Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Awol]

4 hours ago, magnkarl said:

A question for you mate, how many days of 'pushing' do you think Russia's army has in them before they run out of steam again like around Kyiv? It'll be interesting to see what happens once French/German/Swedish/British AA and long range artillery systems are deployed after the training period (France reporting in about a week's time for their systems).

I don’t know how long they can keep going with this offensive, but would estimate it’s a matter of weeks not months. When it does reach its culminating point they’ll be very vulnerable to quickly being rolled back if Ukraine has the forces available to counter-attack. The arty will be crucial as you say. 

Edit: Putin’s biggest problem is manpower and reportedly his army isn’t far from shooting its bolt. If he continues publicly insisting Russia will reach its objectives then he’ll need more soldiers. That means general mobilisation and a declaration of war against Ukraine. Mass mobilisation is unlikely to be popular domestically so if he goes that way, they might try a pretty spectacular false flag attack within Russia to justify such a move. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Awol

[Awol]

Putin sending peace vibes to the UN Secretary General in Kyiv

 

[OutByEaster?]

You know that weird bit of Russia that isn't attached to the rest of it, the bit north of Poland by the sea?

I wonder how they feel about the war? Are they more westernised, do they get their news from different sources, do they feel less Russian and more European?

Would now be a good time to perhaps unsettle them a little, see if they might be interested in a little bit of independence and joining NATO?

 

[Awol]

Just now, OutByEaster? said:

You know that weird bit of Russia that isn't attached to the rest of it, the bit north of Poland by the sea?

I wonder how they feel about the war? Are they more westernised, do they get their news from different sources, do they feel less Russian and more European?

Would now be a good time to perhaps unsettle them a little, see if they might be interested in a little bit of independence and joining NATO?

 

Kaliningrad is one huge military base. The original population were driven out by Russia at the end of the war and replaced by Russian migrants. Russia has nukes there and its whole purpose is to menace NATO from the heart of the Baltic region. 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

Kaliningrad is one huge military base. The original population were driven out by Russia at the end of the war and replaced by Russian migrants. Russia has nukes there and its whole purpose is to menace NATO from the heart of the Baltic region. 

Yep, I think I told this story before.

Short version, it the 90s I was on tour in the Soviet Union, Glasnost times. We were on a train going through the Polish / USSR border, when they changed the wheels on the coaches at the border (different gauges - work that out for stupid, don't change trains, change the wheels) the border guards come on and check your passports. We were with a couple of Polish lads who were in a band from Gydinia who'd latched onto us thinking we'd make a decent cover for their gold smuggling operation and boy did they hit paydirt. Border guard checked two passports out of ten, smiled and sheepishly left quickly, which we thought was odd. The Polish lads asked to see our passports because they were absolutely shocked at what happened. Pissed themselves laughing when they realised we had Kaliningrad on our visas. They said the only people allowed to go there were the military and the KGB generally and we clearly weren't in the Russian Military. We originally were meant to go there but that gig was cancelled before we even set off but not before we'd had the visas put in our passports

Yep the border guards saw that and just backed off completely. Biggest spook town in the world and I doubt it's changed

[avfc1982am]

Any attack on Russia needs to come from within. More military and infrastructure targets, more unsettling of the Russian population. They may not be so willing to support this beyond the 9th May if things are becoming a little fractured. 

[magnkarl]

For me May 9th can go several ways.

a) Putin lies about having achieved huge victories in Ukraine with tanks from 1942 driving past him as the rest are being towed by Ukrainian farmers.

b) Putin admits that they are now at war with Ukraine and maybe even NATO so he’s going to have to start mobilising the population.

c) Putin makes a cool video with North Korean style idiotic shades and leather jacket, while unveiling some sort of nuke that still doesn’t change the situation, raises his fist towards Stockholm and Helsinki and says they ‘better not join NATO.’ 

d) Putin goes on ‘holiday’ for an extended period and the country goes into civil war.

