Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

45 minutes ago, ender4 said:

So anything happening where/if Ukraine have met the first full line of Russian defence?

Yep, read up thread

 

[bannedfromHandV]

4 hours ago, mjmooney said:

The modern world. Nothing can happen without a conspiracy theory being instantly generated. 

Well, yeah. But we’re dealing with Russia, we constantly reference how unreliable and agenda-driven any communications from within Russia are and yet we believe this without question? 

It was only a thought anyway, I have no idea if he’s actually dead or not.

[bickster]

30 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Well, yeah. But we’re dealing with Russia, we constantly reference how unreliable and agenda-driven any communications from within Russia are and yet we believe this without question? 

It was only a thought anyway, I have no idea if he’s actually dead or not.

This is exactly Russia's style, which why all these people either fall out of the top florr of an office block or blow themselves up in a smoking incident

They'll never admit it but those who need to know (potential dissenters) know the consequences of their actions

There is long history of this happening. Litvinenko and Skirpal happened on UK soil

Just look at the list here. Suspicious deaths of Russian businesspeople (2022–2023)

Quote

Since the beginning of 2022, multiple unusual deaths of Russian businesspeople or high officials, sometimes including their family members, have occurred under what some sources suggest were suspicious circumstances.

There are 44 different people on that list. SOme may not be as suspicious as others but most of them really are, there's even at least one other helicopter incident

[djdabush]

Pskov airbase attacked by drones this evening with four Russian Il-76 strategic aircraft damaged (and that's what the Russians are admitting to). Seems like there's attacks in multiple directions though as there's also videos of explosions in Tula and Bryansk.

 

 

[Demitri_C]

Who saw the Ukrainians using the weapons given to them to attack russia. What a shock

Dont see how outin can complain. Your attacking their country so Naturally they going to attack yours

[bickster]

47 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Who saw the Ukrainians using the weapons given to them to attack russia. What a shock

Dont see how outin can complain. Your attacking their country so Naturally they going to attack yours

What do you mean Dem? 
Which weapons are you suggesting were used?

 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

Who saw the Ukrainians using the weapons given to them to attack russia. What a shock

Dont see how outin can complain. Your attacking their country so Naturally they going to attack yours

They are using their own made kamikaze drones, called the beaver. 

No Western weaponry is used for this purpose.

The issue for Russia is that it's a lot easier to target the largest country in the world with drones going for their widespread military infrastructure than it is to target Ukraine with civilian killing Iranian terror-drones.

Russia has admitted to 'minor damage' to 4 aircraft, here's what minor damage looks like.

Ukrainian sources say they've hit 'dozens' of aircraft during this attack, hopefully TU bombers.

Edited August 30, 2023 by magnkarl

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

What do you mean Dem? 
Which weapons are you suggesting were used?

 

I was under the impression the drones  being used by @magnkarl has just informed me that isnt the case 

Are we ruling out the Ukrainians will use any of the weapon supplied in russia?

 

[Anthony]

2 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I was under the impression the drones  being used by @magnkarl has just informed me that isnt the case 

Are we ruling out the Ukrainians will use any of the weapon supplied in russia?

 

Well, if they want western weapon deliveries to continue, they should continue to refrain from using them on Russian soil. 

All deliveries stop if they use western weapons in Russia. 

[Genie]

If Ukraine managed to successfully push all Russian troops back out of Ukraine what then? I assume Russia will just carry on being a terrorist state full time and throw bombs and missiles into their Ukraine from Russia / the sea.

 

 

[Nigel]

12 minutes ago, Genie said:

If Ukraine managed to successfully push all Russian troops back out of Ukraine what then? I assume Russia will just carry on being a terrorist state full time and throw bombs and missiles into their Ukraine from Russia / the sea.

 

 

It wont get that far. Negotiations at some point is far more likely

[villa89]

22 minutes ago, Nigel said:

It wont get that far. Negotiations at some point is far more likely

Yep, Ukraine is losing a lot of men and don't have the population to replace them. Russia can play the long game and grind them down. In the end Russia will get most of the east and Crimea. Ukraine will get NATO membership and an agreement with the EU about a speedy path to joining. Then it will take years of EU dithering and infighting and Ukraine will probably never get to join. 

 

TL/DR: Putin wins. 

Edited August 30, 2023 by villa89

[magnkarl]

9 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Yep, Ukraine is losing a lot of men and don't have the population to replace them. Russia can play the long game and grind them down. In the end Russia will get most of the east and Crimea. Ukraine will get NATO membership and an agreement with the EU about a speedy path to joining. Then it will take years of EU dithering and infighting and Ukraine will probably never get to join. 

 

TL/DR: Putin wins. 

Sure, I'll give your Putin-thoughts a challenge. Where's your sources for Ukrainian losses then? 

