villarule123 Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, CVByrne said: Full on insurrection now. Awesome unless Putin is replaced by someone even more crazy. He is if this lot take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, villarule123 said: As amusing as this is now, there's a lot of bad scenarios and probably very few good ones if this mob take over Russia. This mob will have no chance against NATO. They don't have much chance against Ukraine alone (albeit with NATO help). Ukraine is nailed-on to join NATO as soon as Russia is kicked out or they withdraw. As for Belarus, as soon as Putin falls, I would expect Lukashenko to do so too (he's probably already in Turkey). If the angry chef eventually takes over and turns to say, Georgia, then who knows but I would anticipate some level of support from NATO. The bigger question is what happens if Russia ends up in civil war - China will be licking their lips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, villarule123 said: He is if this lot take over. They won't take over. They'll just want Putin gone and his cronies gone. Assume the path forward then could be an election. Who knows though as these things never play out to any kind of plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villarule123 Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, trekka said: This mob will have no chance against NATO. They don't have much chance against Ukraine alone (albeit with NATO help). Ukraine is nailed-on to join NATO as soon as Russia is kicked out or they withdraw. As for Belarus, as soon as Putin falls, I would expect Lukashenko to do so too (he's probably already in Turkey). If the angry chef eventually takes over and turns to say, Georgia, then who knows but I would anticipate some level of support from NATO. The bigger question is what happens if Russia ends up in civil war - China will be licking their lips. Yeah but having this lot in control of nukes is a little scary to say the least. Also, isn't there more chance of Russia being fully mobilised if Wagner take over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Even if Putin did "want to do a deal", how do you trust him not to agree to something, then have you and your men killed as soon as you don't have 25,000 soldiers camped in one of his cities? There's no way back from this, surely. I think it was always going to be difficult, but there was always the option for Putin to step down peacefully (because he’s probably dead now if he loses) even if they couldn’t arrange something else. Maybe if Prigozhin had been given the MoD that would have been enough for him? Controlling the literal army, as well as his own private army? All of the options would have been recognition that Putin knew he’d lost the power struggle though. So it’ll be really interesting to see if the military / FSB units in Moscow actually put up a fight when Wagner moves in on them (because they haven’t anywhere else). Because apparently Putin still thinks he can win this. Edited June 24, 2023 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 What ever happened to that dymitri medvedev fella the former PM who seemed to have had a good relations with the west ? He took over from putin for a bit before putin came back? The wests relationship with russia seemed better than it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, villarule123 said: Yeah but having this lot in control of nukes is a little scary to say the least. Also, isn't there more chance of Russia being fully mobilised if Wagner take over? This is the problem. Nobody truly knows Priz’s intentions. All we have to go on are the words he’s spoke to date and they do contain some sympathy for Ukraine in that he calls the reasons for a war a lie and that Russians have been duped into believing what the Kremlin is telling them. He also states that his coup isn’t supposed to infringe on the front line which suggests that if he is successful, the war may continue. Who knows. Either way, what’s happening can only be deemed as positive because Russia is tearing itself apart. You may well see a full retreat of the Russian army in the coming days / weeks if they get wind of the insurrection. I don’t believe for a second they want to be there. What’s not being spoken about much is Ukraines reaction to all of this. What do you do if you’re in charge of their army now? All out assault and capitalise on the mess? Or stand back and watch them destroy themselves? Personally, it feels like a good time to go for the jugular and attack every line with every bit of equipment possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, villarule123 said: Yeah but having this lot in control of nukes is a little scary to say the least. Also, isn't there more chance of Russia being fully mobilised if Wagner take over? There's pretty much zero chance of them using nukes. If they did, Russia would cease to exist. Don't forget that it just doesn't take a button in some office to let off one of these things. There will be many people in the chain and as soon as something suggests something is happening, they will be taken out. As for the fully mobilised comment, one could argue that Russia already are. They will bluff to state they have vast reserves but they also need to patrol and protect their Eastern borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobsons Choice Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, CVByrne said: They won't take over. They'll just want Putin gone and his cronies gone. Assume the path forward then could be an election. Who knows though as these things never play out to any kind of plan Agreed. Wagner is not a political organisation, and this coup attempt is not a popular uprising. They are a gun. Worst comes to worst we take him out after he gets Putin. I thought last night Prigozhin was trying to give Putin an out by blaming everything on the defence secretary and saying Putin had been lied to, but opportunities to de-escalate pass Putin like clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfTimePost Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 unless I've misunderstood, Prigozhin hasn't blamed Putin yet he's said he's going against the MoD because they have deceived Putin into the war. I would assume, at least to keep up appearances of being the Ultra-Nationalist that he portrays himself as, Prigozhin will be happy to replace Shoigo and unite Wagner and the Army together under his command, rather than the other way round proposed by Shoigo. Then eventually he'll stage a proper coup. But it's difficult to stage a military coup without actually controlling the military. Suppose it all depends how aggressively Putin reacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, HalfTimePost said: unless I've misunderstood, Prigozhin hasn't blamed Putin yet he's said he's going against the MoD because they have deceived Putin into the war. I would assume, at least to keep up appearances of being the Ultra-Nationalist that he portrays himself as, Prigozhin will be happy to replace Shoigo and unite Wagner and the Army together under his command, rather than the other way round proposed by Shoigo. Then eventually he'll stage a proper coup. But it's difficult to stage a military coup without actually controlling the military. Suppose it all depends how aggressively Putin reacts Putin has come out on national TV stating "Russia is fighting for life and security of its citizens", "treason" etc. He has a bounty on his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: What ever happened to that dymitri medvedev fella the former PM who seemed to have had a good relations with the west ? He took over from putin for a bit before putin came back? The wests relationship with russia seemed better than it is now Pretty sure Medvedev was a stooge as the constitution at the time meant Putin couldn't be president but he still called all the shots, he just called himself PM instead. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfTimePost Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: What ever happened to that dymitri medvedev fella the former PM who seemed to have had a good relations with the west ? He took over from putin for a bit before putin came back? The wests relationship with russia seemed better than it is now He was only there as Putin had reached his maximum terms as President. He was a puppet and made Putin Prime Minister immediately. And then Putin could go back to President at the end of his term and so they swapped positions. I think later on Putin changed a law which allows him to remain President indefinitely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 SkyNews with no mention of it at all. Top story is about people working from home causing a hose pipe ban. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted June 24, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted June 24, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Genie said: SkyNews with no mention of it at all. Top story is about people working from home causing a hose pipe ban. I've been watching since 9 o'clock and it was the main story and it's the lead story on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Just now, sharkyvilla said: I've been watching since 9 o'clock and it was the main story and it's the lead story on their website. I was looking on the website but it seems it was only giving me UK news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Putin making no attempt to play this down. He’s proper rattled. The government and military must be on the brink of crumbling. If Putin is cornered, do they kill him or hand him over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 It's crazy to me that people are just casually uploading videos from the scene. You've got to be pretty **** stupid to be stood up close videoing a coup in action as a civilian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Davkaus said: It's crazy to me that people are just casually uploading videos from the scene. You've got to be pretty **** stupid to be stood up close videoing a coup in action as a civilian. You’re not thinking about all the likes though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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