[chrisp65]

Really looking forward to whatever bit of PR genius Ukraine has planned for the early hours of May 9th.

[Jareth]

The lend lease act has passed - US about to pour weapons and equipment into Ukraine. Good. 

[ender4]

6 minutes ago, Jareth said:

The lend lease act has passed - US about to pour weapons and equipment into Ukraine. Good. 

What does this mean?

[Jareth]

3 minutes ago, ender4 said:

What does this mean?

That the US officially views Ukraine's battle as defending the interests of democracy and therefore the interests of the US, Ukraine become a country that's military is effectively equipped by the US. Of course it remains to be seen how much they send, but I have a feeling it will be a shit load, and for as long as it takes. As they said earlier - they are defending democracy and China is watching. 

[avfc1982am]

Basically a revival of an act Roosevelt passed during WW2 to arm and aid the allies without intervention on the ground. The US are basically going to arm the Ukraine to the max

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

That the US officially views Ukraine's battle as defending the interests of democracy and therefore the interests of the US, Ukraine become a country that's military is effectively equipped by the US. Of course it remains to be seen how much they send, but I have a feeling it will be a shit load, and for as long as it takes. As they said earlier - they are defending democracy and China is watching. 

Another 30billion to start. They've currently provided in the first 2 months 14 billion in aid/arms. Well they're now going to double it and keep going. Ukraine are going to get armed to the teeth now.

[Awol]

Get in. This is why it’s worth putting up with all of the f**kery, because when it’s really serious there’s no substitute for US economic weight and productive capacity. It’s game over now for Putin, the only question is how much he will make Ukraine and Russia’s own people suffer on the road to their defeat. 

[Jareth]

7 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Another 30billion to start. They've currently provided in the first 2 months 14 billion in aid/arms. Well they're now going to double it and keep going. Ukraine are going to get armed to the teeth now.

Apparantly they began the process in January, as a deterent to Putin - clearly ignored. Russia surely are going to struggle now to match the sheer tech and quantity of it - maybe despite all the rhetoric they'll start thinking about how to exit this war. Which I assume is the US strategy in action. 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

maybe despite all the rhetoric they'll start thinking about how to exit this war.

Sadly Putin doesn't have an off ramp because of all his false rhetoric. He really is going to have to be driven out

[Awol]

In one of their televised therapy sessions, a bunch of psychotic Russians are brought back to earth by the reality that the UK has a nuclear deterrent. This is why we sink the money into Trident, which btw, are the only nuclear weapons assigned to the defence of all NATO nations - the US and French arsenals are not.

 

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Sadly Putin doesn't have an off ramp because of all his false rhetoric. He really is going to have to be driven out

I think this is the crux of the issue. He will decimate Russia until Russians resist. It's really that simple. The way he was smirking at Guterres yesterday, he really doesn't care. It's very ego driven now and with China and other pro Russian Countries he's going to have to live up to the rhetoric he's been spewing. What does concern me is the lack of escape route for Russia under him, they're really isn't one that allows Putin to back off. I think this is going to be a long long game and Russia will need to suffer massively to oust him.

[avfc1982am]

6 minutes ago, Awol said:

In one of their televised therapy sessions, a bunch of psychotic Russians are brought back to earth by the reality that the UK has a nuclear deterrent. This is why we sink the money into Trident, which btw, are the only nuclear weapons assigned to the defence of all NATO nations - the US and French arsenals are not.

 

Serious dickheads including the blokebird. Also I didn't realise Graham Souness was part Russian. Always wondered why he was such a dirty ba.........!

[Jareth]

Russia were pre-empting the lend lease decision earlier, by saying to their own that the US and Poland planned to invade Western Ukraine - which is now effectively what will happen in equipment terms anyway. Surely Putin's off ramp here is to grab what he can before the tide turns, consolidate, and then claim the rest of Ukraine is beyond saving.