Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Awol]

@magnkarl I’m not read up on the thread so may be repeating what others have said, but a few thoughts:

LNR / DNR are not republics, but areas of occupied Ukraine run by Russia’s security service. Torture and abuse of the civilian population is endemic in all areas Russia currently occupies, basically everywhere is Bucha.

Most of the West now understands this at the political level so the reconquest of all Ukrainian territory is the desired outcome, not a return to pre-24th Feb lines leaving Russia in control of large swathes of Ukraine.

Ukraine will hopefully retake Kherson before the autumn rains, but any general counter-offensive will likely not come before winter - once the freeze occurs and the ground is suitable for mechanized warfare. Between now and then the West (or those countries more concerned with ending a genocide in Europe than their own narrow economic interests) will have to reequip the UAF with APCs/IFVs and MBTs on a massive scale, enabling them to fight the battles necessary to evict the invaders. 

That issue of scale is the part most western politicians are yet to fully internalise, but it’s being explained to them by various advisors in words of one syllable.

Only Germany and the US have sufficient stocks of the vehicle types needed, so while Scholz and the SPD remain in power it will come down to the Americans to provide the bulk of the new land warfare kit. And F16s, which are necessary to allow that kind of ground fight to occur - or Russian air forces will chop up all that newly donated armour and defeat any counter-offensive.

Biden is on a journey to making those right calls and is slowly getting it, but we’re not all the way there yet. This isn’t so surprising because all the prior assumptions of post-1990 western policy makers were based on a war of this scale and nature (the attempt to delete a European state and a nationality from the world map) being impossible. Those who saw the world differently pre-24th of Feb this year should take no comfort in having been proven right. What’s happening to Ukrainians is staggeringly evil.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Awol

[magnkarl]

50 minutes ago, Awol said:

@magnkarl I’m not read up on the thread so may be repeating what others have said, but a few thoughts:

LNR / DNR are not republics, but areas of occupied Ukraine run by Russia’s security service. Torture and abuse of the civilian population is endemic in all areas Russia currently occupies, basically everywhere is Bucha.

Most of the West now understands this at the political level so the reconquest of all Ukrainian territory is the desired outcome, not a return to pre-24th Feb lines leaving Russia in control of large swathes of Ukraine.

Ukraine will hopefully retake Kherson before the autumn rains, but any general counter-offensive will likely not come before winter - once the freeze occurs and the ground is suitable for mechanized warfare. Between now and then the West (or those countries more concerned with ending a genocide in Europe than their own narrow economic interests) will have to reequip the UAF with APCs/IFVs and MBTs on a massive scale, enabling them to fight the battles necessary to evict the invaders. 

That issue of scale is the part most western politicians are yet to fully internalise, but it’s being explained to them by various advisors in words of one syllable.

Only Germany and the US have sufficient stocks of the vehicle types needed, so while Scholz and the SPD remain in power it will come down to the Americans to provide the bulk of the new land warfare kit. And F16s, which are necessary to allow that kind of ground fight to occur - or Russian air forces will chop up all that newly donated armour and defeat any counter-offensive.

Biden is on a journey to making those right calls and is slowly getting it, but we’re not all the way there yet. This isn’t so surprising because all the prior assumptions of post-1990 western policy makers were based on a war of this scale and nature (the attempt to delete a European state and a nationality from the world map) being impossible. Those who saw the world differently pre-24th of Feb this year should take no comfort in having been proven right. What’s happening to Ukrainians is staggeringly evil.

Do you think Russia actually has the air power to defeat a counter attack? From what I gather so far Russia hasn't been very good at using their air power, and a few people are even wondering if Russia has the planes available to do what i.e. America would do in the same situation. Russian jets are being blown out of the sky nearly daily, to me it appears like Ukraine are slowly but surely starting to make Russian planes stay well out of contact zones. NASAMs and probably Iris is causing this, but I'm not sure if Iris has been delivered yet.

[ender4]

Will Ukraine run out of weapons as well? Smaller countries must be getting to the limit of what they can provide, Germany refusing to give weapons, no idea what the French are doing. 

Is it all falling to the USA to provide weapons? What happens when they reach their limit (politically)?

[bickster]

19 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Germany refusing to give weapons, no idea what the French are doing

The first German Gepards (anti aircraft tanks essentially) actually arrived in Ukraine yesterday, the French have supplied Caesar 155mm Howitzers

[Demitri_C]

Russia allegedly tuening off the taps for Europe tomorrow

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Russia allegedly tuening off the taps for Europe tomorrow

They’re reducing supply again.

I think this goes together with the comments from the Foreign Minister the other day that they want to end the war, keeping what they have stolen.

They are using grain supply into Africa and gas into Europe to persuade the world to agree to a ceasefire.

[ender4]

Just now, Genie said:

They’re reducing supply again.

I think this goes together with the comments from the Foreign Minister the other day that they want to end the war, keeping what they have stolen.

They are using grain supply into Africa and gas into Europe to persuade the world to agree to a ceasefire.

Yep, i can certainly see them being happy with the land they have taken.  Agree a ceasefire now, consolidate in the regions they have taken, ease sanctions, rebuild their military... and then in 5 years time come back for more land. 

[avfc1982am]

16 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Yep, i can certainly see them being happy with the land they have taken.  Agree a ceasefire now, consolidate in the regions they have taken, ease sanctions, rebuild their military... and then in 5 years time come back for more land. 

