Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

It'd be a good idea for Turkey to do the same. All the 'quasi' friends of Putin should go for it, he doesn't have the balls to alienate the likes of Israel and Turkey.

In other news:

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by magnkarl

[Marka Ragnos]

Had some old Russian friends over for dinner last night. They were saying how the war is on their minds from morning to night. They're desperate for it to end and very much rooting for Ukraine and also against Putin. I knew all this generally, but didn't understand the intensity of their sense of constant worry. They're Russian and Jewish, so that have a particular perspective.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Another small nail in Putin's coffin. 

Let's see if Russia is brave enough to attack an Israeli ship protected by NATO.  

 

 

 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Another small nail in Putin's coffin. 

Let's see if Russia is brave enough to attack an Israeli ship protected by NATO.  

 

 

 

Tbh, it'd be good for Ukraine if Russia did. I'm sure Russia is well aware that it'd probably mean Israeli weaponry in Ukraine in less than a week. Once again Vlad's threats are just that, empty threats.

It's also very likely US pressure in Israel that's forced this move. Without NATO Israel is gone.

Edited August 1, 2023 by magnkarl

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Something happened in the Black Sea yesterday.  Its very difficult to piece it together at the moment and there are many conflicting stories.  But here's a few bits of the jigsaw - 

Russia reports 2 of its warships were attacked by Ukrainian drones but they were destroyed before reaching the ships.  

Intercepted radio conversations suggest at least 1 dead and 5 injured. 

The location was in neutral waters but very close to Turkey. 

Flightradar24 shows that 2 NATO surveillance aircraft headed into the area of the attack at the time. 

Here's the speculation.........

Why would Ukrainian zones be operating in this area?  Its nowhere near Ukraine/Crimea. 

Is it connected to NATO's commitment to protect civilian ships in the Black Sea?  Were these Russia patrol ships attempting to "inspect" a civillian ship?  Russia feels it has the right to do this. 

Have we just seen the first shots fired by NATO directly at Russian ships?  

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added sumfink

[Mandy Lifeboats]

See above

Twitter posts relating to the NATO surveillance planes

 

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

See above

Alleged radio communication from the struck Russian patrol vessel. 

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

When I look at the position of the strike (map in the 2nd tweet) it makes me wonder why Ukraine would have drones in this area and how they would be able to track /locate 2 Russia Patrol boats in that area.  NATO must have been involved.

 

 

 

[Genie]

I love the language used “interested in the area of the rumoured attack” 

[tinker]

Seems like we are on the edge of the conflict escalating, will Russia retaliate to the Israeli ship and the drone attacks? They could board the ship or imbound it, physically stop it moving from the Ukraine or fire across its bows.  

[magnkarl]

57 minutes ago, tinker said:

Seems like we are on the edge of the conflict escalating, will Russia retaliate to the Israeli ship and the drone attacks? They could board the ship or imbound it, physically stop it moving from the Ukraine or fire across its bows.  

Russia has no right (and likely no balls) to do this to an Israeli ship in neutral or Ukrainian waters. If Israel is pushed right into Ukraine's hands in this conflict Russia has another extremely advanced weapons producer likely pouring arms into Ukraine.

Ukraine has stated time and time again that they'll hunt down the whole black sea fleet, no matter where it is. This is likely just them using NATO surveillance to strike at Russian presence in the area. And judging by the fact that Russia is admitting to losing people it's likely lost both ships.

Edited August 2, 2023 by magnkarl

[Mandy Lifeboats]

41 minutes ago, tinker said:

Seems like we are on the edge of the conflict escalating, will Russia retaliate to the Israeli ship and the drone attacks? They could board the ship or imbound it, physically stop it moving from the Ukraine or fire across its bows.  

I doubt it. 

Remember that the Black Sea is 100% controlled by Turkey.  Russia would never get reinforcements into the Black Sea without agreement from Turkey.  Russia's Black Sea fleet has nowhere to run or hide.  

Turkey has already said that they will protect civilian ships going to and from Ukraine.  

Israel has one of the most battle hardened and proven militaries in the world.  

Russia hasn't escalted the conflict after losing its unsinkable  flagship, seeing its perfectly defended bridge fall twice, NATO supplying arms, NATO supplying HIMARS, NATO supplying tanks, the UK supplying cruise missiles, NATO expanding or NATO providing targeting data.  That's not because they don't want to.  It's because they can't.  

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

3 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

 

Ukraine has stated time and time again that they'll hunt down the whole black sea fleet, no matter where it is. This is likely just them using NATO surveillance to strike at Russian presence in the area.

Possibly.  But what about the logistics of Ukraine getting the drones to the right place at the right time when it's so far away from Ukraine?  

Do these drones have a range of 300 or 400 miles??? Remember that they are designed to travel at speed whilst partially submerged. 

