Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sidcow]

30 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

It's such a shame, we seem to be moving further and further away from the idea of a negotiated peace here and closer and closer to a never ending accidental-proxy war, cheered on by those that find loud bangs and men with big guns ever so slightly arousing.

 

 

I found it hilarious when Russia yesterday accused the west of effecting a proxy War........ **** me, you're involved in an ACTUAL war you friggin knob heads.

[Walmley_Villa]

One way to tell if the Russians are lying..................their lips move

[Awol]

A good (but long-ish) thread on current tensions and views within the Russian elite. 

 

 

[ml1dch]

57 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

It's such a shame, we seem to be moving further and further away from the idea of a negotiated peace here and closer and closer to a never ending accidental-proxy war, cheered on by those that find loud bangs and men with big guns ever so slightly arousing.

When the aim of one of the parties is the obliteration of the other, there is limited scope for mutually agreeable negotiating aims. 

[theunderstudy]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

It's such a shame, we seem to be moving further and further away from the idea of a negotiated peace here and closer and closer to a never ending accidental-proxy war, cheered on by those that find loud bangs and men with big guns ever so slightly arousing.

 

 

To be honest I fail to see what peace could be negotiated especially by a man like Putin. Russia wants Ukraine under control, Ukraine won't cede their country's territory to Russia, this war ends with total defeat of Ukraine or the Russians retreating. Public. The only thing this conflict has done is humiliate Russia on the international stage and push nations like Sweden and Finland almost certainly into NATO. The Russians may well be in a "proxy war with NATO" but this is entirely due to their actual war with another country bordering 4 NATO nations. 

I can't see any peaceful resolution any time soon as long as Putin is making decisions and Ukraine will not compromise their freedom for peace from the Russians either as they will want to drive them out of their country.

[Mozzavfc]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

Austria has buckled and will start paying the Kremlin in Rubles for its natural gas. Which way Germany falls on this is going to huge, either refusing and taking the economic hit (for a ridiculous energy policy their allies begged them not to adopt), or fold to Russian demands and destroy what remains of its reputation with allies and partners.

Tough spot, but I don’t remember Germany telling Greece it could take its time adjusting its economy to avoid excess economic pain…

I think this falls into the weird area of EU paying for gas in Euros and then Russia instantly converting it to Rubles. EU decided last week that it isn't breach of sanctions, as it forces Russia to pay the exchange fees. Guess it keeps both side relatively happy and saves face

[bickster]

The other thing of course is that before Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine wasn't being allowed into NATO

If they can manage to regain all their territory including Crimea, you'd suspect that Ukraine will also join NATO

Making Russias NATO Border Huge with not enough troops and equipment to adequately to adequately defend it.

I can also see Belarus toppling the current puppet state at some point when Russia can't afford to prop it up, it's already on the verge

Putin will have realised his worst fears by starting this war

[Awol]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

I can also see Belarus toppling the current puppet state at some point when Russia can't afford to prop it up, it's already on the verge

Exactly. Lukashenko survived losing the last election through repression backed implicitly by Russian power. The battalions of Belarusian volunteers fighting Russia in Ukraine are open about taking the fight home once Ukraine is liberated.

This war will reshape Europe for good or ill and whether NATO is ultimately dragged in remains to be seen. It is interesting though that the westerners most likely to proclaim their anti-fascism seem the least capable of recognising real fascism when it attacks, even after the genocide has begun. 

[Genie]

It feels like the war in Ukraine will run as long as the Americans see fit. They want Russia to pump all their assets into it and be left with nothing.

When the time comes we might see a change of rhetoric and emphasis from “the West” but for now it seems like Russia is running itself into the ground and everyone else is reasonably comfortable watching it happen.

 

[mjmooney]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

It feels like the war in Ukraine will run as long as the Americans see fit. They want Russia to pump all their assets into it and be left with nothing.

When the time comes we might see a change of rhetoric and emphasis from “the West” but for now it seems like Russia is running itself into the ground and everyone else is reasonably comfortable watching it happen.

And surely there are plenty of senior political and military people in Moscow who can see this, and realise Putin needs to be removed? 

[Genie]

1 minute ago, mjmooney said:

And surely there are plenty of senior political and military people in Moscow who can see this, and realise Putin needs to be removed? 

Yes, it must be growing by the day. They must be having high level briefings (where Putin isn’t it the room) discussing how **** they are.

 

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

Yes, it must be growing by the day. They must be having high level briefings (where Putin isn’t it the room) discussing how **** they are.

 

If ‘The Death of Stalin’ is still on Netflix give it a watch. 

1) It’s hilarious

2) You’ll immediately understand why those meetings aren’t happening 

[avfc1982am]

 

[Genie]

Our old director used to tell this story, not sure it really happened but it’s one of those lesson learned ones.

A plane crashed killing all on board, I think it was Korean or other far eastern airline. There was lots of surprise as the pilot was extremely experienced. When they went through all the flight data, black boxes etc it emerged that the very experienced senior pilot was having an off day and made several mistakes. The issue was that it was deeply disrespectful for the junior co-pilot to tell the senior official he was **** up and the end result was the crash.

The outcome was that the senior pilot now doesn’t lead, he watches and advises the more junior co-pilot flying so they don’t have this cultural conflict again.

Most successful business setup this way it seems. The chief / CEO lets his first line run things and he/she watches and rarely steps in. I think Russia is the Korean flight in this example before they changed their processes.

