chrisp65]

Isn’t aircrew just soldiers that don’t do any real fighting?

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I doubt it.   There are a few precedents

The US accidentally blew up the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. 

The US accidentally shot down an Iranian Airliner. 

 

Turkey purposely shot down a Russian jet not long ago too and nothing happened iirc

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Isn’t aircrew just soldiers that don’t do any real fighting?

Fishing, much? 

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

Fishing, much? 

I had 3 uncles in the RAF, 1 in the army, 1 was a prison officer.

Most weekends were house parties.

The ladz bantz was strong.

 

[sidcow]

48 minutes ago, villa89 said:

FWIW I think you are vastly over rating the pace at which countries evolve to new technologies. Look at how bad most European countries are at going renewable, it's taking decades. And these are the wealthiest countries. It's not realistic to think that second and third world countries are going to be able to adopt the same technology any time soon IMO. 

Yeah, that's because they ALREADY have the infrastructure in place.  The discussion was about emerging economies propping up Russian Oil and Gas.  They're actually LESS likely too because they would have to invest tens of billions that they haven't got, to build Oil and Gas infrastructure. It's horrendously expensive which is precisely why The West is trying to hold on, they've already made the investment so don't want to invest AGAIN to change what they've got.  

If you were starting from scratch renewables would be far far cheaper to build, not to mention you're also then self reliant and not held to ransom by anyone else.

Putin knows which way the wind is blowing if you pardon the pun.

[sidcow]

Talk of China opening more coal plants.  Well sure, they've got infrastructure already built at great expense.  They've got enormous quantities of THEIR OWN coal they can just steal for free from the land owner so it doesn't cost them a bean other than for expendable miners working for slave labour probably.

So yes, why not.

But they are also about to overtake The UK as the biggest offshore wind farmers and will no doubt accelerate ahead.  I don't know about land based turbines but I would bet they are bound to be targeting masses of that and probably world domination in the manufacture of the things.

But what China does, doesn't affect Russia selling oil or gas.  In fact it makes it harder.   Those wind turbines will be all the cheaper, those EV's will be all the cheaper.

If you are a mid African economy looking to make your way in the world and Russia offers a load of knock down oil and gas.  How does it get there?  It's still going to be massively expensive to build huge pipelines and new power stations and new power grid infrastructure from the enormous power station to local towns and cities, and maintain those cables.  Who is going to lend them the money to do that?

Rich Europe has already invested in pipelines hence the in willingness to walk away quote so easy.  The continent is already covered in networks ow power cables and pylons.  

Much quicker and easier to put up a couple of turbines and solar arrays directly into the town .

And all the while Russia are having to sell their oil and gas for less and less profit all the time whilst trying to flog their already dead horse.  I still say they know this and realise they have to wean themselves off selling oil and gas as there is no future hence the invasion.

Edited September 14, 2023 by sidcow

[mjmooney]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

Ergo, the Russian comms was over clear speech radio links, probably somewhere in the region of a channel between 200 and 400 MHz UHF and was simply hoovered up and recorded by the Rivet joint and satellites. Anyone with a V/UHF radio can listen in to this kind of stuff as long as they’re within line of (radio) sight of the aircraft / ground transmitters. Plane spotters do it all the time.

Ironic. I've just been reading about the 1914 battle of Tannenberg, when the Germans were encrypting their phone/telegraph comms - and the Russians were not doing so with theirs, but issuing orders in clear. Result? The Germans intercepted and read all the Russian messages, and knew every move before it happened. And two Russians armies were wiped out in a matter of days. 

Over a century ago, and they still haven't learned. 

[Anthony]

Couple of points to make, one on sanctions and the other on infrastructure for a post fossil fuel world. 

1) Sanctions 

They're in existence for several reasons, firstly to prevent the sanctioned party (in this case Russia) having access to... stuff, particularly tech that can be used for weppins, and tech that helps them extract/refine oil, and, more crudely, reducing the money available for the above. Secondly it is to signal our disapproval, domestically and internationally i.e. SOMETHING MUST BE DONE. Thirdly, often unspoken, it acknowledges that effect #1 above isn't watertight, but it increases the cost, reliability and timescales, of acquiring the sanctioned goods, and also decreases the choice. So yeah, Russia is getting stuff that we don't want them to have, but how much more are they paying for it? Double? Triple? How long does it take to arrive? And so on. Add in the fact that the Rouble has crashed due to sanctions, it's a bit of a shit show for Russia. It all leads to reason four, the overarching reason, which is to make Russia's war less and less viable as time drags on. So, if you encounter anyone suggesting "sanctions don't work", remember reason 3.

2) Infrastructure investment in developing countries 

Government energy infrastructure investment (particularly in the poorer posts of Africa) is/has been generally nil anyway. The big dam in Ethiopia was funded 80% by micro investment and 20% by China. There is almost no electricity grid, save in big cities. Mobile phone use is high as there were hardly any landlines to begin with, so most internet connections are mobile/wireless. There are no gas pipelines to houses. Fuel distribution is private (or publicly listed) companies. 

I wonder how the infrastructure will come about? Local solar/wind generation is cheap ish to set up, but storage (big batteries) and to a lesser extent distribution (charging points) would require much more investment. I wonder who will stump up the finance or guarantee the loans? Tesla? Governments? China? Who knows?

[magnkarl]

Another day, another 1.2 billion S-400 wiped out by Ukraine in Crimea. 

The rumoured 20 or so pieces of this system is starting to get scarce as Putin has one by his villa in Moscow, one at his porn-cave in Sotsji, one is likely covering the Kreml and one is covering Arkhangelsk. 

[villa89]

Quote

Ukraine says it has destroyed a sophisticated Russian air defence system in occupied Crimea.

Kyiv's security service (SBU) and navy carried out the attack on a Russian facility near Yevpatoriya using cruise missiles and drones, a Ukrainian intelligence source told the BBC.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

Link to the article if anyone wants it.

[bickster]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Another day, another 1.2 billion S-400 wiped out by Ukraine in Crimea. 

The rumoured 20 or so pieces of this system is starting to get scarce as Putin has one by his villa in Moscow, one at his porn-cave in Sotsji, one is likely covering the Kreml and one is covering Arkhangelsk. 

Wiki says 57 battalions, presumably 1 complete unit per battalion.

They aren't as rare as claimed by some. China, India, Turkey and Algeria  have some. South Korea was even developing their own system based on it with help from Russia

There's far more than 20 of them

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Its mad how Dzhokhar Dudayev called all this about 30 years ago

Edited September 14, 2023 by BleedClaretAndBlue

[chrisp65]

Just now, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Its mad how Dzhokhar Dudayev called all this about 20 years ago

And yet in his short spell with Everton he couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo. 

Team just not set up for him.

[blandy]

6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

And yet in his short spell with Everton he couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo. 

Team just not set up for him.

I always said he couldn’t do it for toffee.

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, blandy said:

I always said he couldn’t do it for toffee.

Mint!