bickster Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Jareth said: I agree that it still makes no sense for Russia to have done that - what purpose has it served? It's a message for the vatniks, just as this staged protest outside the British Embassy in Moscow today is This is how Russian propaganda works. False Flag attacks are often used in the Putin playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 NS Attacks. Who done it? Motivation For Russia Sends a message that they no longer wish to supply gas. Sends a message that they can attack any undersea pipeline or cable. An attack of these to the UK would leave us vulnerable. Its a retaliation for a similar action undertaken against them. They are trying to provoke a split in NATO using a false flag operation. Risks For Russia Its an act of war against NATO. It removes the possibility of gas supply as a bargaining chip. Motivation for USA/UK It removes a bargaining chip for Russia. It gives Germany no reason to placate Russia. It increases European dependence on US and UK supplies. Risks For USA/UK Its an act of war. It could break up NATO. Several countries could effectively change sides. Based on those factors it makes no real sense for either side. I hope I live long enough to find out what really happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: NS Attacks. Who done it? Motivation For Russia Sends a message that they no longer wish to supply gas. Sends a message that they can attack any undersea pipeline or cable. An attack of these to the UK would leave us vulnerable. Its a retaliation for a similar action undertaken against them. They are trying to provoke a split in NATO using a false flag operation. Risks For Russia Its an act of war against NATO. It removes the possibility of gas supply as a bargaining chip. Motivation for USA/UK It removes a bargaining chip for Russia. It gives Germany no reason to placate Russia. It increases European dependence on US and UK supplies. Risks For USA/UK Its an act of war. It could break up NATO. Several countries could effectively change sides. Based on those factors it makes no real sense for either side. I hope I live long enough to find out what really happened. The Ukranians? The Chinese for shits and giggles? A Russian anti-Putin splinter group? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Jareth said: I agree that it still makes no sense for Russia to have done that - what purpose has it served? Same purpose as them cutting off the gas served. To pressure the EU (via citizen discontent at lack of gas/high gas prices) to ease off on Russia. It's one of those where it's possible to find a motive for any party involved that it was them, or to find a motive as to why it wasn't each of the parties involved. Russia - Plenty in Russia high up say "the West is evil and out to destroy Russia - make sure the gas is not just temporarily cut off but ensure it os off for a good long time, to hurt them and weaken them...but why would they destroy the pipe, when they'd already made up an excuse as to why they'd cut off the gas? USA - Sell more LNG to the EU or to remove the possibility of Russia putting the gas back on if the EU "gave" them something like weakened support for Ukraine...but why would the USA risk the EU citizens pressuring their gov'ts this winter to weaken their stance on Russia due to lack of gas? why would USA risk being exposed as breaking the EUs gas supply? and massively damaging relations with the EU, when the US needs to keep the EU onside? UK/EU - The UK did it for the Americans!...but why would the UK risk being exposed as breaking the EUs gas supply and completely destroying all relations with the EU? The Company running the pipelines is a joint Russian European one, I believe - it's not just Gazprom, but a joint venture type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 33 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: I hope I live long enough to find out what really happened. I said at the time, and still think the most likely is Russian hardliners in the Military, but it's not completely impossible that it was a Western nation - it clearly took military capability, but the gas supply to the West is a tool Russia has long held as a weapon and using it (cutting off the Supply) is a clear persuasive/coercive asset. We've seen with Russian acts that retaliation for the Bridge damage, retaliation for the Ship sinking and ship attacks is has been wrought. Retaliation for NATO /European help for Ukraine seems entirely within their modus operandi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, ender4 said: The Ukranians? The Chinese for shits and giggles? A Russian anti-Putin splinter group? Ukraine. No chance. NATO could have simply withdrawn support. A huge risk for little gain. China. No chance. If they wanted war with NATO there are better ways to do it. Russian splinter group. Possible. But why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 Oh look, he's still an idiot. top of the bill arguing for negotiating with Russia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 So, there will also be another 45 T-72 MBTs from the Netherlands (They were all sourced from the Czech Republic) The Phoenix Ghost Drones have been specially built for Ukraine and have never been seen in public or on a battlefield before More air defence is good Also note the 40 Armoured Boats, that is more significant than it appears moving forward I think 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Russian splinter group. Possible. But why? As we know a large chunk of the internal criticism aimed towards Russia’s efforts has been around not being aggressive enough towards both Ukraine and also the west and EU. So on those lines, wrecking the pipelines is a harder version of pretending a compressor is broken and can’t be replaced just yet because of sanctions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 35 minutes ago, bickster said: So, there will also be another T-72 MBTs from the Netherlands (They were all sourced from the Czech Republic) The Phoenix Ghost Drones have been specially built for Ukraine and have never been seen in public or on a battlefield before More air defence is good Also note the 40 Armoured Boats, that is more significant than it appears moving forward I think When will the penny drop with Putin that he can’t win. The