[blandy]

14 minutes ago, Genie said:

It feels like the war in Ukraine will run as long as the Americans see fit

I'm not at all sure that's right.

Of the possible outcomes, none of them are under control of the USA.

1. Russia takes control of the south and east areas and then decides to negotiate from that position - either Ukraine concedes the territory and negotiates or they decide to carry on fighting to try and regain control.

2. Ukraine manages to force Russia out of the currently lost territory and return to the previous borders

3. Neither side gains an upper hand and neither side wishes to negotiate a cease fire

4. Neither side gains an upper hand and both sides negotiate a cease fire.

If the West stop supporting Ukraine, then Ukraine will lose (they may lose anyway), but the West cannot (without Ukraine's agreement) either prolong or end the war, as I see it. The west can tilt the odds more in Ukraine's favour, potentially but there is a limit to how far they can tilt it, without putting NATO forces into Ukraine and there's no sign at all of that happening.

[magnkarl]

The Netherlands taking a big leap and delivering the best howitzers in the world (PzH2000), longer range, rapid moving and essentially made to outgun and outrange Russian artillery. Time to go hunting. The Netherlands are giving all their PzH2000's by the way, just to put Germany, Austria and Belgium's contributions into perspective. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

My personal opinion  is that Ukraine cannot "win".  Russia has deployed a small percentage of its resources to the battle. Ukraine has committed everything.  In a long term conflict Russia might lose individual battles but they can sustain the loses.  Ukraine can't.  Even if the Russian potato rises against Putin, Russia will not give up everything g they have taken from Ukraine.  

The big unknown is how long Putin will remain and who replaces him. A change of leadership would give Russia the chance to blame Putin for the war and appear to be taking a humanitarian stance.  

This could easily turn into a situation similar to what already exists in Cyprus and Korea.  They effectively have buffer zones and a ceasefire that neither side has anything to gain. But neither side has to admit that the struggle is over.  

Europe has been fighting over its borders since history began.  We are sheltered in the UK by our massive moat.  Our borders are incredibly well defined and have been the same for hundreds of years.  The rest of the world is far less defined. 

 

[magnkarl]

13 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

My personal opinion  is that Ukraine cannot "win".  Russia has deployed a small percentage of its resources to the battle. Ukraine has committed everything.  In a long term conflict Russia might lose individual battles but they can sustain the loses.  Ukraine can't.  Even if the Russian potato rises against Putin, Russia will not give up everything g they have taken from Ukraine.  

The big unknown is how long Putin will remain and who replaces him. A change of leadership would give Russia the chance to blame Putin for the war and appear to be taking a humanitarian stance.  

This could easily turn into a situation similar to what already exists in Cyprus and Korea.  They effectively have buffer zones and a ceasefire that neither side has anything to gain. But neither side has to admit that the struggle is over.  

Europe has been fighting over its borders since history began.  We are sheltered in the UK by our massive moat.  Our borders are incredibly well defined and have been the same for hundreds of years.  The rest of the world is far less defined. 

 

The sentence above isn't really true though is it. 

200.000 soldiers is all of Russia's offensive capability if they want to guard their NATO borders too. Russia has lost most of their modern equipment, can't control the skies and are hemorrhaging equipment at a colossal rate. 

I don't think the mindset of a massive amount of gear and soldiers capable for modern war still being withheld in Russia is true, neither do many experts. Remember that for every 1 front line soldier you need 4 support soldiers. Russia has BTG's stationed in Kaliningrad, Karelia, Murmansk, Kamchatka, Vladivostok, South Ossetia, Syria, Derbent ++++.

The reality, especially after losing something like a low estimate 50.000 soldiers so far (pow's, wounded, killed), is that Russia has less manpower than Ukraine. There's no will in the population to mobilise, while everyone in Ukraine wants to fight.

If Russia removes more soldiers from other areas Georgia, Moldova, the opposition in Belarus, Chechnya and Kazakhstan can have a go, and things are likely to collapse from there.

Edited April 27, 2022 by magnkarl

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Russia has deployed a small percentage of its resources to the battle

This is absolutely not correct

[Genie]

33 minutes ago, blandy said:

I'm not at all sure that's right.

Of the possible outcomes, none of them are under control of the USA.

1. Russia takes control of the south and east areas and then decides to negotiate from that position - either Ukraine concedes the territory and negotiates or they decide to carry on fighting to try and regain control.

2. Ukraine manages to force Russia out of the currently lost territory and return to the previous borders

3. Neither side gains an upper hand and neither side wishes to negotiate a cease fire

4. Neither side gains an upper hand and both sides negotiate a cease fire.

If the West stop supporting Ukraine, then Ukraine will lose (they may lose anyway), but the West cannot (without Ukraine's agreement) either prolong or end the war, as I see it. The west can tilt the odds more in Ukraine's favour, potentially but there is a limit to how far they can tilt it, without putting NATO forces into Ukraine and there's no sign at all of that happening.

My view is that The West is already managing this war. Russia has been pushed out of all non East/South regions due to backing from The West.

Now we have a kind of stalemate with losses on both sides. I think if Russia gets close to fully securing these regions then then intensity and support from Western countries will go up to ensure it doesn’t happen. The US said this week they don’t want this to end soon as they want to ensure Russia is severely weakened when it ends. We aren’t there yet.

All speculation on my part of course but it’s how i’m reading it.