What do you mean agree to a ceasefire? Why should Ukraine agree to anything unless the Russians are willing to pull back pre 24/02? 

It's seems the only people wishing for the ceasefire are the aggressors or those inconvenienced by the war. I don't think Ukraine can agree to a ceasefire. If they do Zelenskkys government is finished. If I was Ukrainian and my family had been destroyed along with my home, nobody would be able to surrender or give up on my behalf. I'm sure millions of Ukrainians feel this way.  

Russia will blackmail and use whatever means to force the western countries hand in this. Which is precisely what they are doing. Making friends with Iran, cry to Africa, "It's their fault your starving". Chat shit about taking other Countries. Russia are showing weakness, not strength and Ukraine should agree to nothing until Russia turn about face and back off. 

 

[Awol]

3 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Do you think Russia actually has the air power to defeat a counter attack? From what I gather so far Russia hasn't been very good at using their air power, and a few people are even wondering if Russia has the planes available to do what i.e. America would do in the same situation. Russian jets are being blown out of the sky nearly daily, to me it appears like Ukraine are slowly but surely starting to make Russian planes stay well out of contact zones. NASAMs and probably Iris is causing this, but I'm not sure if Iris has been delivered yet.

Russia isn’t running out of aircraft, and what is being shot down by Ukraine is mostly still done with MANPADS.

NASAMs hasn’t been deliver yet, IRIS-T is going to be newly manufactured (Scholz chose not to provide systems from German stocks and hasn’t even signed off the finance to begin production, due three weeks ago). Even when they come in Ukraine will hold those back to protect the major cities. 

Russia could rip chunks out of an armoured force without air cover and Ukraine is being very careful not to throw away its troops.

If the US delivers ATACAMS allowing Ukraine to hold Russian occupied airfields at risk then that will make a difference, but the bottom line is they need an air superiority fighter. Rumour is that training has been ongoing for some time so hopefully that’s true and we’ll see them over Ukraine soon. F16 would be a game changer for the ground fight.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

Russia isn’t running out of aircraft

Maybe not but (I am guessing this) to keep an aircraft in the air completing objectives day in day out you need a few things to be available all the time.  Pilots, ammo, spare parts, repairs, fuel and reliable command and communications. 

Without any of these it doesn't fly effectively?

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Maybe not but (I am guessing this) to keep an aircraft in the air completing objectives day in day out you need a few things to be available all the time.  Pilots, ammo, spare parts, repairs, fuel and reliable command and communications. 

Without any of these it doesn't fly effectively?

You forgot a plentiful supply of Garmin Satnavs  

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

You forgot a plentiful supply of Garmin Satnavs  

Do they use it on their mobile or have they a portable car version that they plug straight into the cigarette lighter ? 

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

You forgot a plentiful supply of Garmin Satnavs  

And duct tape

[bickster]

Just now, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Do they use it on their mobile or have they a portable car version that they plug straight into the cigarette lighter ? 

The one I saw was the plug in sort

[blandy]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

The one I saw was the plug in sort

Whereas our lot like using iPads with Foreflight apps, the scamps.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

11 minutes ago, blandy said:

Whereas our lot like using iPads with Foreflight apps, the scamps.

I didn't know what Foreflight was,  just had a look.
It's not an App that someone has thrown together in a shed on the weekends or when the wife is at her sisters.  Could be wrong.

[Awol]

51 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Maybe not but (I am guessing this) to keep an aircraft in the air completing objectives day in day out you need a few things to be available all the time.  Pilots, ammo, spare parts, repairs, fuel and reliable command and communications. 

Without any of these it doesn't fly effectively?

Correct. The continuing air strikes by Russia against Ukrainian positions points to the fact they are able to maintain their aircraft. 

[magnkarl]

33 minutes ago, Awol said:

Correct. The continuing air strikes by Russia against Ukrainian positions points to the fact they are able to maintain their aircraft. 

But these air strikes are mostly done by old TU bombers near the Caspian, no? These will be much easier to maintain as they make a short trip up to dispose of their missiles and land again. The presence of fighter aircraft over Ukraine is not big at all, and the general wear and tear on these airplanes is bigger isn’t it?

Edited July 26, 2022 by magnkarl

[Mandy Lifeboats]

The main problem seems to be the lack of integration and communication between different Russian units.  
 

If a US infantryman spots a new target the US can hit that target within 1 hour.  The US estimate the same action for for Russia units takes an average of 24 hours.  That’s due to long command chains and only senior officers having any authority to use expensive weapons.  
 

The example I saw was Russia trying to take out a bridge.  They fired 2 cruise missiles which failed.  The following day they fired 2 more.  In contrast, the US cruise missiles have a video feed. If they fail it’s known immediately.  A relatively low ranking officer also has the authority to fire more missiles to get the job done.  
 

 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The main problem seems to be the lack of integration and communication between different Russian units.  
 

If a US infantryman spots a new target the US can hit that target within 1 hour.  The US estimate the same action for for Russia units takes an average of 24 hours.  That’s due to long command chains and only senior officers having any authority to use expensive weapons.  
 

The example I saw was Russia trying to take out a bridge.  They fired 2 cruise missiles which failed.  The following day they fired 2 more.  In contrast, the US cruise missiles have a video feed. If they fail it’s known immediately.  A relatively low ranking officer also has the authority to fire more missiles to get the job done.  
 

 

And in a roundabout way... they are running out of experienced high ranking officers.... because they keep sending them to the front to make decisions