chrisp65 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Home by Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 1 minute ago, chrisp65 said: Home by Christmas. They've about 30 days left before the weather turns and progress will probably stop. Then over the winter Russia can build up new defences, minefields etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 1 minute ago, villa89 said: They've about 30 days left before the weather turns and progress will probably stop. Then over the winter Russia can build up new defences, minefields etc. I was careful not to say which Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I was careful not to say which Christmas. 2024, at a stretch. Or likely not until Putin is gone. The brain drain in Russia is so severe that the IT sector is now lacking 42% of their work force. Vlad has had to increase the mandatory military age for IT-labourers to 30, up from 27, as there's noe one to keep his VPN running so he can rub one out while watching George Galloway's 'MOATS' or Tucker Carlsson's whataboutism roadshow on X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, villa89 said: They've about 30 days left before the weather turns and progress will probably stop. Then over the winter Russia can build up new defences, minefields etc. I never thought about this. Is this a serious concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted September 11, 2023 Moderator Share Posted September 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, magnkarl said: there's noe one to keep his VPN running so he can rub one out while watching George Galloway's 'MOATS' or Tucker Carlsson's whataboutism roadshow on X. I can’t remember where I heard it, but someone was on the radio or podcast or TV and said Putin doesn’t have a mobile phone or use the internet, because he’s basically paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 27 minutes ago, ender4 said: I never thought about this. Is this a serious concern? Could be, last winter wasn't a big concern in Southern Ukraine. Luhansk, and Northern Donetsk\Kharkiv for sure. Depends on how much rain\snow\freeze comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 54 minutes ago, ender4 said: I never thought about this. Is this a serious concern? Quote Ukraine has little more than 30 days left of fighting before the weather hinders its counter-offensive, the top-ranking US military officer says. Speaking to the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Gen Mark Milley said colder conditions would make it much harder for Ukraine to manoeuvre. He admitted the offensive had gone more slowly than expected. But he said: "There's still heavy fighting going on. "The Ukrainians are still plugging away with steady progress." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66763868 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 What the fall and winter will do is remove all tree cover for the Russian defensive lines. It'll make the job of taking them out with drones and artillery easier. Same for Ukraine in the areas where they employ tree cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 1 hour ago, magnkarl said: What the fall and winter will do is remove all tree cover for the Russian defensive lines. It'll make the job of taking them out with drones and artillery easier. Same for Ukraine in the areas where they employ tree cover. But i guess the point stands that Russia then has time to remine areas and fortify defences for next spring and Ukraine's next counter-offensive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyeddie Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 2 hours ago, blandy said: I can’t remember where I heard it, but someone was on the radio or podcast or TV and said Putin doesn’t have a mobile phone or use the internet, because he’s basically paranoid. He's been in the spy community for 50 years. Paranoid is an understatement. Add to that the rumours of him having underlying Asperger's Syndrome, and an architect personality. He has played the long game and we are paying for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted September 11, 2023 Administrator Share Posted September 11, 2023 50 minutes ago, ender4 said: But i guess the point stands that Russia then has time to remine areas and fortify defences for next spring and Ukraine's next counter-offensive? If the conditions are such that they can move equipment around to do this, then Ukraine will be able to move equipment around too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 1 hour ago, ender4 said: But i guess the point stands that Russia then has time to remine areas and fortify defences for next spring and Ukraine's next counter-offensive? The automatic mine-layers are some of the heaviest equipment out there, if Russia thinks they'll be safe mining areas then the same ground will hold Challengers, Leo's, Strykers etc. It goes both ways, as Limpid suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 4 hours ago, ender4 said: I never thought about this. Is this a serious concern? Hitler and Napoleon would probably agree on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 This means that Ukraine has bases close to Crimea from which they can launch drones and other equipment. The black sea fleet is nowhere to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, magnkarl said: This means that Ukraine has bases close to Crimea from which they can launch drones and other equipment. The black sea fleet is nowhere to be seen. Won’t Russia just shell the shit out of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Just now, Genie said: Won’t Russia just shell the shit out of them? They could, but it'd be missiles or air assets as the BSF are afraid of maritime drones. They won't risk any ships to get close. It's another failure for Russia, and will essentially allow drones to be launched that can go around the bottom tip of Crimea to hit from other directions. More air defenses to Crimea = less air defense elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 11, 2023 Moderator Share Posted September 11, 2023 There's a postscript to this seemingly benign story It eventually flew over Russian occupied Donetsk and Russian soldiers shot at it revealing their positions...oh dear! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 11, 2023 Moderator Share Posted September 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, magnkarl said: This means that Ukraine has bases close to Crimea from which they can launch drones and other equipment. The black sea fleet is nowhere to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 11 hours ago, ender4 said: But i guess the point stands that Russia then has time to remine areas and fortify defences for next spring and Ukraine's next counter-offensive? Not easy mining in the winter months when the ground is solid. Especially when vegetation is minimal and its easier to see when the ground has been disturbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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