So long as there's a well over 90% approval rate from Ukrainian society to keep fighting this won't stop until Russia is out of Ukraine. It's not you or I (or EU for that matter) that decide what Ukraine gives up. There's absolutely no thoughts from any of the leaders of EU that matter (except for Orban, but he's a fascist nobody), that go along with your ideas here. It would set a precedent to China and Russia that aggression and wide scale murdering is the way to go.

Even if Ukraine has lost 500.000 men (probably not), there's still 10 million more men of combat age that are showing a remarkable appetite for stopping Russia. 

So far in the counter offensive Ukraine is showing a knack for gaining ground without massive losses. It's this methodical outclassing of Russia that will eventually lead to a rout. Ukraine has lost 7 leo 2's since summer, 5 of them are being repaired. The losses you're talking about just aren't true, especially since the start of offensive operations by Ukraine. Add in that Ukraine are now operating vehicles that actually save their crews instead of ignite like a match and the loss ratios are more than managable for Ukraine.

Edited August 30, 2023 by magnkarl

[villa89]

Quote

Where's your sources for Ukrainian losses then? 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

Quote

There has been a dramatic rise in Ukraine's number of dead, according to new estimates by unnamed US officials. The BBC's Quentin Sommerville has been on the front line in the east, where the grim task of counting the dead has become a daily reality.

The unknown soldiers lie piled high in a small brick mortuary, not very far from the front line in Donetsk, where 26-year-old Margo says she speaks to the dead.

 

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, villa89 said:

TL/DR: Putin wins. 

He’ll have gained some land which is currently a pile of burning rubble.

He’ll have lost hundreds of thousands of men. Sales of gas and oil. Lots of Western investment. Economy in ruins. Military in tatters. Pariah state going downhill fast.

I’d say all things considered he hasn’t really won and if he could have the time again he wouldn’t invade.

[magnkarl]

6 minutes ago, villa89 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

 

Okay, so let's go with your 'dozens' every day figure then. Currently Ukraine has around 1 million active personell, let's say they've lost 70.000 KIA and 100.000 WIA.

Since it says dozens, let's say 24.

24*365 (1 year) = 8760.

Let's increase it to 5 dozens, just for argument's sake.

60*365 = 21900.

Do you get where I'm going here?

Don't get caught by Russia's idiotic 'grinding' mentality. It just isn't true. The methodical striking of Russian logistics and prodding by fire is paying massive dividends. Russia are having to plug gaps with mobilised men who show no real will to fight. The slow pace of the regaining of land isn't down to losses, but rather caution from Ukraine's side. It's what any NATO nation would do in the same scenario.

Edited August 30, 2023 by magnkarl

[villa89]

Just now, Genie said:

If he could have the time again he wouldn’t invade.

I think he would. He doesn't give a fiddler's about the economy, state of the land he annexes, loss of value of the rouble or trade with the west. He hates the west. All he wants is something he think will cement his place in history as a great russian leader/conquerer. He thinks gaining back land in Ukraine and Georgia will do that. Then once he gets the land, over time, Russia can make it great again (at least in Putin's head). 

[Genie]

1 hour ago, villa89 said:

I think he would. He doesn't give a fiddler's about the economy, state of the land he annexes, loss of value of the rouble or trade with the west. He hates the west. All he wants is something he think will cement his place in history as a great russian leader/conquerer. He thinks gaining back land in Ukraine and Georgia will do that. Then once he gets the land, over time, Russia can make it great again (at least in Putin's head). 

He wouldn’t ever admit it but he’s absolutely ruined Russia, he knows it and the Russian people know it.

If there was ever a peace deal struck he’d be shouting about his historic win but nobody including himself really believes it.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

The slow pace of the regaining of land isn't down to losses, but rather caution from Ukraine's side. It's what any NATO nation would do in the same scenario.

Partly, though their tactics are different from NATO tactics, I've read. Specifically, Ukraine is simultaneously attacking along a huge range of places, looking, we're told, for weaknesses. They've been encouraged and advised by UK and US military to concentrate more on a particular direction of attack (not to spread themselves so thinly). Obviously the difficulty they have is Russia is also attacking in places, gaining ground, so Ukraine has to use resources to defend.

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, villa89 said:

Yep, Ukraine is losing a lot of men and don't have the population to replace them. Russia can play the long game and grind them down.

I'm not entirely sure about this.

Population of Russia is 143m.  A good many of young fighting age men have left.  A good many fighting age men are burning recruitment centres and murdering recruitment officers and in hiding. 

Population of Ukraine is 44m.   

Russia have been literally throwing men into the meat grinder.  I would not be in the least surprised if their losses are at least 3 - 4 times that of Ukraine which means purely on population they'll run out of men first or be more or less equal before you even think about how many have left and are in hiding.  Ukrainians are better trained, better armed and better motivated and are used strategically with actual tactics instead of being told to march into machine guns holding antiquated rifles.

Edited August 30, 2023 by sidcow