I doubt they have marine drones floating around waiting for a Russia ship to be in the area.  Ukraine has no navy.  They would need to put the drones onto a larger ship that was safe from Russian attack and transport the drones into the general area.  

 

 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Possibly.  But what about the logistics of Ukraine getting the drones to the right place at the right time when it's so far away from Ukraine?  

Do these drones have a range of 300 or 400 miles??? Remember that they are designed to travel at speed whilst partially submerged. 

I doubt they have marine drones floating around waiting for a Russia ship to be in the area.  Ukraine has no navy.  They would need to put the drones onto a larger ship that was safe from Russian attack and transport the drones into the general area.  

 

 

Its about 100 km further away than Sevastopol is from Ukraine, Ukraine has hit ships in Sevastopol harbour before today and quite a while ago. Ukrainian Naval Drones have advance a lot in that time. They recently unveiled a new design in May that comes in a number of sizes.

Quote

Design Of The New Maritime Drone
Ukraine has recently acquired some UUVs from Western governments. These are principally to support mine clearing efforts and include 6 supplied via the United Kingdom. Some of this knowhow may have transferred to the new type, although the design and technology will be completely separate.

The TLK-150 is quite a small drone, being only 2.5 meters (8 feet) long. Unusually it has twin thrusters mounted on small wing-like stabilizers and a large keel. Combined with a separate rudder and forward mounted dive planes this should provide excellent agility.

There is a very tall mast with cameras and communications devices. The keel may be to balance this mast. It is possible that this can be used as a periscope for intelligence gathering missions close to the enemy shore. It might also allow ‘human in the loop’ navigation and aiming to carry out attacks.

Designs for two larger UUVs were also revealed by Brave1. The TLK-400 is over twice as long at 4-6 meters (13-20 feet). It also has a much larger diameter body inferring greater range and payload. The TLK-1000 would be much larger again, up to 12 meters (40 feet) in length and with four thrusters. It is unclear whether these larger designs have been built.

Naval News

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Possibly.  But what about the logistics of Ukraine getting the drones to the right place at the right time when it's so far away from Ukraine?  

Do these drones have a range of 300 or 400 miles??? Remember that they are designed to travel at speed whilst partially submerged. 

I doubt they have marine drones floating around waiting for a Russia ship to be in the area.  Ukraine has no navy.  They would need to put the drones onto a larger ship that was safe from Russian attack and transport the drones into the general area.  

 

 

I think the most recent reveal has a range of 800kms. Or they could alternatively be using fishingboats or something to offload the drones further out to sea. The whole point is to scare Russia's now very shrunk Black Sea Fleet back to port, and it's working.

[bickster]

Those purported ships are very modern, both belong to the  Project 22160 class of which 4 have been built (out of 6), they were designed specifically for the Black Sea Fleet and the Sergey Kotov was only commissioned on 30th July 2022, the Vassily Bykov was the first of the class to be commissioned in 2018. Vassily Bykov was the other ship involved in the famous attack on Snake Island

Russia was going to order more of these to be built but decided against it due to recent events, concluding that they were lightly armoured, lacked seaworthiness and had weak air defences

And these are some of their most modern ships and even Russia decided they were shit

[Genie]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Those purported ships are very modern, both belong to the  Project 22160 class of which 4 have been built (out of 6), they were designed specifically for the Black Sea Fleet and the Sergey Kotov was only commissioned on 30th July 2022, the Vassily Bykov was the first of the class to be commissioned in 2018. Vassily Bykov was the other ship involved in the famous attack on Snake Island

Russia was going to order more of these to be built but decided against it due to recent events, concluding that they were lightly armoured, lacked seaworthiness and had weak air defences

And these are some of their most modern ships and even Russia decided they were shit

Probably a the small matter of the millions needed to build them too.

[The Fun Factory]

On 27/07/2023 at 07:56, Genie said:

Fewer and fewer posts in this thread. A faltering counter offensive. Are “we” (outsiders) starting to lose interest in this stalemate? 

link

Of course. Putin is hoping the West will lose interest and move on to the next crisis.  The current elected leaders will eventually be replaced, with different agendas and domestic issues to address.  And if Trump ever got re-elected that would be very bad news.

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

Probably a the small matter of the millions needed to build them too.

Putin announced on Navy Day recently that Russia will build 30 new ships for the Navy (unspecified classes)

Firstly you'd have to question the numbers and secondly even if they do, their recent Naval designs have been mostly spectacular failures.

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Putin announced on Navy Day recently that Russia will build 30 new ships for the Navy (unspecified classes)

Firstly you'd have to question the numbers and secondly even if they do, their recent Naval designs have been mostly spectacular failures.

Is this where we got our 40 new hospitals idea?