Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[KentVillan]

Where is the best place to find genuinely non-aligned / neutral coverage on Russia / Ukraine? Like is there a country that really hasn’t picked a side, or is it just impossible at this point?

I’m very much of the view that Russia needs to be driven out of Ukraine militarily, but it does seem like there is an awful lot of pro-Ukraine propaganda and disinfo in the western media, and it can be hard to take a step back sometimes and look at things rationally.

What’s really hard to get a handle on is which actions get endorsed by whom. Some stuff seems to be obviously coordinated at the NATO level, some is Ukrainian govt solo, and some is just random groups acting autonomously or with just tacit approval.

And given both sides are fragmented anyway, you’d imagine different factions within the Ukrainian and Russian militaries have opposing strategic and tactical views.

The thing I’m reminded of is how the Irish War of Independence very quickly turned into the Irish Civil War. Easy to see something similar happening in Ukraine, with more conciliatory groups being seen as betraying the hardline nationalists.

Just feel the longer this goes on, the more unintended consequences arise and prolonged wars like this are hugely traumatising events which echo for generations.

(Not really sure what point I’m making… clearly no obvious solution to this, as long as Russia continues down this path. Just some random thoughts for a Thursday lunchtime.)

[villa89]

2 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

The thing I’m reminded of is how the Irish War of Independence very quickly turned into the Irish Civil War. Easy to see something similar happening in Ukraine, with more conciliatory groups being seen as betraying the hardline nationalists.

There's absolutely no chance of this. The Irish civil war was something much different and in a different era. Here Ukraine is completely reliant on outside support, both now and after the war. If a peace agreement comes and it's supported by the EU and NATO then Ukraine will have to accept it and try to rebuild what's left of their country. They won't be able to split into separate groups and start fighting amongst themselves. They will be too busy joining NATO and trying to join the EU to make sure this doesn't happen ever again. 

[Mr_Dogg]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

What’s really hard to get a handle on is which actions get endorsed by whom. Some stuff seems to be obviously coordinated at the NATO level, some is Ukrainian govt solo, and some is just random groups acting autonomously or with just tacit approval.

And given both sides are fragmented anyway, you’d imagine different factions within the Ukrainian and Russian militaries have opposing strategic and tactical views.

The thing I’m reminded of is how the Irish War of Independence very quickly turned into the Irish Civil War. Easy to see something similar happening in Ukraine, with more conciliatory groups being seen as betraying the hardline nationalists.

Just feel the longer this goes on, the more unintended consequences arise and prolonged wars like this are hugely traumatising events which echo for generations.

You can read into things all you like, but military actions by Ukraine are all carried out under one leadership. NATO are not involved, not officially anyway. And there is no sign of any conciliation happening with Russia so how can there be division?

Russia is clearly the basket case here and the one in danger of civil war.

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

It’s clearly possible that either side did it, no arguments there. I’m just not nearly as convinced as you seem to be that it has benefited Ukraine to any extent. It’s also a bit of a question in my mind how they might have undetected managed to do it, when the dam was under Russian control. It would certainly be easier for Russia to have done it.

BBC News this morning said Ukraine has an area the size of Norfolk that grows high value crops like watermelon and totally relied on the dam for water. 

They'll lose the crops if there is not a decent amount of rain this summer causing huge damage to an economy already on its knees. 

Not sure Ukraine would have inflicted that on themselves just to wash away a few troops on the far bank. 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Ffs, there really are no bounds

[magnkarl]

When does Ukraine start seriously working at taking out Russian officials around the world, like Israel did with Nazis after the war?

That horrendous child abducting lady Maria Lvova-Belova and close friend of Putin should be number 1 priority, the video of her saying that they are saving kids and she wouldn't do any harm to kids is giving me the shivers. Absolute pit of a human being. This lady and the Russian leadership doesn't deserve the Hague, they deserve what happened to Ceausescu and his wife.

Add to that the endless catastrophy they've now inflicted on the nature and people around one of the most biodiverse river-deltas in the world, and we're looking at several species being pushed to the very edge because Vlad can't handle losing.

Edited June 8, 2023 by magnkarl

[villa89]

18 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

When does Ukraine start seriously working at taking out Russian officials around the world, like Israel did with Nazis after the war?

My guess is that they are scared to do too much in Russia itself in case the pussies in NATO tell them off for it. In reality they should go full assassination mode in Russia. Anyone in politics or the military is a target. Car bombs, etc. It's a lot more difficult to ignore a war when it's on your doorstep. 

[bickster]

25 minutes ago, sidcow said:

BBC News this morning said Ukraine has an area the size of Norfolk that grows high value crops like watermelon and totally relied on the dam for water. 

The canal only services the left bank and Crimea. Ukraine doesn't currently occupy that area

[Panto_Villan]

3 hours ago, LondonLax said:

It is certainly true that Russia had the ‘means’ but my first thought is that neither side had the ‘motivation’  

The whole point of Russia’s ‘land bridge’ was to secure that dam and canal behind it supplying Crimea. What use is it to them now? The reasoning given for them being responsible seems weak. 

