Genie Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 We need to see some footage of Russians surrendering or running away. That will be humiliating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 10, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2022 1 minute ago, sidcow said: Thing is, if this is what happens with the volunteer troops. How are the conscripted troops going to act if Putin is forced down that route? They're going to be less motivated than this lot who are currently running away. A lot of these aren't volunteer troops, a lot of them are LNR/DNR people who've been pressganged into the army by the local militias, which is why a lot of them have just run away at the first sign of potential death As much as Russia hasn't mobilized, the LNR/DNR areas have 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post LondonLax Posted September 10, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted September 10, 2022 43 minutes ago, Genie said: We need to see some footage of Russians surrendering or running away. That will be humiliating. I saw this one yesterday: 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Does anyone know when fighting basically dies down for the winter? Sounds like within the next few weeks the battle lines will basically be set for a few months by the cold weather? Imagine Ukraine benefits from that because it gives them the narrative boost to convince allies that it’s worth persevering with sanctions, weapon supplies, cash, etc because there is now clear light at the end of the tunnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Does anyone know when fighting basically dies down for the winter? Sounds like within the next few weeks the battle lines will basically be set for a few months by the cold weather? Imagine Ukraine benefits from that because it gives them the narrative boost to convince allies that it’s worth persevering with sanctions, weapon supplies, cash, etc because there is now clear light at the end of the tunnel So as far as I understand it, the problem is actually rain. When the ground is soft it’s hard to use armoured vehicles due to the mud, but in proper winter the ground is frozen solid and it’s viable again. So it’s probably dependent on when the rains come but most commentators are saying in the next month or two. I’m not sure you worded your post correctly because winter and rain is bad for the Ukrainians given they’re on the front foot now and Europe will be suffering with a gas crisis, but it sounds like you knew that already. The success of this offensive pretty much guarantees the Western world will stay the course now, so yeah it’s certainly a huge victory in that sense too. Not really sure where the Russians go from here tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: So as far as I understand it, the problem is actually rain. When the ground is soft it’s hard to use armoured vehicles due to the mud, but in proper winter the ground is frozen solid and it’s viable again. So it’s probably dependent on when the rains come but most commentators are saying in the next month or two. I’m not sure you worded your post correctly because winter and rain is bad for the Ukrainians given they’re on the front foot now and Europe will be suffering with a gas crisis, but it sounds like you knew that already. The success of this offensive pretty much guarantees the Western world will stay the course now, so yeah it’s certainly a huge victory in that sense too. Not really sure where the Russians go from here tbh. I meant Ukraine benefits from the narrative victory of visible progress ahead of a tough winter. Not that Ukraine actually benefits from the winter itself. My point being that if it had been a stalemate up to the cessation of intense fighting, Putin’s gas supply ploy would have caused a lot of political problems for European leaders. But now politicians and voters in Europe can see that there is hope if we just stick out one economically tough winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Anthony Posted September 10, 2022 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted September 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, LondonLax said: I saw this one yesterday: Bugger. I saw this yesterday too. Spent ages looking for it and then Genie's comment, so I could reply with it. You beat me to it. Bastard. I hate you. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: So as far as I understand it, the problem is actually rain. When the ground is soft it’s hard to use armoured vehicles due to the mud, but in proper winter the ground is frozen solid and it’s viable again. So it’s probably dependent on when the rains come but most commentators are saying in the next month or two. I’m not sure you worded your post correctly because winter and rain is bad for the Ukrainians given they’re on the front foot now and Europe will be suffering with a gas crisis, but it sounds like you knew that already. The success of this offensive pretty much guarantees the Western world will stay the course now, so yeah it’s certainly a huge victory in that sense too. Not really sure where the Russians go from here tbh. And sorry, re the weather - yes the rain thing was mentioned a lot in relation to the failed advance on Kyiv, had forgotten about that. I heard that a big problem in winter, though, will be actually keeping the troops warm enough - ie they need to be supplied with warm clothes, food, fuel for heating, etc. So if forces on either side are stretched, they may have to slow things down dramatically as the weather gets colder. Also, wondering how much subzero weather would slow down road & rail resupplies - especially if Ukraine are succeeding in cutting off key communication lines. I know nothing about military strategy, but the thing i’ve noticed following the war is that the pundits who have consistently made the most accurate predictions (to my non-expert mind) have been the ones who are clued up on military logistics and supply chains, rather than the ones focusing on high level politics or low level military tactics. Particularly like this guy - just seems to consistently have interesting perspectives on the conflict that turn out to be correct: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted September 10, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2022 Starting to hit the news now after the initial (requested by Ukraine) media blackout. Go Ukraine! Ukrainian forces have entered the key eastern town of Kupiansk, as their rapid counter-attack makes further gains, officials say. Kupiansk is a vital supply hub for Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and fell a week after February's invasion. Ukrainian special forces posted photos to social media which they said showed their officers in the town. The advances would be the most significant since Russia withdrew from areas around Kyiv in April. If confirmed - and held - the gains would be used as a sign that Ukraine's army can take back Russian-occupied territory, while the country continues to ask for military support from the West. BBC News 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 10, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2022 Not stopping. This place is 30km from Sverodonetsk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 I don’t think they will nor should but what would happen if Ukraine decided not to stop at the border and continued pushing on into Russia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: I don’t think they will nor should but what would happen if Ukraine decided not to stop at the border and continued pushing on into Russia? They’d be justified firing missiles etc into Russian territory if it’s military targets, supply lines, etc. I doubt they’d want to physically encroach into Russian territory, though. Imagine NATO will be keen to avoid this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 10, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2022 Pinch of salt time but there are Russian telegram channels reporting that Ukraine have taken Donetsk Airport. That seems somewhat incredulous but there are multiple Russian sources. Donestsk Airport has been under RUssian control since 2015 and had two huge battles there. If they have retaken it, that is massively symbolic It also means Ukraine are pushing forward in a completely different direction again But like I said, pinch of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted September 10, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villarule123 Posted September 10, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2022 At this rate they'll be pushing for Moscow by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, villarule123 said: At this rate they'll be pushing for Moscow by Christmas. That would be great, reunite the countries once more, but as Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 10, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2022 There is seemingly no stopping this. Thats pretty much the whole of the Kharkiv Oblast liberated There doesn't appear to be much in the way of actual fighting going on. Lots of running for home and leaving all kinds of stuff behind. Reports of 50 abandoned tanks in Izyum alone It appears to be full on retreat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 10, 2022 Moderator Share Posted September 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 1 hour ago, bickster said: Pinch of salt time but there are Russian telegram channels reporting that Ukraine have taken Donetsk Airport. That seems somewhat incredulous but there are multiple Russian sources. Donestsk Airport has been under RUssian control since 2015 and had two huge battles there. If they have retaken it, that is massively symbolic It also means Ukraine are pushing forward in a completely different direction again But like I said, pinch of salt Any more on this? A lot of people saying it sounds unlikely, but why would this info be coming out if there wasn’t a grain of truth in it? Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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