bannedfromHandV Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Most of the experts who have called the various phases of this conflict accurately throughout seem to think the nuclear option is a possibility, but highly unlikely. For a start, Putin can’t just do it by himself with a PlayStation controller. But also it doesn’t really help Putin hold on to power, which will be his main worry at the moment. He’s a nasty word removed who has made a lot of big blunders, but he’s not completely irrational. He may not be completely irrational but he’s also very far from being completely rational. I don’t know, if his forces are beaten back, his own people start rebelling, he could feel like he has nowhere to go other than to order a nuke to be fired (egged on by the same sycophants that said invading Ukraine would be a good idea in the first place), all it would take then is a handful of loyal nut jobs below him and one could get airborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, KentVillan said: ... but he’s not completely irrational. Everything from his fortune to his place in Russian and World history is on the table. He was dissing Gorbachev for breaking up the Soviet Union, now he's potentially finishing the Russian Federation. Never met him, but it seems potentially dicey? Wasn't around for the Cuban missile crisis, is this the closest to the edge we've been since then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: He may not be completely irrational but he’s also very far from being completely rational. I don’t know, if his forces are beaten back, his own people start rebelling, he could feel like he has nowhere to go other than to order a nuke to be fired (egged on by the same sycophants that said invading Ukraine would be a good idea in the first place), all it would take then is a handful of loyal nut jobs below him and one could get airborne. Ideally by the time we get to this phase Ukraine has NASAM batteries following their troops. These should be able to detonate a smaller nuke high up in the air. Also looking at the failure rate of Russia's missiles so far in this war it's likely to fail 70% of the time and fall down. There's plenty of videos showing Kalibr missiles hitting Belgorod instead of Ukraine as they've been stored horribly. Imagine how badly the nukes have been stored. I presume that Putin has been told by both China and USA that nukes are off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Xann said: Everything from his fortune to his place in Russian and World history is on the table. He was dissing Gorbachev for breaking up the Soviet Union, now he's potentially finishing the Russian Federation. Never met him, but it seems potentially dicey? Wasn't around for the Cuban missile crisis, is this the closest to the edge we've been since then? The Cuba missile crisis was much, much closer to disaster from what I’ve read, as both sides were convinced the other side was planning a nuclear attack. At the moment the ball is very much in Putin’s court, and let’s remember Russia’s own territorial borders are being respected. It’s not completely unthinkable, but I think people saying the probability has climbed to 25% or whatever (as one guy said on Twitter yesterday) are overstating it. Bear in mind that Putin has other levels of escalation he can use before going nuclear - formally declaring war, chemical weapons, biological weapons, etc. The fact he hasn’t done any of this yet suggests he is trying to limit the blowback from this in a semi-rational way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Scary stuff: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, KentVillan said: The fact he hasn’t done any of this yet suggests he is trying to limit the blowback from this in a semi-rational way. Trying to keep what he has. If he's standing to lose that? It gets interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Xann said: Trying to keep what he has. If he's standing to lose that? It gets interesting. I agree this is a risky phase of the war. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Scary stuff: IF this is real, then it’s very concerning and indicates a big escalation. I’m not convinced this is what it claims to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, It's Your Round said: IF this is real, then it’s very concerning and indicates a big escalation. I’m not convinced this is what it claims to be though. Hasn’t been picked up by a reliable source yet afaics. Let’s see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choffer Posted September 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 12, 2022 Slight slowing in progress: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Not sure on this chap's location or loyalties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 1 hour ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Scary stuff: Strangely beautiful if you disregard what it is or the horror of what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 12, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 12, 2022 I've only just come across this account but seems worthy of a follow.Latest tweet is yet another about Kherson Troops possible surrender. Good maps that explain things clearly This one explains the situation around Izyum 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 4 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said: This is all good news obvs but there is a nuclear problem with Russia being backed into a corner, or at least feeling like they’re backed into a corner. That’s the point at which we’d have to hope for internal change in Russia otherwise we could see something truly catastrophic occur. I’d say the chances of Russia firing a nuke into Ukraine is increasing exponentially at the moment. I'm not sure you are right tbh. Any use of nuclear weapons, even strategic will bring an end to Putin faster than conventional warfare. Nuclear isn't really an option unless Russia is directly attacked. This is why all we've seen from Russia are threats of nuclear escalation and no attacks. They know there will be no way out of this should the nuclear option become a real thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: I'm not sure you are right tbh. Any use of nuclear weapons, even strategic will bring an end to Putin faster than conventional warfare. Nuclear isn't really an option unless Russia is directly attacked. This is why all we've seen from Russia are threats of nuclear escalation and no attacks. They know there will be no way out of this should the nuclear option become a real thing. For all the reasons listed it’s unlikely, but Putin / Russia haven’t even come close to desperation point yet and I shudder to think of what they’ll do once it is reached. This is a nation for whom saving face and appearing strong is paramount, to what ends they’ll go to demonstrate that who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 12, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: but Putin / Russia haven’t even come close to desperation point yet They absolutely have They've just been routed in one region, masses of troops are rumoured to be surrendering in another, newly established regiments are refusing to go to Ukraine and are now officially not being sent, Putin has run for the hills (his mansion in Sochi), Russian politicians it its two major cities are openly calling for him to resign, even some of his TV Nutjobs are pretty much saying openly on TV that the situation in Ukraine is fubarred, the troops actually in battle are totally demoralised.... What else needs to happen for him to become desperate? They stopped threatening nukes ages ago because it was a bluff and that bluff got called 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: For all the reasons listed it’s unlikely, but Putin / Russia haven’t even come close to desperation point yet and I shudder to think of what they’ll do once it is reached. This is a nation for whom saving face and appearing strong is paramount, to what ends they’ll go to demonstrate that who knows. Nuclear warfare in 2022 is seriously not an option. Putin cannot/will not imo be able to launch a nuclear strike on anyone without an internal coup. I think he also knows that, in a similar way that if he escalates into full mobilisation the countdown on his position starts and ends pretty soon after. I think he's fully aware of this. Nuclear in this day and age, even the idiots realise its over for them too. Putin is a bully, plain and simple. If you allow him, he'll come in and take everything away, rob you blind. Stand up to bullies and 9 times out of 10 their backside will fall out. Putin is no madman only a bully and not a very good one imo. I also don't think 99% of Russians give a shit about saving face in Ukraine when most didn't want to be there and would be happy to pull out. The only ones pushing this face-saving nonsense is the Russian propaganda machine. The reason for that is if Russia do get pushed out of Ukraine totally, then they're paymaster won't be around much longer after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, bickster said: I've only just come across this account but seems worthy of a follow.Latest tweet is yet another about Kherson Troops possible surrender. Good maps that explain things clearly Once the Ukranian Army gets to the river in Kherson, do they then control half of Kherson? How will they take the other half when they’ve destroyed all the bridges across the river? Edited September 12, 2022 by ender4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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