At the same time Ukraine obviously does not want to see any more distraction of their land than has already occurred. 

Both sides could potentially make some use of it but the motivation might only become clear in time.

Whether Ukraine had the means to do it, I could not say. They obviously do undertake operations behind enemy lines which we joke about being a Russian ‘smoking accident’. When they previously talked about taking it out the plan was supposedly to hit it with HIMARS which they did once before. Russia has said they did the same this time round resulting in the collapse but no evidence for that that has been presented. 

We’ll probably need to wait and see. We may well find out over time who was ultimately responsible and why. 

I don’t think there’s any motivation for Ukraine to blow the dam, even leaving aside the huge civilian and ecological cost it would inflict.

As bickster has said there was zero realistic chance of a proper amphibious assault over the river that could reclaim territory. All the previous Ukrainian attacks on the dam were carried out when the Russians still held Kherson city, and were about disrupting the supply route that ran along the top of the dam.

I’d say there was plenty more motivation for Russia to do it, at least in the short term. It does cut off water to Crimea, that’s true - but that’s only a problem if the Russians thought they’d be able to keep control of the dam for the foreseeable future anyway. Otherwise they were going to lose the water source either way.

[allani]

22 minutes ago, villa89 said:

My guess is that they are scared to do too much in Russia itself in case the pussies in NATO tell them off for it. In reality they should go full assassination mode in Russia. Anyone in politics or the military is a target. Car bombs, etc. It's a lot more difficult to ignore a war when it's on your doorstep. 

The trouble is that there is potential for that to increase support for Putin and his buddies - or pave the way for someone even more fanatical.  Their best bet it to start liberating parts of Ukraine.  That is the way that supporters of Putin will start questioning whether the propoganda they have been fed is accurate and whether they have backed the right horse, it is also the way that Russians will start asking whether the human (and economic) loss is really worth it and I think it is the way that "liberal" protesters can feel emboldened to take to the streets.  Ultimately, it is also the way that makes it more likely that someone takes out Putin (one way or another) - the trick will be making sure that it is done by the right side and not by Wagner who would just replace him with an even bigger threat.

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Where is the best place to find genuinely non-aligned / neutral coverage on Russia / Ukraine? Like is there a country that really hasn’t picked a side, or is it just impossible at this point?

I’m very much of the view that Russia needs to be driven out of Ukraine militarily, but it does seem like there is an awful lot of pro-Ukraine propaganda and disinfo in the western media, and it can be hard to take a step back sometimes and look at things rationally.

What’s really hard to get a handle on is which actions get endorsed by whom. Some stuff seems to be obviously coordinated at the NATO level, some is Ukrainian govt solo, and some is just random groups acting autonomously or with just tacit approval.

And given both sides are fragmented anyway, you’d imagine different factions within the Ukrainian and Russian militaries have opposing strategic and tactical views.

The thing I’m reminded of is how the Irish War of Independence very quickly turned into the Irish Civil War. Easy to see something similar happening in Ukraine, with more conciliatory groups being seen as betraying the hardline nationalists.

Just feel the longer this goes on, the more unintended consequences arise and prolonged wars like this are hugely traumatising events which echo for generations.

(Not really sure what point I’m making… clearly no obvious solution to this, as long as Russia continues down this path. Just some random thoughts for a Thursday lunchtime.)

Hmmm, what are you actually asking for here?

I guess you could take a look at the Indian media if you want a neutral country, but I’m not sure not picking a side makes them inherently more trustworthy. I suspect their analysis will be entirely self-centered, as probably reflects the world view of anyone who hasn’t picked a side in the conflict.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I guess you could take a look at the Indian media if you want a neutral country,

India that buys Russian military hardware and oil and is a joint member of BRICS? That India?

[Panto_Villan]

13 minutes ago, bickster said:

India that buys Russian military hardware and oil and is a joint member of BRICS? That India?

Yeah. They're neutral. Their stance is basically pure self-interest. They run military drills with the US while refusing to join in on Russian sanctions because they can get cheap oil. It's about as non-aligned as you can possibly be in this conflict.

[sidcow]

48 minutes ago, bickster said:

The canal only services the left bank and Crimea. Ukraine doesn't currently occupy that area

well that's what the BBC said.

Maybe there are other irrigation methods other than the canal?

[bickster]

8 minutes ago, sidcow said:

well that's what the BBC said.

Maybe there are other irrigation methods other than the canal?

There's the Dnipro-Kryvyi Rih canal but it's a little unclear if that is out of action or not. I'm also not sure if the Crimean canal is completely out of action either, I've seen claims it's level has dropped but is still flowing but they were Russian claims

[Genie]

What’s Roman Abramovic up to these days? He was heavily involved at the start but now nothing it seems. Is he living in Russia? 

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

What’s Roman Abramovic up to these days? He was heavily involved at the start but now nothing it seems. Is he living in Russia? 

Living in Israel I think

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

Living in Israel I think

I bet he’s spending a fair amount of money on security 

[sidcow]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

I bet he’s spending a fair amount of money on security 

And lives in a bungalow.

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, Genie said:

I bet he’s spending a fair amount of money on security 

Hospitals apparently