West are only in 2nd gear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted November 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, Genie said: When will the penny drop with Putin that he can’t win. The West are only in 2nd gear. It won't because Putin doesn't have an off ramp. His rhetoric throughout has been way over the top, he has extremists pushing him harder etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted November 4, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, Genie said: When will the penny drop with Putin that he can’t win. The West are only in 2nd gear. He can win, it's just not likely anymore and not the easy ride he thought he'd have - if NATO states stop supporting Ukraine he wins, which means he's set for a long conflict and pressuring Ukraine's allies by other means, primarily playing the energy crisis. It's a gamble though and hasn't worked yet. The problem, though, is he can't really lose either - he can basically keep this going until he chooses not to, or he has the choice taken from him. Losing now requires him giving up, which he can't do without massive damage to his standing, which is effectively where his power ultimately comes from. Ukraine and it's allies aren't going to 'defeat' Russia in the classic sense, and are relying on Russian will to fight being broken or internal pressures to remove Putin, which is also a long game - bleeding their military force will take a while, even though their air force is falling apart and they've moved to conscripts, and Putin's position is pretty safe due to the system he's set up and his dictatorial style protecting him. So it's all a **** mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chindie said: He can win, it's just not likely anymore and not the easy ride he thought he'd have - if NATO states stop supporting Ukraine he wins, which means he's set for a long conflict and pressuring Ukraine's allies by other means, primarily playing the energy crisis. It's a gamble though and hasn't worked yet. The problem, though, is he can't really lose either - he can basically keep this going until he chooses not to, or he has the choice taken from him. Losing now requires him giving up, which he can't do without massive damage to his standing, which is effectively where his power ultimately comes from. Ukraine and it's allies aren't going to 'defeat' Russia in the classic sense, and are relying on Russian will to fight being broken or internal pressures to remove Putin, which is also a long game - bleeding their military force will take a while, even though their air force is falling apart and they've moved to conscripts, and Putin's position is pretty safe due to the system he's set up and his dictatorial style protecting him. So it's all a **** mess. I don’t see Europe and the US etc stopping their support for Ukraine for similar reasons as Putin can’t back down. There’s the extra problem that success for Putin is devastating for Ukraine, Europe and the RoW. It can’t happen, and there’s no reason really why it should as there’s 1000x more fire power against him than he has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il_serpente Posted November 4, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2022 26 minutes ago, Genie said: I don’t see Europe and the US etc stopping their support for Ukraine for similar reasons as Putin can’t back down. There’s the extra problem that success for Putin is devastating for Ukraine, Europe and the RoW. It can’t happen, and there’s no reason really why it should as there’s 1000x more fire power against him than he has. The right wing crazies in the US are already saying they'll cut off aid if they win back Congress. They'll have a lot of power in the House and McCarthy doesn't have the balls to stand up to them because Trump will turn on him and he'll be in danger of losing his position as speaker. We may have to rely on a few principled Republicans to vote with the Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted November 4, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, il_serpente said: The right wing crazies in the US are already saying they'll cut off aid if they win back Congress. They'll have a lot of power in the House and McCarthy doesn't have the balls to stand up to them because Trump will turn on him and he'll be in danger of losing his position as speaker. We may have to rely on a few principled Republicans to vote with the Dems. Even without the USA Russia are going to struggle. The battle lines have been drawn and Europe has backed the Ukraine, if Russia wins then Europe loses. Russia is loosing 700-800 troops a day, play that out over a few months and add in the injured and they will run out of troops pretty soon and have to remobilse more civilians from a more influential group of Russians. He will lose, Russians will defeat him. The real worry is who will replace him. For the world to be safe Russia has to be a stable democracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fruitvilla Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, tinker said: For the world to be safe Russia has to be a stable democracy. This, for certain. I don't think history is on the world's side. We need Russia to be drawn into the fold, the West failed in 1990, understandably. Have to do better next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 It will take a very long time before Russia elects a leader who wants to align with the Western world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fruitvilla Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 46 minutes ago, Genie said: It will take a very long time before Russia elects a leader who wants to align with the Western world. My take is it will be a long time before a leader who wants to align with the western world will be allowed to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 15 hours ago, bickster said: ……this staged protest outside the British Embassy….. Zoom in on the guy on the left with the Union Jack. The work he has put into that flag is amazing. He must have ruined his felt tip pens. Bravo sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 9 hours ago, tinker said: For the world to be safe Russia has to be a stable democracy. There's a first time for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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